- Joined
- Dec 3, 2012
- Messages
- 2,979
- Country Flag
- Club or Nation
Yeah, I'm probably just imagining it. I'm half asleep, still in bed posting these things. I might just be having nightmares about the boks again
-
Help Support The Rugby Forum :
Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions
- Thread starter Dropkick1
- Start date
- Joined
- Oct 3, 2011
- Messages
- 4,682
- Country Flag
- Club or Nation
Anything's possible... and the Boks winning a Rugby World Cup is a lot more probable than a great deal of things in this world, so your nightmares could well be right. I just wasn't 'particularly' impressed with them in any of their games last year apart from the two games against the All Blacks. Those two games were brilliant from a spectator standpoint and from the fact that they beat and then subsequently pushed the best side in the world but there were still some glaring weaknesses.
I know the Boks game against Wales during the autumn was their last match of a long season but no one was telling us Welsh that before the match. All we heard was that our then 'decent' run hadn't had any 'decent' opposition and that this Springbok team would finally give us the test we needed to prove our aspirations were not built on sand. Then we beat them more than handily... and it was merely a tired bok team who were desperate for the close season... and that test will surely and finally come in the 6 Nations the following spring (& it did to be fair, the game against England was a proper test for both teams) but our one dimensional rugby just done enough.
No doubt they (the Boks... and everyone else) will be better at the RWC though, then we'll get that lesson we and our ball-retaining game so dearly deserved.
- Joined
- Dec 3, 2012
- Messages
- 2,979
- Country Flag
- Club or Nation
Last time I posted my world cup predictions I had wales as second favourite, and there has been no internationals since then yet i seem to have changed my mind. Or have i? All i did was post my most likely scenario out of all the possibilities. And id probably put a less than 10% chance of it playing out that way. Maybe after going through all the scenarios and assigning probabilities wales would still come out second, or even first. I would guess the all blacks would beat wales, and the springboks would beat them, but no other team.
Yes I think wales is one dimensional, but I'm not blind to the fact it's working. Full kudos deserved. My favourite thi g about rugby is that different styles can be competitive agaunst each other.
Yes I think wales is one dimensional, but I'm not blind to the fact it's working. Full kudos deserved. My favourite thi g about rugby is that different styles can be competitive agaunst each other.
- Joined
- Oct 3, 2011
- Messages
- 4,682
- Country Flag
- Club or Nation
You sleep tight now, and don't let those bed-Boks bite.
sCriv
Academy Player
- Joined
- May 7, 2019
- Messages
- 73
- Country Flag
- Club or Nation
Toughest WC to predict in years.
France and Scotland both decent on their day but no consistency, so I'd count them out - although they both seem to step up at world cups for some reason.
Both seem to be very error-prone in recent years as well, especially evident in the 6N. Second half they seem to drop off and hit the panic stations.
Argentina could be dark horses. Fancy them to qualify from their pool and from then on you never know on the fast Japanese pitches.
Decent squad that could cause an upset somewhere along the line if they aren't respected, however I don't think they are in that top bracket either.
Wales in superb form and certainly have a chance if they can carry the momentum from their grand slam win.
However they seem to only ever hit their top gear when they play in Cardiff, so that's the big question mark.
Australia even without Folau have a very strong pack - definitely in with a shout.
For me though the favourites are clearly NZ, SA, Ireland and England.
NZ aren't the beast they were in 2015 and 2011, but they are still formidable and should definitely be considered favourites.
SA/Ireland/England all got a great chance for me.
Who will win it?
Not a clue. It's wide open.
France and Scotland both decent on their day but no consistency, so I'd count them out - although they both seem to step up at world cups for some reason.
Both seem to be very error-prone in recent years as well, especially evident in the 6N. Second half they seem to drop off and hit the panic stations.
Argentina could be dark horses. Fancy them to qualify from their pool and from then on you never know on the fast Japanese pitches.
Decent squad that could cause an upset somewhere along the line if they aren't respected, however I don't think they are in that top bracket either.
Wales in superb form and certainly have a chance if they can carry the momentum from their grand slam win.
However they seem to only ever hit their top gear when they play in Cardiff, so that's the big question mark.
Australia even without Folau have a very strong pack - definitely in with a shout.
For me though the favourites are clearly NZ, SA, Ireland and England.
NZ aren't the beast they were in 2015 and 2011, but they are still formidable and should definitely be considered favourites.
SA/Ireland/England all got a great chance for me.
Who will win it?
Not a clue. It's wide open.
