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Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions

Well I think I did some predictions about a year ago but because we're a lot closer to the RWC I'm going to have a more informed guess as to how it may pan out.
Pool A
1. Ireland
2. Scotland
3. Samoa
4. Japan
5. Russia
Interesting group this one. I could definitely see a couple of upsets here. I think Scotland will lose to Samoa but the Samoans will lose to Japan allowing Scotland to sneak through. Ireland should win the pool but will need to be switched on in the opener v Scotland. Placing Japan 4th is risky, they could qualify if they perform.

Pool B
1. South Africa
2. New Zealand
3. Italy
4. Canada
5. Namibia
Well NZ and SA will easily qualify from this group. Italy haven't made sufficient progress to trouble either of them. I've just got this feeling that the Boks could beat NZ in the opening game, it wouldn't surprise me. SA can beat NZ in a one-off scenario.

Pool C
1. England
2. Argentina
3. France
4. Tonga
5. United States
Now I can't wait for the top 3 teams to go at each other in this group!. I think England should win this group, if anything due to greater depth than France and Argentina. I definitely think Argentina will get 2nd ahead of France. The core of the Pumas team in the World Cup got to a super rugby final so that can only help them in this tournament. Argentina v England could be an absolute thriller. As for France I think they're in complete disarray. They were dire in the 6 nations and I can't see them improving in the World Cup. It wouldn't even shock me if France lost to Tonga or the USA.

Pool D
1. Wales
2. Australia
3. Fiji
4. Georgia
5. Uruguay
Wales's current form will I think enable them to beat Australia and secure top spot in the group. I think the Wallabies are in a scrap to get out of this group, particularly with Fiji massively improved. However, Australia should still have enough to come 2nd. Fiji could definitely get through though.

Quarter Final Predictions:
Ireland v New Zealand - NZ
South Africa v Scotland - SA
England v Australia - England
Wales v Argentina - Argentina

Semis (I think this is the Draw)
New Zealand v England - New Zealand
South Africa v Argentina - SA

Final -
New Zealand v South Africa - South Africa to repeat what they did in 1995 and win the final by a narrow margin.

I think they'll be a few surprises in store at this tournament. No doubt I'll get this all wrong. I think the ABs may just fall short of the three peat.
 
England- Wales
South Africa -Scotland
Australia- Argentina
Ireland New Zealand

England -Scotland
Australia - Ireland

England - Australia
 
Don't think SA will beat NZ. NZ will be going all out to avoid Ireland IMO. I'm unsure about SA. They've proved nothing yet.

I can see Japan beating Scotland. Scotland play a fast type of game which will suit Japan and it will be in Japan so they'll be used to the conditions.

If you're looking for a team to spring a surprise then Fiji look like that kind of team. They're big, fast, can score from anywhere and are more disciplined these days. The hard ground will suit them also.

I think England will be hard to beat and they could go all the way and win it.

France could do anything. They've the talent to go far but are usually a mess. Maybe more time together will help the team gel.

Australia will be tough to beat as usual. I think they'll win their group.

Ireland are coming into it on a downer with not much hype around them. That's a good place to be. Still, its Ireland so I'm going to expect a 1/4 final loss and anything else is a bonus.

Argentina and Wales will both be hard to beat. I think the hard grounds will suit Argentina's style while wales' defensive game is more suited to the European winter.

I hope there will be some shock results but don't think there will be besides Fiji. Maybe Italy can catch SA out but its unlikely. Scotland or Japan beating Ireland is possible.
 
Argentina are very cohesive at the moment and may well get some momentum going. France always seem to turn up at the World Cup and could go well. I think England may well have a tough job getting out of that pool.
 
tewdric said:
Argentina are very cohesive at the moment and may well get some momentum going. France always seem to turn up at the World Cup and could go well. I think England may well have a tough job getting out of that pool.
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I personally think France will crash and burn leaving England and Arg to fight it out for the top spot... it's gonna be a great game between those two, cant wait.
 
Oh and been pleasing to read we've slipped back under the radar again these last few posts... it was most disturbing having us causing so many 'blips' since the 6N ;).
 
bushytop said:
I personally think France will crash and burn leaving England and Arg to fight it out for the top spot... it's gonna be a great game between those two, cant wait.
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I wish I could dismiss France so easily, but history has shown you can never take them lightly in a World Cup.

Argentina are similarly dangerous, particularly off the high of the Jaguares' season. However, we have a good record against them and I'm hopeful of that continuing.

For England, the fixture sequence is good and bad. Good in the sense that we can build up to our tougher games and would hopefully be into our stride if we qualify for the QFs. On the other hand, bad, as we can't really afford to rest our main players. Bonus points against Tonga and USA are a must, so we can't risk putting out a second string side.
 
BPM said:
I wish I could dismiss France so easily, but history has shown you can never take them lightly in a World Cup.

Argentina are similarly dangerous, particularly off the high of the Jaguares' season. However, we have a good record against them and I'm hopeful of that continuing.

