RWC 2011 Predictions

[Me 1]

Pool 1. France New Zealand (New Zealand always lose to France)
Pool 2. England Argentina
Pool 3. Australia Italy
Pool 4. South Africa WALES!

Even if Samoa beat Wales they still have Fiji to beat. I don't see Wales losing to both, and the islanders will find it just as hard to beat both. Wales should destroy Namibia however and that should send us through on points difference even if we lose to one of them.

QF 1 Australia vs. Wales
QF 2 England vs. New Zealand
QF 3 South Africa vs. Italy
QF 4 France vs. Argentina

SF 1 Australia vs. New Zealand
SF 2 South Africa vs. France

Bronze Australia vs. South Africa
Final New Zealand vs. France They've got there loss out of the way

 

[Kingnick]

Pool Predictionsool A 1. New Zealand 2. FrancePool B 1. England 2. Argentina Pool C 1. Australia 2. Ireland Pool D 1. South Africa 2. Samoa Quarter Final Predictions: QF1 - Australia beat SamoaQF2 - England beat FranceQF3 - Ireland beat South AfricaQF4 - New Zealand beat ArgentinaSemi Final Predicitions:SF1 - Australia beat EnglandSF2 - New Zealand beat Ireland3rd Place play-off: Ireland Beat EnglandFinal: Australia beat New Zealand

 

[Melhor Time]

Pool Predicitons:

Pool A: 1. New Zealand, 2. France

Needless to say NZ and France will be the Quarter Finalists and in that order. Three easy wins for both teams against the other teams with Japan to be the next best as the national team continues to improve tremendously under Kirwan.

3. Japan - Qualify for England 2015.

4. Canada. 5. * Tonga.

* First team to open a RWC going through the tournament winless.

Pool B: 1. England, 2, Argentina

England will be pusehd to the limit in the opener but this is not going to be a comfortable win. England to hang on with Arg scoring a bonus point. So many people going for Scotland over Argentina. Interesting. They´ve finally had time together from June to present for the first decent period at all since 2007. The form of various players in different european teams and not the international team (Pumas) is the real guide for me. Argentina have far better players across the park than Scotland. Can´t see Scotland, the worst attacking team in rugby, winning. Scotland will have a tough first week with games vs both Romania and Georgia within five days. Georgia will compete in the forwards.

3. Scotland. Qualify for England 2015.

4. Georgia. 5. Romania

Pool C: Australia, Ireland

Australia have it lucky - no good challenger with a scrum. Italy will be a handful in the opener for them but Australia will power home in the final 20 minutes. Next up vs Ireland could go either way but it should be an Australian win. Thankfully the RWC 2003 disaster schsdule won´t occur again. Who will ever forget Australia scheduling Aus vs Irl on the same weekend as the AFL vs GAA game in Melbourne to cash in. It occured a week after Argentina vs Ireland with Los Pumas already haveing played all four pool games. Italy had a similar unfair one so that NZ vs Wales could be in Sydney. Again, financial motivation. John O´Neill is an expert money maker but a rugby and sports nobody.

The question about this pool is, of course, Italy. The Italian can make the Quarter Fina´s and will give Ireland a massive match last up. Its a shame that Italy have to back up from playing the USA only four days previously but they´ll have had rest time earlier unlike in 2003. Simply, if Ireland don´t play at the top of their game and Italy do then Italy will advance. The USA will be interesting to follow. No chances of the finals but are so much better now than in 2007.

3. Italy, Qualify for England 2015.

4. USA 5. Russia

Pool D: South Africa, Wales

South Africa lucky to have this group. They´ll be too much for Wales and Fiji up front and will love the Samoans,but as always, notch up a 50 point win. Wales are not going to go down this time. Its time to get it right. No loss to either Fiji or Samoa. Time to play smart and not try to score from inside the Welsh 22. Hook at 10 is the first thing to do. No places for the aged players like Martyn Williams. Samoa vs Fiji to be the biggest Pacific Island match either but neither side will make the play-offs and Samoa, in losing will officially be out of contention.

3. Fiji. Qualify for England 2015.

4. Samoa. 5. Namibia.

QF Predictions:

QF1 - Australia v Wales

Could be highly entertaining and should be. Australia´s shakey scrum again doing okay thanks to the opposition with Quade Cooper standing tall as the backs notch up a number of tries. Could be 80 points scored in this match.

QF2 - England v France - le crunch.

France to win this time. Trinh-Duc to totally shut down Flood and the French backrow to be on form. France to win this by 15 points. yes, a big win! England to enter it tired up fronta after defeating Scotland

QF3 - South Africa v Ireland

If RSA play with Morne Steyn and John Smit then Ireland will win. More attacking options and simply a far younger side. RSA need Pienaar at 10, Frans Steyn at 15 and du Plessis at hooker. Healip-Ferris-O´Brian would stand out as worldclass with BOD scoring the winning try in the final 10 minutes.

QF4 - New Zealand v Argentina

Depending on the Argentina strategy it could be a great game or a one sided one.If Los Pumas want to win then they cannot play like they did in 2010. What people seem to forget is Argentina are able to push NZ close when they have their best players avaliable. They drew in 1985 and lost at the death by small scores in 2001 and 2006. The back-three is young and all impressive in Europe. They need the ball! New Zealand to win by something like 25-20.

SF Predicitions:

Guys, the semi finals are to be QF 1 vs QF 2 winner and QF 3 vs QF 4 hence Australia vs New Zealand won´t happen if both win their pools.