- Joined
- Nov 2, 2006
- Messages
- 6,142
- Country Flag
I think there's some truth in the one-dimensional bit, but it's not through ball retention (that's more Ireland's gig). Our defense is what's doing it, and sometimes that results in us winning games despite having less than 40% possession! There is serious attacking potential in our ranks as well though, we just aren't seeing it consistently enough. I think this will be the most important factor, if we can up our attacking game by 10%, giving the likes of Tipuric, Sanjay, North and JD2 space to operate then we may actually have a shot of lifting the trophy (not forgetting Gareth Davies, Anscombe and Adams who are all offensive orientated players). If we continue to rely on defense then I can see us coming a cropper in one of the knockout games (and potentially vs Aus in the pool stages).
If we have to face NZ at any stage that'll be a huge ask as well. I don't think NZ are anywhere near their previous, almost unbeatable, best; but Wales haven't beaten them for more than 60 years! I suppose it's gotta happen sometime, but in a WC knockout/final, that feels too much to ask.
Overall I think it'll be one of NZ, SA, Eng, Ire or Wal; with the easy money being on NZ (who may yet up it during the WC and become untouchable).
- Joined
- Dec 3, 2012
- Messages
- 2,979
- Country Flag
- Club or Nation
Fair call, deffo the defence, I was meaning more as a means of getting points you rely on ball retention. Best defence in the world for sure. Most critics misunderstand the kicking game too, accusing your halfbacks of failing in their kicks because they are incontestable. In reality they are kicking it a bit deeper so they have a solid defensive line, can't be beaten one on one. Gives more territory too. It's exactly how the highlanders a few years ago and often the all blacks, who tend to kick more than anyone, operate.
For sure if you can improve your attack you'll be more of a chance. It might just mean adapting to what is and isn't working.
It's anyone's game this cup. Well, not anyone's.
- Joined
- Apr 9, 2010
- Messages
- 11,758
- Country Flag
- Club or Nation
Well I don't know what to read into it if we look at what's happening in the Super Rugby currently, but there are some signs that the NZ teams have frailties in certain positions, and there are things to exploit, and whether this will be carried through to the All Blacks remains to be seen. But I think NZ have a problem at the props and at lock. Other teams have been able to turnover set phase ball from the NZ teams easier than before, and some NZ teams have also stuggled with the Scrums.
But with that said, my fear is that the SA teams are performing remarkably well, and I fear that this might not be carried over to the Springboks...
But with that said, my fear is that the SA teams are performing remarkably well, and I fear that this might not be carried over to the Springboks...
spartan32
Bench Player
- Joined
- Feb 28, 2015
- Messages
- 528
Some interesting predictions. I think this WC is wide open with many potential winners. Much less clean cut than previous years. I think it will all come down to who can hold their top form. Can't be bothered to break down all the various bits but for me the NZ, England, SA, Wales and Ireland are in with a chance of winning.
NZ as always are the team to beat. Not sure there's much doubt there
England have the players and the potential. We've seen snippets here and there of what they can do and if they can string those kind of performances together they are in with a good chance, but I think that's an awful big if. Also a likely early meet with NZ isn't great, but if they can knock them out it will be a huge psychological boost that could carry them home.
SA are a bit more of an outside bet, but they showed some great rugby against England when they were on tour and they are hard as nails. Always pose a threat and have some great players.
Wales are coming off of a 6 nations high and have shown they can perform under pressure. Arguably coming into their peek and this could be their best chance of taking their first World Cup honours. That could be a real motivator. But they aren't great away from home, and Japan is a long way from home.
Ireland have gone off the boil but they have recently turned over NZ and all the NH have experienced their dominant rugby in recent years. If they can rediscover their form they can be a threat to any team.
If pushed I suspect that no one has what it takes to topple NZ. Them to win, which sadly means England knocked out early....
NZ as always are the team to beat. Not sure there's much doubt there
England have the players and the potential. We've seen snippets here and there of what they can do and if they can string those kind of performances together they are in with a good chance, but I think that's an awful big if. Also a likely early meet with NZ isn't great, but if they can knock them out it will be a huge psychological boost that could carry them home.
SA are a bit more of an outside bet, but they showed some great rugby against England when they were on tour and they are hard as nails. Always pose a threat and have some great players.
Wales are coming off of a 6 nations high and have shown they can perform under pressure. Arguably coming into their peek and this could be their best chance of taking their first World Cup honours. That could be a real motivator. But they aren't great away from home, and Japan is a long way from home.
Ireland have gone off the boil but they have recently turned over NZ and all the NH have experienced their dominant rugby in recent years. If they can rediscover their form they can be a threat to any team.
If pushed I suspect that no one has what it takes to topple NZ. Them to win, which sadly means England knocked out early....