For England, the fixture sequence is good and bad. Good in the sense that we can build up to our tougher games and would hopefully be into our stride if we qualify for the QFs. On the other hand, bad, as we can't really afford to rest our main players. Bonus points against Tonga and USA are a must, so we can't risk putting out a second string side.
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I know France 'generally' turn up for World Cups but this French team just seem another level of amateur-hour to me... hope I'm wrong as I would love this faux group of death to live up to the much vaunted tag.
 
I don't entirely disagree. However, there's no denying they have some quality players and if they have a chance to deny us a QF place in the final group game, they'll be itching to take it. TBH, I'm hoping we already have 14 or 15 points by then to take the pressure down a touch.

To be fair, I think Wales' group isn't all that far off of being a 'group of death'. Fiji are definitely capable of causing an upset and sneaking in to the QF as runners-up. I'll be interested to see Cheika's unveiling of the new Australian attacking style in the Rugby Championship too.
 
BPM said:
To be fair, I think Wales' group isn't all that far off of being a 'group of death'. Fiji are definitely capable of causing an upset and sneaking in to the QF as runners-up. I'll be interested to see Cheika's unveiling of the new Australian attacking style in the Rugby Championship too.
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This is 'kinda' what I was low-key implying by referring to Pool C as faux etc. Pool D is a frikkin mine field!
 
Indeed. Uruguay won't cause anyone any difficulties, but Georgia are a problem - they're probably too good to risk playing a second string, but do you really want to risk your first XV in your opening game against a team that will relish beating the crap out of them? Very similar to England's opener against Tonga (although I think Georgia are better).
 
BPM said:
I wish I could dismiss France so easily, but history has shown you can never take them lightly in a World Cup.

Argentina are similarly dangerous, particularly off the high of the Jaguares' season. However, we have a good record against them and I'm hopeful of that continuing.

For England, the fixture sequence is good and bad. Good in the sense that we can build up to our tougher games and would hopefully be into our stride if we qualify for the QFs. On the other hand, bad, as we can't really afford to rest our main players. Bonus points against Tonga and USA are a must, so we can't risk putting out a second string side.
Click to expand...
I think we have the best possible run of fixtures.
First game, strong squad which should be BP win,

Second game 4 days later, we have good depth to still put out a strong squad with a strong bench of first 15 players.

3rd and 4th games are the hard ones with a 7 days inbetween each if them therefor we can have a full strengh squad



France could turn up but recent eveidence says they wont.

Argentina play usa 4 days after the england game, given a game between these 2 will be hugely physical what is their depth like ti take on a usa team thats had a week to recover from the france game.
 
BPM said:
Indeed. Uruguay won't cause anyone any difficulties, but Georgia are a problem - they're probably too good to risk playing a second string, but do you really want to risk your first XV in your opening game against a team that will relish beating the crap out of them? Very similar to England's opener against Tonga (although I think Georgia are better).
Click to expand...

Yeah, the fact World Cup squads are SO small really impacts that sort of decision making too. Personally think that we'll go pretty much full bore vs Georgia as we know they will be aiming to prove MANY points in that contest... but we will have a couple of less days recovery for the Oz game, so who knows.

Also, we have Fiji quite late in the group, giving them more 'prized' time together... it's definitely preferable to get them early. The Ozzie's fixtures definitely look 'nicer' to me but you gotta play the cards your dealt. Considering Wales are on a record breaking run of W's and recent GS champs I could definitely see the potential for the Ozzie's and Fiji to finish ahead of us.
 
ncurd said:
Completely baffled considering SA's current state how you have them winning the whole thing.

Could only win at home in the 2016 Rugby Championship

Barely beat Italy in the 2016 AI's with losses to England and Wales

They need one hell of turnaround before I can see past a QF loss to Ireland (except for Ireland sheer ability to choke at that stage of the tournament).
Click to expand...

apologies for quoting a very old post, but I wanted to see what I actually need to predict (which is on page one)

I think you are referring to SA form in 2017? (as this post was made in 2017) but if you have a look at their end of year tour in 2006 as well as their tri-nations leading up to the world cup (2007) it paints a completly different sorry.

The boks were absolutely terribly in the 2006 end of year tour, losing 3 out of 4 i think and they basically carried that same form over to the tri-nations the next year.

In the Tri-Nations I think they only managed to score 60 points in the entire tournament and scored intercept tries, which caused them to finish last on the log.