SF1 - Australia v France

No repeat of november 2010. This time France will field the right team and get the game plan correct. Time to actually target Cooper and take him out of the game. The right back-three will be there and the frontrow will clearly dominate Australia. France wo win this by 5.

SF2 - New Zealand v Ireland

As said by someone earlier South Africa know how to win these matches but I can´t see a win here sorry. The team is aged and the wrong players are in the mix. NZ don´t lose games against sides kicking goal after goal. They lose when they aren´t allowed to play their own game. The key areas are the breakdown and the centres. The All Blacks are masters at breaking through the midfield, and doing so with many players and not only centres. They need to be shutdown here and South Africa lack the pace in the pack to do it.

But I think Ireland wil win the QF and as such face New Zealand in the Quarter Final. This will be spectacular. Ireland, much younger and with a better back three than New Zealand (if they go for Bowe -Earls- Fitzgerald) could rise up and make history. the issue ie inside centre. D´Arcy needs to left at the airport in Dublin. Make it 12 McFaddyn, 13 BOD. The Irish backrow can compete qwith the All Blacks and it should be even in the secondrow. The frontrow will be advantage NZ but Cian Healy is vastly better than Tony Woodcock. It will all go down to Carter and Williams who are the key. Ireland need to shut them down. McFaddyn tackling well with BOD there to tackle the player receiving the Williams off-load. I´m going to say it. NZ will choke vs Ireland in the semi final. The best every Irish side against an aged All Blacks side

Bronze Final:

Australia vs New Zealand: Neither side to give the occasion justice but hopefully NZ weill do the honorable thing and not cry over the loss like they have done so often.

Final:
Ireland v France

All European - worldwide excitement over this and the fact that it´ll be a new champion. BOD to suddenly be appologized to from the NZ media over the spear tackle from 2005 as France are called cheats and all sorts of the usual stuf that happens after the choke, John Key to pretend all is well. Quite an interesting scenario. Seriously, a plausible final and it would be an awesome game as it always is between these sides. France would win it thanks to the pack, Trinh-Duc and the young try scoring wingers. Dusautoir to lift the Williams Webb-Ellis Cup as BOD announces his international retirement to the media.

Winners: France

 

[Thingimubob]

Pool D: South Africa, Wales

South Africa lucky to have this group. They´ll be too much for Wales and Fiji up front and will love the Samoans,but as always, notch up a 50 point win. Wales are not going to go down this time. Its time to get it right. No loss to either Fiji or Samoa. Time to play smart and not try to score from inside the Welsh 22. Hook at 10 is the first thing to do. No places for the aged players like Martyn Williams. Samoa vs Fiji to be the biggest Pacific Island match either but neither side will make the play-offs and Samoa, in losing will officially be out of contention.

3. Fiji. Qualify for England 2015.

4. Samoa. 5. Namibia.

QF Predictions:

QF1 - Australia v Wales

Could be highly entertaining and should be. Australia´s shakey scrum again doing okay thanks to the opposition with Quade Cooper standing tall as the backs notch up a number of tries. Could be 80 points scored in this match.

Couple of points with this bit of your post...
First up, Wales have matched the Boks up front every time they've played over the past 3 or 4 games, so not quite sure yet that SA will be 'too much for Wales up front'
Disagree with Hook at 10 just yet, all depends on how he plays during the warm ups. He didn't have a great game at 10 against th French, and needs more game time there to really show that he's up to the task of steering the ship in the World Cup. Personally I'm leaning towards Stephen Jones as a starter atm.
Think Wales would be completely stupid to leave out Martyn Williams from the squad, he's our most experienced no.7 (our most experienced forward in general too, and is only beaten on caps by Stephen Jones in the whole squad), though I'd say Warburton is ahead of him atm, Martyn needs to be there for experience from the bench. Wouldn't mind seeing Josh Turnbull have a crack there at some point too.
Lastly have you ever seen the Welsh scrum? With the front row that started for the Lions, and destroyed the Boks scrum? Also the front row that pushed the Aussie scrum all ovver the place last time they played last autumn? Can't quite see where you're coming from that the Wallabies scrum would have an easier time of it against Wales...

 

[Me 1]

Guys, the semi finals are to be QF 1 vs QF 2 winner and QF 3 vs QF 4 hence Australia vs New Zealand won´t happen if both win their pools.

If you were talking about me I said France would top the pool, if not, sorry.

 

[psychic duck]

England will be pusehd to the limit in the opener but this is not going to be a comfortable win. England to hang on with Arg scoring a bonus point. So many people going for Scotland over Argentina. Interesting. They´ve finally had time together from June to present for the first decent period at all since 2007. The form of various players in different european teams and not the international team (Pumas) is the real guide for me. Argentina have far better players across the park than Scotland. Can´t see Scotland, the worst attacking team in rugby, winning.

Scotland beat Argentina away twice in 2010, yes Scotland are dire in attack but Argentina are hardly that good either, how many times did they drop the ball against Ireland in November?

that match in my opinion will come down to the referee's interpretation of the scrums

if he gives the more dominant scrum (Argentina) penalties, they will win

or if he penalizes them constantly despite being dominant like Mark Lawrence did in the Ireland Argentina match, Scotland will win

this match will be similar to the Italy Scotland match at the 2007 World Cup

As said by someone earlier South Africa know how to win these matches but I can´t see a win here sorry. The team is aged and the wrong players are in the mix.

