As I see it you have 3 groups:

 

Ireland, Wales and England are in the best positions at the moment and I can't pick between them.

Scotland and France form a second tier but could/would probably beat the above at home.

Italy will not lose by much but I can't see them winning more than one upset game.

 

Big buts flying around in any event (especially concerning France; wouldn't be surprised if they ended up tops but they do seem to be off the pace somewhat). A very open and exciting tournament lies ahead I think, even for a neutal.