Yet they managed to grind it out in the world cup to win the thing, hey it was ugly but who cares right?

which is the reason i dislike them that much... cuz they always manage to pull something out of a hat or stay in a game when they shouldn't...

it like an "unorthodox" batsman hitting fours and sixes in a cricket match and your elegant batsman only getting dots, it make you go wtf

The boks always manage to pitch during these big occasions, so never write them off...

in fact they have been steadily improving of late which should be on a concern to the other teams
 
The Boks seem to be hitting some form in fairness. I really hope they have an emphatic victory against NZ at the weekend as it would bump Wales to the top of the world rankings and dump England to 5th! :)
 
Dropkick1 said:
Pool A
1st Ireland
2nd Japan
3rd Scotland
4th Tonga
5th Romania

Pool B
1st South Africa
2nd New Zealand
3rdItaly
4thNamibia
5thGermany

Pool c
1st England
2nd France
3rdArgentina
4Fiji
5th USA

Pool D
1stWales
2 Australia
3rdSamoa
4th Georgia
5th Canada

Quarter finals
South Africa vs Japan 47-19
England's vs Australia 35-23
Wales vs France 25-18
Ireland vs New Zealand 21-39

Semi final
South Africa vs England 25-21
Wales vs New Zealand 23-47

3rd Place playoff
Wales vs England 18-32

Final
South Africa vs new Zealand 28-22

South Africa to win

What's your guys predictions
Click to expand...
You can open a medium office you will make money
 
Brigantine said:
Now that the Six Nations is finished, there is little opportunity for these projections to change before the RWC.
Click to expand...
Now we're getting into that season. (changes are vs March 19)

New Zealand is still out in front, but the gap blow them is not what it used to be.
England is down to 5th in the rankings, but still 4th in expected RWC results.

Potential World Champions:

New Zealand - 44% -9 Chance (and for runner-up 24% NC)
Wales - 27% +2 Chance (runner-up 25% -4)
Ireland - 13% NC Chance (runner-up 15% -4)
England - 8.0% +2.0 Chance (runner-up 14% +3)
South Africa - 7.0% +4.5 Chance (runner-up 15% +5)
Australia - 0.8% NC Chance (runner-up 3.5% NC)
Scotland - 0.1% NC Chance (runner-up 1.4% +0.2)

And only a 0.1% +0.1 Chance for anyone else to win (Japan <0.1% +<0.1, France <0.1% NC), but a 1.8% +0.4 chance the runner-up will be France (1.0% +0.2), Japan (0.5% +0.3), Fiji (0.1% -0.1), or Argentina (0.1% NC).

Chance of making the Semis: (Wales now on top, Ireland now looking uncertain in QFs)

91.5% +0.5 - Wales
89% -5 - New Zealand
68% +3 - England
55% -9 - Ireland
49% +13 - South Africa
27% -3 - Australia
9.0% +1.0 - France
4.5% NC - Scotland
2.5% -1.5 - Fiji
2.2% +1.0 - Japan
2.0% NC - Argentina
0.5% - Other (Georgia 0.5% +0.1, USA <0.1%)

From January last year:
Brigantine said:
Here's what that looks like graphically. The sizes of areas within each box are approximately proportional to the relevant likelihoods.

View attachment 5615
Click to expand...

I can't quite be bothered making another picture, but I wanted to do a comparison. It's looking very different now. Fair to say I underestimated how much things could change in 18 months!

Quarterfinal 1: [New Zealand 77% / South Africa 23%] vs [Scotland 51% / Japan 40%] (no Ireland)
= [New Zealand 73% / South Africa 19%]

Quarterfinal 2: England vs [Australia 67% / Fiji 18%] (no Wales)
= [England 64% / Australia 21%]

Quarterfinal 3: Wales (no Australia) vs [France 56% / Argentina 27%]
= Wales (no Australia, Argentina, France)

Quarterfinal 4: [South Africa 76% / New Zealand 23%] vs Ireland (no Scotland)
= [Ireland 52% / South Africa 31% / New Zealand 15%] (no Scotland)

Semifinal 1: [New Zealand 73% / South Africa 19%] vs [England 64% / Australia 21%]
= [New Zealand 59% / South Africa 11% / England 21%]

Semifinal 2: Wales (no Australia, Argentina, France) vs [Ireland 52% / South Africa 31% / New Zealand 15%] (no Scotland)
= [Wales 50% / Ireland 26% / South Africa 11% / New Zealand 9%] (no Australia)

Final: [New Zealand 59% / South Africa 11% / England 21%] vs [Wales 50% / Ireland 26% / South Africa 11% / New Zealand 9%] (no Australia)
1st = [Ireland 12% / New Zealand 37%* / Wales 26% / New Zealand 7%*] (no England)
2nd = [Ireland 14% / New Zealand 22% / South Africa 7%* / Wales 24% / England 13% / South Africa* 8%] (no Australia)
*- separated by whether New Zealand or South Africa were first in Pool B / i.e. which semifinal they qualify via

Bronze Final: [England 43% / Australia 18% / New Zealand 15% / South Africa 8%] vs [South Africa 19% / New Zealand 6% / Ireland 26% / Wales 36%] (no Australia, Scotland)
3rd = [England 20% / New Zealand 15% / South Africa 13% / Ireland 17% / Wales 27%]
4th = [South Africa 15% / England 26% / Australia 17% / Ireland 10% / Wales 12%] (no Scotland, France, Argentina)
 
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