I don't understand your point about Morné Steyn, World Cup knockout matches often come down to penalties, a poor kicking display can often cost teams (Mortlock 2007), and Steyn is the best goal kicker in the world

and how many people slated the England squad in 2007 as being aged and wrong players and yet they got to the final because when teams decided not to take risks and tried to win a dogfight against them (Australia, France) they knew how to win

South Africa are the second best team in the world, but there is one error in selection which makes the pack not work as effectively and it is John Smit

that pack that bullied England in November plus a fit Heinrich Brüssow is capable of winning the World Cup, I'm sure of it

 

[Thingimubob]

Pool Predicitons:



SF2 - New Zealand v Ireland

As said by someone earlier South Africa know how to win these matches but I can´t see a win here sorry. The team is aged and the wrong players are in the mix. NZ don´t lose games against sides kicking goal after goal. They lose when they aren´t allowed to play their own game. The key areas are the breakdown and the centres. The All Blacks are masters at breaking through the midfield, and doing so with many players and not only centres. They need to be shutdown here and South Africa lack the pace in the pack to do it.

But I think Ireland wil win the QF and as such face New Zealand in the Quarter Final. This will be spectacular. Ireland, much younger and with a better back three than New Zealand (if they go for Bowe -Earls- Fitzgerald) could rise up and make history. the issue ie inside centre. D´Arcy needs to left at the airport in Dublin. Make it 12 McFaddyn, 13 BOD. The Irish backrow can compete qwith the All Blacks and it should be even in the secondrow. The frontrow will be advantage NZ but Cian Healy is vastly better than Tony Woodcock. It will all go down to Carter and Williams who are the key. Ireland need to shut them down. McFaddyn tackling well with BOD there to tackle the player receiving the Williams off-load. I´m going to say it. NZ will choke vs Ireland in the semi final. The best every Irish side against an aged All Blacks side

Just noticed this bit too...
Ireland do have a cracking back 3, but better than New Zealand? Not quite. Not only are they fantastic players, but they have a ridiculous amount of them if any gets injured. You've got Muliaina, Hosea Gear, Rokococo, Sivivatu, Guildford and Jane to name but a few.
An 'aged' All Blacks too? I'd say they have a decent mix of youth and experience, the vast majority are in their 20's, with a few around the 30 mark, which isn't that old at all! Irelands team is hardly young, so if you call the All Balcks aged, then exactly the same tag would have to be given to the Irish too.

 

[Melhor Time]

Couple of points with this bit of your post...
First up, Wales have matched the Boks up front every time they've played over the past 3 or 4 games, so not quite sure yet that SA will be 'too much for Wales up front'
Disagree with Hook at 10 just yet, all depends on how he plays during the warm ups. He didn't have a great game at 10 against th French, and needs more game time there to really show that he's up to the task of steering the ship in the World Cup. Personally I'm leaning towards Stephen Jones as a starter atm.
Think Wales would be completely stupid to leave out Martyn Williams from the squad, he's our most experienced no.7 (our most experienced forward in general too, and is only beaten on caps by Stephen Jones in the whole squad), though I'd say Warburton is ahead of him atm, Martyn needs to be there for experience from the bench. Wouldn't mind seeing Josh Turnbull have a crack there at some point too.
Lastly have you ever seen the Welsh scrum? With the front row that started for the Lions, and destroyed the Boks scrum? Also the front row that pushed the Aussie scrum all ovver the place last time they played last autumn? Can't quite see where you're coming from that the Wallabies scrum would have an easier time of it against Wales...

Fair enough and I admit my lineup is not going to be popular with most people.

1. Wales have improved a lot in the frontrow and have done well here against RSA but it has always been against different frontrows and probably not the one that they´ll go for at the RWC. Nov 2010 was 1. Beast, 2. B du Plessis, 3 J du Plessis. June 2010 was 1. van der linde, 2. Smit, 3. Botha. Nov 2008 was 1. Beast, 2. B du Plessis, 3. Smit. Hard to pass much judgement based on this.

2. Hook is certainly a better player than Jones. Hook has more skills and a better impact but Jones is the better thinker. If this were 2009 Jones would be the flyhalf for suer but now not so. For me he is on the bench. Hook has been so badly used by the Osperys. He´ll go on to star for Perpignan while the Ospreys continue to fail to reach their potential with Dan Biggar at flyhalf. Biggar is fourth or fifth chocie for Wales. Should not have been 10 for Ospreys.

3. Martyn Williams simply is not good enough to be there. Sam Warburton is clearly the 7 and there are enough players going around who should be picked ahead of Martyn. He would add valuable experience bit there are better options for the bench like Andy Powell or Ryan Jones. But, in the end they´ll pick Martyn and not guys like Powell. Again, my lineup is not going to go down well with everybody.

4. Josh Turnbull is great but right now I´d go for Rob McCusker over him in the squad.

5. The scrum comment is from the perspective that if Australia vs Wales does happen then Australia woule, like their pool, not have a match against a side which does not have one of the best scrums. For instance, going off my QF´s. England v France - both better. South Africa v Ireland - RSA is better and Ireland have Australia in the pool. New Zealand v Argentina - both better.

