The table after that decision:
This week has Spain v Portugal and Romania v Georgia. Next week is Netherlands v Romania and Georgia v Spain.
Georgia: Already qualified for the world cup. Need only 1 point from two matches to guarantee Europe 1 (and so in a pool with Australia, Wales and Fiji)
Spain: Can comfirm Europe 2 and so qualify if they beat Portugal and Georgia beat Romania. If they win but Romania do too, they will end up in 3rd as Romania are bound to beat the Netherlands next week. If they lose then they'll either have to beat Georgia themselves or hope Romania fail to beat the Netherlands to salvage 3rd, otherwise they're out. If they draw with Portugal then all three teams could end up on 27 points, but Spain would be able to aim for a losing bonus point against Georgia (or just get within 15 points of them) to make sure they stay ahead of Portugal.
Portugal: Beat Spain and go likely through in 2nd, lose and they are out. If they win while Romania lose to Georgia, then they will get 2nd unless Spain beat Georgia, in which case it will come down to bonus points. If they draw, they have to hope either Spain get smashed by Georgia or Romania lose to Georgia by more than 7. One would salvage 3rd, both would get them 2nd.
Romania - Have to rely on 5 points from the Netherlands game being a non-negotiable. If so, they will safely get 3rd while the winner of Spain-Portugal takes 2nd place. If they beat Georgia this week first, then the Netherlands game will let them easily clinch 2nd place. If they fail to pick up a bonus point win against the Netherlands as well as collect nothing at home to Georgia then they can still go through, but have to hope Portugal win by more than 7 points in Spain.
