Rugby World Cup 2019 Qualifying & Repechage Tournament

[Brigantine]

It seems the last piece of the RWC qualifying puzzle has finally come together - that last piece was the "2017 Oceania Rugby Cup Winner", and the countries that will be contesting that ***le have just recently been announced.

There will be only 2 teams, and only 1 match: Cook Islands vs Tahiti. In Rarotonga in August. Everyone else has pulled out.

Elsewhere, 5 more countries were eliminated this weekend - Brazil, Paraguay, Sri Lanka, Malta and Bosnia.

There will be 23 countries left by the time the Repechage Tournament starts (19 qualified for the RWC, 4 for the Repechage Tournament). Looking at who those 23 might be, here things stand now:

• 17 countries guaranteed spaces from the start (the 12 automatic qualifiers, the Pacific 3, USA, Canada)
• 2 further spaces in Europe, with 8 countries still alive (5 in the REC, Portugal, Czechia, Hungary)
• 2 further spaces in Africa, with 10 countries still alive (6 in the Gold Cup, 4 in the Silver Cup)
• 1 further space in the Americas, with only Uruguay and Chile left
• 1 final space between Asia and Oceania, with 5 countries remaining (Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Cook Islands, Tahiti)

• 48 countries eliminated

I made some predictions in another thread based solely on WR rankings. Those rankings are useful but have their limitations - is there any country you rate better than what their WR ranking is?

 

[Aussie_Rugger]

is there any country you rate better than what their WR ranking is?

I might be crazy, but I could see Hong Kong beating: Germany, Kenya and Portugal. That would put them at 23rd, behind Canada.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

From your predictions in the other thread Brigantine I'd put Canada ahead of Uruguay when Canada have their European based players available. Canada's ranking is hugely deflated by not having access to their top players in the Americas Championship. When they were at full strength in November they scored three tries in Ireland I think. So I think they will avoid the repechage.

Kenya are a wildcard for me as I know nothing about them at XVs. We will learn a lot when they host Germany this weekend.

I'm not sure about Hong Kong. Russia made them look very limited physically up front in November. I'm not sure they can compete with the likes of Spain and Uruguay in the repechage assuming they get past Korea. I'd marginally favour Korea I think given their victory in Chile last year.

My pick is Spain to emerge from the repechage.

 

[Aussie_Rugger]

I'm not sure about Hong Kong. Russia made them look very limited physically up front in November. I'm not sure they can compete with the likes of Spain and Uruguay in the repechage assuming they get past Korea. I'd marginally favour Korea I think given their victory in Chile last year.

What was that again?

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Yeah, yeah.

Fair point. Very disappointing if that is s full strength Korea but apparently it wasn't a RWC qualifier but only a battle for second and third in the tournament? If that was a qualifier and a full strength Korea then hats off to Hong Kong.

 

[Welshdragon2000]

I believe that the World Cup qualifying is next year for Asia.
Great result for Hong Kong though and some of the tries in that game were actually very good. I don't know if Korea were full strength or not but I don't know why you'd play a weakened side.
For the qualifying next year though it will be between Korea, Hong Kong and Malaysia. I can't see any of those sides qualifying for the RWC but there's an outside chance.

 

[Aussie_Rugger]

I believe that the World Cup qualifying is next year for Asia.
Great result for Hong Kong though and some of the tries in that game were actually very good. I don't know if Korea were full strength or not but I don't know why you'd play a weakened side.
For the qualifying next year though it will be between Korea, Hong Kong and Malaysia. I can't see any of those sides qualifying for the RWC but there's an outside chance.

Correct, the 2018 Asia Rugby Championship. Hong Kong, Malaysia and Korea will compete. They will then play the 2017 Oceania Rugby Cup winner (Oceania 4), with the winner on aggregate advancing to the world repechage.

 

[Brigantine]

Yeah that comeback in the 2nd test in the Chile vs Korea series last November was very unusual. Korea got thrashed in the first test, but that wasn't so surprising and no one remembers it.

WR rankings still don't line up too well for comparing non-RWC countries in different continents. Until very recently there haven't been enough tests for ranking points to flow across oceans, and with the massive gap between Japan and Hong Kong/Korea, no points flow that way either. Ultimately I think Hong Kong and Korea are both overrated in the rankings by at least 3 points.

As Bruce mentions with Canada, they drop a lot of ranking points in the ARC due to player availability. Maybe about 4 points - the flip-side of that is that's 4 extra points the USA, Uruguay and Brazil have that they haven't really earned. (Uruguay ~1.5, Brazil ~1.4, USA ~0.3, Chile ~0.4, Paraguay ~0.4)

If you adjust for those, you get:
16: Romania 70.15
17: USA 66.49
18: Canada 63.63
19: Spain 63.05
20: Namibia 62.78
21: Russia 62.40
22: Uruguay 59.98
23: Germany 59.78
24: Portugal 58.48
25: Kenya 57.89
26: Belgium 56.94
27: Hong Kong 55.30
28: Chile 54.36
29: Switzerland 53.63
30: Czech Republic 53.19
31: Netherlands 53.19
32: Poland 52.39
33: Brazil 51.88
34: Korea 50.70
35: Moldova 50.29
36: Zimbabwe 49.99

In bold: Countries in pole position for the Repechage Tournament
In italics: Countries eliminated from RWC qualifying.