6. I´ve prepared an article for www.rugbymania.com.br to go online in about 10 days. The squad I went for is as follows:

Suggested XV:

15 Lee Byrne (Clermont, França)
14 George North (Scarlets)
13 Jamie Roberts (Cardiff Blues)
12 Jonathan Davies (Scarlets)
11 Shane Williams (Ospreys)
10 James Hook (Perpignan, França)
9 Mike Phillips (Bayonne, França)
8 Gareth Delve (Melbourne Rebels, Austrália)
7 Sam Warburton (Cardiff Blues)
6 Dan Lydiate (Newport Gwent Dragons)
5 Alun Wyn-Jones (Ospreys)
4 Bradley Davies (Cardiff Blues)
3 Adam Jones (Ospreys)
2 Matthew Rees capitão (Scarlets)
1 Paul James (Ospreys)


Reserves:
16 Richard Hibbard (Ospreys)
17 Gethin Jenkins (Cardiff Blues)
18 Jonathan Thomas (Ospreys)
19 Ryan Jones (Ospreys)
20 Richie Rees (Cardiff Blues)
21 Stephen Jones (Scarlets)
22 Leigh Halfpenny (Cardiff Blues).

23 Huw Bennett (Ospreys), 24 Craig Mitchell (Exeter Chiefs, England), 25 Luke Chateris (Newport Gwent Dragons), 26 Andy Powell (Sale Sharks, England), 26 Rob McCusker (Scarlets), 27 Dwayne Peel (Sale Sharks, England), 28 Jason Toovey (Newport Gwent Dragons), 29 Andrew Bishop (Ospreys), 30 Morgan Stoddard (Scarlets).

 

[ZeFrenchy]

^^ I think it's the first tme ever that I see someone picking Paul James over Gethin Jenkins. And I hope it's the last one.

 

[OptimisticJock]

POOL A - France New Zealand
POOL B - Scotland England
POOL C - Australia Ireland
POOL D - South Africa Wales

QF1 - Australia v Wales
QF2 - Scotland v New Zealand
QF3 - South Africa v Ireland
QF4 - France v England

SF1 - Australia v New Zealand
SF2 - South Africa v England

Bronze - Australia v England

Final - New Zealand v South Africa

This is, of course, not the way it will really happen. Scotland will be triumphant throughout. Arise Sir Andy Robinson and Sir Chris Paterson

 

[Thingimubob]

Fair enough and I admit my lineup is not going to be popular with most people.

1. Wales have improved a lot in the frontrow and have done well here against RSA but it has always been against different frontrows and probably not the one that they´ll go for at the RWC. Nov 2010 was 1. Beast, 2. B du Plessis, 3 J du Plessis. June 2010 was 1. van der linde, 2. Smit, 3. Botha. Nov 2008 was 1. Beast, 2. B du Plessis, 3. Smit. Hard to pass much judgement based on this.

2. Hook is certainly a better player than Jones. Hook has more skills and a better impact but Jones is the better thinker. If this were 2009 Jones would be the flyhalf for suer but now not so. For me he is on the bench. Hook has been so badly used by the Osperys. He´ll go on to star for Perpignan while the Ospreys continue to fail to reach their potential with Dan Biggar at flyhalf. Biggar is fourth or fifth chocie for Wales. Should not have been 10 for Ospreys.

3. Martyn Williams simply is not good enough to be there. Sam Warburton is clearly the 7 and there are enough players going around who should be picked ahead of Martyn. He would add valuable experience bit there are better options for the bench like Andy Powell or Ryan Jones. But, in the end they´ll pick Martyn and not guys like Powell. Again, my lineup is not going to go down well with everybody.

4. Josh Turnbull is great but right now I´d go for Rob McCusker over him in the squad.

5. The scrum comment is from the perspective that if Australia vs Wales does happen then Australia woule, like their pool, not have a match against a side which does not have one of the best scrums. For instance, going off my QF´s. England v France - both better. South Africa v Ireland - RSA is better and Ireland have Australia in the pool. New Zealand v Argentina - both better.

6. I´ve prepared an article for www.rugbymania.com.br to go online in about 10 days. The squad I went for is as follows:

Suggested XV:

15 Lee Byrne (Clermont, França)
14 George North (Scarlets)
13 Jamie Roberts (Cardiff Blues)
12 Jonathan Davies (Scarlets)
11 Shane Williams (Ospreys)
10 James Hook (Perpignan, França)
9 Mike Phillips (Bayonne, França)
8 Gareth Delve (Melbourne Rebels, Austrália)
7 Sam Warburton (Cardiff Blues)
6 Dan Lydiate (Newport Gwent Dragons)
5 Alun Wyn-Jones (Ospreys)
4 Bradley Davies (Cardiff Blues)
3 Adam Jones (Ospreys)
2 Matthew Rees capitão (Scarlets)
1 Paul James (Ospreys)


Reserves:
16 Richard Hibbard (Ospreys)
17 Gethin Jenkins (Cardiff Blues)
18 Jonathan Thomas (Ospreys)
19 Ryan Jones (Ospreys)
20 Richie Rees (Cardiff Blues)
21 Stephen Jones (Scarlets)
22 Leigh Halfpenny (Cardiff Blues).

23 Huw Bennett (Ospreys), 24 Craig Mitchell (Exeter Chiefs, England), 25 Luke Chateris (Newport Gwent Dragons), 26 Andy Powell (Sale Sharks, England), 26 Rob McCusker (Scarlets), 27 Dwayne Peel (Sale Sharks, England), 28 Jason Toovey (Newport Gwent Dragons), 29 Andrew Bishop (Ospreys), 30 Morgan Stoddard (Scarlets).