- Joined
- Dec 3, 2012
- Messages
- 2,979
- Country Flag
- Club or Nation
Super rugby form doesn't usually count for a lot. In 1998 nz had 3 teams in the semis and maybe a fourth team just missed the cut. That was the all blacks worst year in history (based on results against two great teams so it was hardly that bad, but still).
The nz teams are seriously lacking in coaching quality at the moment, and now everyone has caught up and is playing the offloading game we started a few years back. I also think we don't have huge depth but if we don't have many injuries we'll still be competitive.
Tyrel Lomax and Owen franks have been quality tight heads. Hopefully we don't need more. Karl played poorly in his last one or two games but I'm wondering if he was nursing an injury or sickness. Joe moody is solid. The crusaders have been defeated by smart scrum tactics by the sa teams, but the all blacks will likely analyse the heck out of that.
At lock we have Whitelock, retallick, and Barrett. We just don't want any injuries because there is a big gap before the next best.
I think the Boks are just as fragile tbh. Both the all blacks and Boks are vulnerable to injuries to key players. Boks with no faf, or vermeulen, Le roux. All blacks with no smith or Ardie (and they'll probably not even pick him). Etc.
- Joined
- Apr 9, 2010
- Messages
- 11,758
- Country Flag
- Club or Nation
This is true. But guys like To'ungafasi (hope my spelling is correct) who made a big impact last year, are nowhere this year. And the stocks are depleting. For the Boks there are a few youngsters that are putting their hands up and a guy like Herschel Jantjes at scrumhalf has been showing his class.
Ultimately the shortened RC will give us an indication ahead of the World Cup if there was indeed a difference between SR and international rugby with some (most) of the players.
- Joined
- Jun 14, 2016
- Messages
- 5,115
- Club or Nation
What are the grounds going to be like? And weather? That plays a big part in predictions.
I just hope England can sort out our issues as we are a very good side. And have a pretty settled team meaning we know 90% of who will be our in our first choice 23.
I just hope England can sort out our issues as we are a very good side. And have a pretty settled team meaning we know 90% of who will be our in our first choice 23.
- Joined
- Oct 3, 2011
- Messages
- 4,682
- Country Flag
- Club or Nation
JohnKA
Bench Player
- Joined
- Nov 10, 2014
- Messages
- 674
- Country Flag
- Club or Nation
If the Super Rugby is anything to go by I think Argentina is going to have a big World Cup , I really hope we get a Crusader vs Jaguars final in Super Rugby this year !
I think all of these teams can win the world cup :
All Blacks
Ireland
England
Argentina
South Africa
Australia
Going out on a limp here and give the Argies 40% chance of winning the World Cup based on super rugby form .
I think all of these teams can win the world cup :
All Blacks
Ireland
England
Argentina
South Africa
Australia
Going out on a limp here and give the Argies 40% chance of winning the World Cup based on super rugby form .
- Joined
- Oct 3, 2011
- Messages
- 4,682
- Country Flag
- Club or Nation
If this thread is anything to go by, Super Rugby form during a World Cup year doesn't seem to indicate much (apart from failure).
Still, the Argies always turn up at World Cups so you could be right.
- Joined
- Feb 28, 2012
- Messages
- 1,813
- Country Flag
- Club or Nation
There's a key difference between other teams in Super Rugby and their national teams vs the Jaguares team. All other national teams are made up of players from 4/5 Super Rugby teams and some international players. 80/90% of the Argentina team is the Jaguares, with the remainder being players in the NH. This should give more of an indication of the team's performance than others.
- Joined
- Oct 3, 2011
- Messages
- 4,682
- Country Flag
- Club or Nation
Indicative of the Argie team yes... not of the teams they're playing against. They'll be playing against teams with the cream of the crop of players amongst numerous teams not just one. Now this is mitigated somewhat for the Argies by the fact that as they are altogether all year around so they 'should' be super comfortable and organised as a unit but still... the All Blacks 'should' be stronger than any one of their Super Rugby teams and that in all likelihood applies to all the other Tier 1 nations who are also selecting from more than one team.
So all of a sudden the same level of Argie/Jaguares performance may not cut it against stronger oppo.
So all of a sudden the same level of Argie/Jaguares performance may not cut it against stronger oppo.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Dec 3, 2012
- Messages
- 2,979
- Country Flag
- Club or Nation
Cool video... but yeah I'm not sleeping tonight.
I absolutely agree that faf is their most important player.
- Joined
- Dec 3, 2010
- Messages
- 20,903
- Country Flag
- Club or Nation
Lol, talk about being dismissive of the two best European sides in this world cycle and championing the Welsh in the same sentence. Your man is a great researcher and obviously works massively hard on these, he can identify a formation and seems to be funny to a lot of people but he really is a hack when it comes to analysis.