If those 4 teams are in the Repechage Tournament, I'd only give Hong Kong about a 2% chance.
But if Germany finds something up their sleeve in February, or if Portugal win the play-off, then suddenly Hong Kong has a realistic chance to come through the middle as the other 3 teams destroy each other.

Of course, it could go the other way too. We could end up with Romania or Samoa in the Repechage Tournament, and it becomes a foregone conclusion.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Uruguay eliminated Chile this weekend I believe to be the only remaining South American possibility (other than Argentina).

 

[Brigantine]

Uruguay eliminated Chile this weekend I believe to be the only remaining South American possibility (other than Argentina).

Yes! Uruguay are the first country to earn qualification to the final 23. (as opposed to having a guaranteed spot)

Also Hungary eliminated by Czechia. No surprises there.

So it's now:

• 17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC
• 18 - Uruguay earned the spot for the Americas - Not just South America, it was also the spot for the Caribbean countries and Mexico, before they were eliminated by Colombia
• 29 - 11 more countries from Europe (5) and Africa (6) are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the Repechage Tournament as Plan B
• 40 - 11 further countries are able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament, with no other path to the RWC. (Portugal, Czechia, 4 countries in the Africa Silver Cup, 3 in Asia, Cook Islands, Tahiti)

• 50 countries eliminated

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Not relevant to RWC but another heavy loss for Korea against Hong Kong. Happy to say I've overestimated Korea following their comeback in Chile in November. Looks like their is no real avenue to professionalism for their players either. Hopefully long term they get a team in the Japanese Top League.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Notable that Nambia were just spanked by Russia at the weekend (something like 30-10). Russia are the fourth most likely side to grab the sole European qualifying spot and Nambia are favourites for the African spot (and therefore far, far more likely to qualify).

Europe really does get done over by the qualification process and I say that as someone who favours guaranteed minimum representation from each continent.

If Russia can somehow maintain that level of play in their winter in February then European qualification may not be an absolute certainty for Romania. But you'd have to be brave or foolish to pick against Romania.

I hope Kenya can raise their standard to compete strongly with Namibia and prevent the Africa1 qualification spot being a coronation for a rather ordinary side.

 

[Brigantine]

Yeah, the repechage qualifier has to be favourites for 4th in Pool B, over Africa 1.

Hopefully they'll give Italy a run for their money too.

If somehow Italy fails to get direct qualification to RWC 2023 (very unlikely), do you think World Rugby will allow the 6 Nations to be part of qualifying despite their issues with it being exclusive? Or might they force Italy to choose between the 2021-22 seasons of 6 Nations, and RWC 2023 qualifying via the ERC?

Or potentially a compromise with Emerging Italy going into the Trophy, and the main Italy side taking over for the repechage play-offs. (with the 6 Nations continuing normally)

I can see Tonga or Samoa being very tempted to lose the repechage play-off vs Europe 2, to massively improve their chances of automatic qualification for 2023. Find some excuse to hold back their top players or something...

 

[Goodey]

The only consistent thing about world cup qualifying is they make it up every time.

If a 6N side needs to qualify they will give them a single playoff to qualify, which they will still be able to qualify somehow if they lose.

 

[Welshdragon2000]

I thought the six nations sides had automatic qualification regardless of ow they do in the previous World Cup? I may be wrong... I'm probably wrong

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I thought the six nations sides had automatic qualification regardless of ow they do in the previous World Cup? I may be wrong... I'm probably wrong

It is the top 3 in each RWC group that automatically qualify. It would give World Rugby major headaches if a 6N or 4N side failed to finish in the top 3 of their RWC group. It has never happened before.

 

[Welshdragon2000]

It is the top 3 in each RWC group that automatically qualify. It would give World Rugby major headaches if a 6N or 4N side failed to finish in the top 3 of their RWC group. It has never happened before.

Thanks for clearing that up. I'd love to see Spain against Italy in the World Cup, just imagine if Spain won and caused Italy to finish 4th in their group.

 

[Goodey]

Ireland had to qualify for the 2003 world cup when there were only 8 automatic qualifiers. They set up a system where after previous rounds of qualifying they just had to win two games, agianst Russia and Georgia. It's been a completely different system every time and would be again to give other sides a chance but ultimately ensure most of the 20 qualified teams will qualify again.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Ireland had to qualify for the 2003 world cup when there were only 8 automatic qualifiers. They set up a system where after previous rounds of qualifying they just had to win two games, agianst Russia and Georgia. It's been a completely different system every time and would be again to give other sides a chance but ultimately ensure most of the 20 qualified teams will qualify again.

I stand corrected, thanks Goodey.

And yes, a European side emerging through the repechage and facing Italy would be hilarious. The mighty Italy would of course win.

 

[Brigantine]

Pool C could be all but set in concrete this Saturday.

Whoever wins USA vs Canada will be Americas 1, and whoever wins Tonga vs Samoa will *probably* be Oceania 2, especially if it's Samoa. Those two teams will join England, France and Argentina.
The loser of Tonga vs Samoa will *probably* qualify as the play-off winner in Pool A with Ireland, Scotland, and Japan.

Also this weekend: The Africa Gold Cup continues (top 4/6 teams avoid elimination) and the Africa Silver Cup starts (the winner has a path to the Repechage Tournament)