1. Am expecting the scrum to be relatively the same with Wales v SA, was more on about the contact areas

2.They're completely different players, Hook has the flair, but Stephen Jones knows how to run the game better. Keeps a cool head more than Hook does. Can see them being alternated as they were back in 2008. Bigger needs more time to develop as a player, also needs to figure out how to keep a cool head. Much prefer Mathew Morgan as a fly-half for the future.

3. I disagree, Martyn Williams had a good season with the Blues, just has that little bit of a class that we need imo.

4. McCusker is a 6 and Turnbull is a 7 imo, so preferably I hope both are there

5. I'd say a fully fit Welsh front row is up there with some of the best scrums around, hence the fact they were picked for the Lions.

Your squad looks prtty close, however Jonathan Thomas, Andy Powell, Andrew Bishop and Richie Rees have all been dropped from the squad. I'd go for this atm.

15. Lee Byrne 14. George North 13. Jon Davies/James Hook 12. Jamie Roberts 11. Shane Williams 10. Stephen Jones/James Hook 9. Mike Phillips/Tavis Knoyle
8. Toby Faletau (been fantastic all season!) 7. Warburton 6. Dan Lydiate 5. Alun Wyn-Jones 4. Bradley Davies 3. Adam Jones 2. Mathew Rees 1. Gethin Jenkins (why wouldnt you start him?)
16. Richard Hibbard 17. Paul James 18. Ryan Jones/Luke Charteris 19. Martyn Williams/Gareth Delve 20. Tavis Knoyle/Mike Phillips/Williams 21. James Hook/Stephen Jones/Gavin Henson 22. Leigh Halfpenny/Scott Williams

 

[Melhor Time]

^^ I think it's the first tme ever that I see someone picking Paul James over Gethin Jenkins. And I hope it's the last one.

Full fit Jenkins starts, for sure. However, he has been out injured for a long time and so picking him would be not really be ideal. Not just yet anyway.

Thingimubob

Ireland do have a cracking back 3, but better than New Zealand? Not quite. Not only are they fantastic players, but they have a ridiculous amount of them if any gets injured. You've got Muliaina, Hosea Gear, Rokococo, Sivivatu, Guildford and Jane to name but a few.

Loads of depth, loads and loads of it. But who are going to be the NZ wingers....Its hard to know. It won´t be Rokocoko or Sivivatu. Both are going to be in France after the RWC and at most one will be in the squad. I´d pick Jane at 14 and Gear at 11. But lets say Dagg and Guildford go... between them its 11 international caps. Bowe and co would be rated higher for me.

An 'aged' All Blacks too?

Yes, the forwards are going to average more than England did in 2003.

Believe it or not!

Psychic Duck

Scotland beat Argentina away twice in 2010, yes Scotland are dire in attack but Argentina are hardly that good either, how many times did they drop the ball against Ireland in November?

Argentina were dire in these matches and won´t play anything like this again. Scotland won, but scored how many tries.... 1 in two games! Failed to score in 2009 too when Argentina won in Scotland. Argentina have not had their first team together since 2007 and have not trained together for a lengthly period since the same time. Argentine players have been playing attacking rugby in Europe. They have failed to gel in quick time like in the 2010 internationals but given the talent I am very optimistic.

Look at the players in Europe. Camacho, Rodríguez, Agulla, Fernández, Bustos Moyano, Tiesi, Bosch, Scelzo, Ledesma, Albacete, Fernández Lobbe, Figuerola, Roncero, Ayerza, Figallo. All did well for their clubs - all played one or more or Heineken Cup Quarter Finals, Amlin Challenge Cup Final, Aviva Premiership Final and Top 14 Orange Semi Final.

Try to find a list of Scottish players like this. It is thin. The problem Argentina has has is having time together. They´ll be very different with the players all back and having actually prepared together.

that match in my opinion will come down to the referee's interpretation of the scrums

You could be right. Argentina will field 4 props - I´d go for Ayerza and Scelzo starting with Roncero and Figallo on the bench.

Remember, Argentina vs Scotland in 2008, 2009 and 2010 never had Los Pumas having their team together. Juan Martín Hernández missed all five matches! Scelzo missed three, etc.

if he gives the more dominant scrum (Argentina) penalties, they will win

or if he penalizes them constantly despite being dominant like Mark Lawrence did in the Ireland Argentina match, Scotland will win

Sure - Lawrence can´t referee scrums. He gave Ireland a penalty which should have been a penalty try to Argentina.

this match will be similar to the Italy Scotland match at the 2007 World Cup

I disagree. Argentina have far better attacking players than Italy did then and also than Argentina themselves had.

I don't understand your point about Morné Steyn, World Cup knockout matches often come down to penalties, a poor kicking display can often cost teams (Mortlock 2007), and Steyn is the best goal kicker in the world

For it to work the pack needs to be dominant. Steyn without the pack has no influence on a match.

Besides F Steyn will be the fullback and Pienaar thus the flyhalf. Both are international level goalkickers even if Morne Steyn is better. Or should Argentina have played Todeschini at teh last RWC and thus had Hernandez at fullback and Corleto out of the team.... Seriously, flyhalf is vital and you cannot bank on the boot.

and how many people slated the England squad in 2007 as being aged and wrong players and yet they got to the final because when teams decided not to take risks and tried to win a dogfight against them (Australia, France) they knew how to win

Wilkinson is smart. Can read a game well. Steyn is not in the same boat.

South Africa are the second best team in the world, but there is one error in selection which makes the pack not work as effectively and it is John Smit

Like Steyn, Smit would not make my side. Nor would Juan Smith.

that pack that bullied England in November plus a fit Heinrich Brüssow is capable of winning the World Cup, I'm sure of it

Without question - but NZ will not be cold conditions like Twickenham in late november. Its going to be spring rugby, like the Top 14 Final was. Conditions always influence.

 

[Draggs]

I have to disagree with picking George North to start over Leigh Halfpenny.
Halfpenny knows the position better, and has more accurate positioning and more dependable defence. I think many have forgotten how good Halfpenny is over the past year through his injuries. His boot is also valuable with Henson unlikely to be involved.

No way would I select either Jonathan Thomas or Andy Powell. They are both very poor forwards who are too much of a liability.

 

[Thingimubob]

I have to disagree with picking George North to start over Leigh Halfpenny.
Halfpenny knows the position better, and has more accurate positioning and more dependable defence. I think many have forgotten how good Halfpenny is over the past year through his injuries. His boot is also valuable with Henson unlikely to be involved.

No way would I select either Jonathan Thomas or Andy Powell. They are both very poor forwards who are too much of a liability.

Atm I'd pick him ahead of Halfpenny simply because Halfpenny is an injury doubt. Normally I'd have him just ahead of North. Out of interest, can anyone see North becoming a 13 in the future? A partnership between him and Roberts could potentially be devastating! Both with plently of size, and North with a hell of a turn of pace.

 

[dullonien]

When Adam Jones is fit, Wales have one of the best scrummaging packs going. France, Argentina, Italy and SA should probably be rated slightly higher due to the depth they have in the front row, but none of them will have a significant edge over a Wales front row consisting of Jenkins/James - Rees/Haibbard - Adam Jones. Our scrum has probably been one of the biggest positives in recent years. That might count for quite alot when facing Fiji, but we won't get much change out of Samoa with the likes of Census Johnson. If we make it through to the quarters, and face Aus, I'd expect the Aus scrum to concede plenty of penalties without Ben Alexander (have I got my information correct that he won't make the WC?)

Most people have written off Wales' chance of making the quarters. I completely understand why, considering our not so rosy history against Fiji and Samoa. However, I still think it's in our hands. If we play well, I completely expect us to come through those two games unscathed. We should have the measure of Fiji up front, especially with the added dynamism emerging in the back-row, and Warburton there to make sure a repeat of '07 doesn't happen again at ruck time. Pick a big midfield with Jones at 10, Roberts at 12 and Davies at 13 and win ugly, that's all that's really needed. I'm more weary of Samoa, because they have a better forward base. It's in this game that I'd select a more nimble backline and move their big forwards around.

We haven't been playing very well for a while though, so ultimately it all comes down to us. If we play poorly against Fiji or Samoa then we'll probably loose and fail to make it out of the group yet again. The up and coming summer internationals v England and Argentina are very important. Loose all three, and I can see the WC being a shambles, win 2 out of three and the confidence will start to return, and I'll be looking forward to the opening game against SA with some optimism.

 

[Darwin]

When Adam Jones is fit, Wales have one of the best scrummaging packs going. France, Argentina, Italy and SA should probably be rated slightly higher due to the depth they have in the front row, but none of them will have a significant edge over a Wales front row consisting of Jenkins/James - Rees/Haibbard - Adam Jones. Our scrum has probably been one of the biggest positives in recent years. That might count for quite alot when facing Fiji, but we won't get much change out of Samoa with the likes of Census Johnson. If we make it through to the quarters, and face Aus, I'd expect the Aus scrum to concede plenty of penalties without Ben Alexander (have I got my information correct that he won't make the WC?)

Most people have written off Wales' chance of making the quarters. I completely understand why, considering our not so rosy history against Fiji and Samoa. However, I still think it's in our hands. If we play well, I completely expect us to come through those two games unscathed. We should have the measure of Fiji up front, especially with the added dynamism emerging in the back-row, and Warburton there to make sure a repeat of '07 doesn't happen again at ruck time. Pick a big midfield with Jones at 10, Roberts at 12 and Davies at 13 and win ugly, that's all that's really needed. I'm more weary of Samoa, because they have a better forward base. It's in this game that I'd select a more nimble backline and move their big forwards around.

We haven't been playing very well for a while though, so ultimately it all comes down to us. If we play poorly against Fiji or Samoa then we'll probably loose and fail to make it out of the group yet again. The up and coming summer internationals v England and Argentina are very important. Loose all three, and I can see the WC being a shambles, win 2 out of three and the confidence will start to return, and I'll be looking forward to the opening game against SA with some optimism.

It is Benn Robinson (not Ben Alexander) who looks like he will miss the RWC with injury...

I can't speak for everyone else, but I have far from written Wales' chances of making the quarters (are beyond). I still think Wales deserve to second favourites in their pool, but they do have an unfortunate (for them) habit of losing to Pacific Island nations. For me it is really a case of all the other pools being largely predictable, and I wanted to predict a (slight) upset.... now it looks like picking Wales to win would be picking the upset!

 

[DJRonStar]

Pool D - This time last year I would have said South Africa and Wales to go through. I really do believe this will come down to points differential. South Africa don't look as strong as they did four years ago. Wales have a good squad and will be up for it against Samoa and Fiji. Samoa will be boosted with the home crowd like advantage and have probably there strongest squad ever in a world cup. Beating the Wallabies have boosted there confidence but have done them no favours with South Africa, Wales and Fiji ready to rumble. Fiji always unpredictable but they are missing some key players.

South Africa and Samoa to advance. I now would say Samoa are ranked second in Pool D. Samoa beating Wales will not be an upset. Wales beating South Africa will be. It will surely come down to points differential as I do believe South Africa, Wales and Samoa will all lose just the one game. Wales beating South Africa, Samoa beating Wales and South Africa beating Samoa.

 

[Draggs]

I honestly think that Wales' first-choice front row (Jenkins, Rees, Jones) is ahead of any other nations first front row. We have handled the various South African front rows over the past three years, as well as some of France's best scrummagers.

Hibbard is underrated by many; he has really improved over the past few seasons and is without a doubt our second-choice hooker. If only Ken Owens was fit this season, we wouldn't fear Huw Bennett. While Nugget hasn't had the best season, I have no doubt he would step up for the World Cup, and will be a valuable leader in what could be a rather inexperienced group of forwards. We need to bring three dedicated second rows in addition to using Ryan as emergency cover, which would mean Charteris goes to New Zealand. I'd give anything for 2008 Ian Evans back.

 

[Feicarsinn]

Pool Predicitons:

Pool A: 1. New Zealand, 2. France

Needless to say NZ and France will be the Quarter Finalists and in that order. Three easy wins for both teams against the other teams with Japan to be the next best as the national team continues to improve tremendously under Kirwan.

3. Japan - Qualify for England 2015.

4. Canada. 5. * Tonga.

* First team to open a RWC going through the tournament winless.

Pool B: 1. England, 2, Argentina

England will be pusehd to the limit in the opener but this is not going to be a comfortable win. England to hang on with Arg scoring a bonus point. So many people going for Scotland over Argentina. Interesting. They´ve finally had time together from June to present for the first decent period at all since 2007. The form of various players in different european teams and not the international team (Pumas) is the real guide for me. Argentina have far better players across the park than Scotland. Can´t see Scotland, the worst attacking team in rugby, winning. Scotland will have a tough first week with games vs both Romania and Georgia within five days. Georgia will compete in the forwards.

3. Scotland. Qualify for England 2015.

4. Georgia. 5. Romania

Pool C: Australia, Ireland

Australia have it lucky - no good challenger with a scrum. Italy will be a handful in the opener for them but Australia will power home in the final 20 minutes. Next up vs Ireland could go either way but it should be an Australian win. Thankfully the RWC 2003 disaster schsdule won´t occur again. Who will ever forget Australia scheduling Aus vs Irl on the same weekend as the AFL vs GAA game in Melbourne to cash in. It occured a week after Argentina vs Ireland with Los Pumas already haveing played all four pool games. Italy had a similar unfair one so that NZ vs Wales could be in Sydney. Again, financial motivation. John O´Neill is an expert money maker but a rugby and sports nobody.

The question about this pool is, of course, Italy. The Italian can make the Quarter Fina´s and will give Ireland a massive match last up. Its a shame that Italy have to back up from playing the USA only four days previously but they´ll have had rest time earlier unlike in 2003. Simply, if Ireland don´t play at the top of their game and Italy do then Italy will advance. The USA will be interesting to follow. No chances of the finals but are so much better now than in 2007.

3. Italy, Qualify for England 2015.

4. USA 5. Russia

Pool D: South Africa, Wales

South Africa lucky to have this group. They´ll be too much for Wales and Fiji up front and will love the Samoans,but as always, notch up a 50 point win. Wales are not going to go down this time. Its time to get it right. No loss to either Fiji or Samoa. Time to play smart and not try to score from inside the Welsh 22. Hook at 10 is the first thing to do. No places for the aged players like Martyn Williams. Samoa vs Fiji to be the biggest Pacific Island match either but neither side will make the play-offs and Samoa, in losing will officially be out of contention.

3. Fiji. Qualify for England 2015.

4. Samoa. 5. Namibia.

QF Predictions:

QF1 - Australia v Wales

Could be highly entertaining and should be. Australia´s shakey scrum again doing okay thanks to the opposition with Quade Cooper standing tall as the backs notch up a number of tries. Could be 80 points scored in this match.

QF2 - England v France - le crunch.

France to win this time. Trinh-Duc to totally shut down Flood and the French backrow to be on form. France to win this by 15 points. yes, a big win! England to enter it tired up fronta after defeating Scotland

QF3 - South Africa v Ireland

If RSA play with Morne Steyn and John Smit then Ireland will win. More attacking options and simply a far younger side. RSA need Pienaar at 10, Frans Steyn at 15 and du Plessis at hooker. Healip-Ferris-O´Brian would stand out as worldclass with BOD scoring the winning try in the final 10 minutes.

QF4 - New Zealand v Argentina

Depending on the Argentina strategy it could be a great game or a one sided one.If Los Pumas want to win then they cannot play like they did in 2010. What people seem to forget is Argentina are able to push NZ close when they have their best players avaliable. They drew in 1985 and lost at the death by small scores in 2001 and 2006. The back-three is young and all impressive in Europe. They need the ball! New Zealand to win by something like 25-20.

SF Predicitions:

Guys, the semi finals are to be QF 1 vs QF 2 winner and QF 3 vs QF 4 hence Australia vs New Zealand won´t happen if both win their pools.

SF1 - Australia v France

No repeat of november 2010. This time France will field the right team and get the game plan correct. Time to actually target Cooper and take him out of the game. The right back-three will be there and the frontrow will clearly dominate Australia. France wo win this by 5.

SF2 - New Zealand v Ireland

As said by someone earlier South Africa know how to win these matches but I can´t see a win here sorry. The team is aged and the wrong players are in the mix. NZ don´t lose games against sides kicking goal after goal. They lose when they aren´t allowed to play their own game. The key areas are the breakdown and the centres. The All Blacks are masters at breaking through the midfield, and doing so with many players and not only centres. They need to be shutdown here and South Africa lack the pace in the pack to do it.

But I think Ireland wil win the QF and as such face New Zealand in the Quarter Final. This will be spectacular. Ireland, much younger and with a better back three than New Zealand (if they go for Bowe -Earls- Fitzgerald) could rise up and make history. the issue ie inside centre. D´Arcy needs to left at the airport in Dublin. Make it 12 McFaddyn, 13 BOD. The Irish backrow can compete qwith the All Blacks and it should be even in the secondrow. The frontrow will be advantage NZ but Cian Healy is vastly better than Tony Woodcock. It will all go down to Carter and Williams who are the key. Ireland need to shut them down. McFaddyn tackling well with BOD there to tackle the player receiving the Williams off-load. I´m going to say it. NZ will choke vs Ireland in the semi final. The best every Irish side against an aged All Blacks side

Bronze Final:

Australia vs New Zealand: Neither side to give the occasion justice but hopefully NZ weill do the honorable thing and not cry over the loss like they have done so often.

Final:
Ireland v France

All European - worldwide excitement over this and the fact that it´ll be a new champion. BOD to suddenly be appologized to from the NZ media over the spear tackle from 2005 as France are called cheats and all sorts of the usual stuf that happens after the choke, John Key to pretend all is well. Quite an interesting scenario. Seriously, a plausible final and it would be an awesome game as it always is between these sides. France would win it thanks to the pack, Trinh-Duc and the young try scoring wingers. Dusautoir to lift the Williams Webb-Ellis Cup as BOD announces his international retirement to the media.

Winners: France

That'd be just fine with me.

 

[Darwin]

Melhor Time
Some interesting views (as usual)... I'm sure you would get very good odds if you were to pick an Ireland v France final!

Pool Predicitons:

Pool A: 1. New Zealand, 2. France

Needless to say NZ and France will be the Quarter Finalists and in that order. Three easy wins for both teams against the other teams with Japan to be the next best as the national team continues to improve tremendously under Kirwan.
3. Japan - Qualify for England 2015.
4. Canada. 5. * Tonga.

* First team to open a RWC going through the tournament winless.

I'm backing Tonga to beat both Japan and Canada, though in reality there probably is not much between those three teams.

Pool D: South Africa, Wales

South Africa lucky to have this group. They´ll be too much for Wales and Fiji up front and will love the Samoans,but as always, notch up a 50 point win. Wales are not going to go down this time. Its time to get it right. No loss to either Fiji or Samoa. Time to play smart and not try to score from inside the Welsh 22. Hook at 10 is the first thing to do. No places for the aged players like Martyn Williams. Samoa vs Fiji to be the biggest Pacific Island match either but neither side will make the play-offs and Samoa, in losing will officially be out of contention.

3. Fiji. Qualify for England 2015.

4. Samoa. 5. Namibia.

I would be completely shocked if South Africa puts 50 points on Samoa - I expect they will win, but Samoa should push them. I think you are really under-rating this Samoan team; they look very strong in my opinion. Likewise I expect Samoa will be too good for Fiji, as I don't think the Fijian team is looking overly strong.

QF4 - New Zealand v Argentina

Depending on the Argentina strategy it could be a great game or a one sided one.If Los Pumas want to win then they cannot play like they did in 2010. What people seem to forget is Argentina are able to push NZ close when they have their best players avaliable. They drew in 1985 and lost at the death by small scores in 2001 and 2006. The back-three is young and all impressive in Europe. They need the ball! New Zealand to win by something like 25-20.

If you mean New Zealand to win by between 20-25 points I agree While Argentina may have been able to push the All Blacks in Argentina in 2001 and again in 2006 (when NZ sent over an understrength team) I think facing the AB's in NZ is another thing altogether. In the 7 matches the two teams have played in NZ the All Blacks smallest winning margin has been 31 points.... However this is a RWC, so an AB loss certainly isn't off the cards!

SF2 - New Zealand v Ireland

But I think Ireland wil win the QF and as such face New Zealand in the Quarter Final. This will be spectacular. Ireland, much younger and with a better back three than New Zealand (if they go for Bowe -Earls- Fitzgerald) could rise up and make history. the issue ie inside centre. D´Arcy needs to left at the airport in Dublin. Make it 12 McFaddyn, 13 BOD. The Irish backrow can compete qwith the All Blacks and it should be even in the secondrow. The frontrow will be advantage NZ but Cian Healy is vastly better than Tony Woodcock. It will all go down to Carter and Williams who are the key. Ireland need to shut them down. McFaddyn tackling well with BOD there to tackle the player receiving the Williams off-load. I´m going to say it. NZ will choke vs Ireland in the semi final. The best every Irish side against an aged All Blacks side

Ireland has better back three than the AB's? Sure they have some talented young players, but I'd back any back-three combination the AB's pick to at least match (or likely better) Ireland's back three. It would certainly be a great win for Ireland if they could pull it off - first ever win over the AB's, and making it to thier first RWC final!