Predictions for the 2014-15 season

[ratsapprentice]

That time of year again - well into pre-season and we are only a week or so away from the start of the best domestic competition in the world.
By this time you should have a reasonable grasp of how you think the season will play out, and this is where you can put those claims on record for later bragging.
Feel free to write a general preview of your team and of any others! You can also chuck in your "players to look out for" and league predictions too.

Here are some of mine:

In general I think this season will see a significant upping of competitiveness in the middle of the table. This season will be very, very difficult for the middle eight.

- Bath haven't really changed our squad very much, however the in's and out's are quite significant. Long time FB and fan favorite Nick Abendanon has moved on to pastures yellower, paving the way for Anthony Watson to make the position his own.
An apparently unfortunate series of events made Luke Arscott available and he is as good a player as we could have hoped for to bring in to replace Bendy - I foresee Anthony being first choice, but both players getting a fair crack at the whip, particularly if Watson gets more England involvement. Academy graduate Richard Lane will also cover FB as well as Wing. Tom Biggs is another player to have left and will be massively missed by fans and by the team off the field - by all accounts he's a ****ing great bloke! We have great resources on the wing however, and he wasn't used very much last season. Martin Roberts has left making way for Chris Cook to hopefully step up after a season on loan to LW culminating in their promotion. Many see this as somewhat of a make or break season for Chris even though he is only 23... hopefully he does himself justice. Tom Heathcote has also moved on and judging by the pre-season games that leaves Henson as our second choice FH.
The other big loss is Anthony Perenise who was in fantastic form last season, we've replaced him with Henry Thomas. Hopefully Thomas' scrummaging will start to match his open-field play soon, because we will need it to. I've never doubted that people with much more expertise than I rate him very highly, but I do worry about his scrummaging. There are some signs that this could be improving however. Ryan Caldwell has moved on to Exeter allowing for Academy lock Will Spencer to graduate into the senior squad. I am a big fan of Will - he is a ****ing big unit (124kg~) and likes to impose himself on games, I'm hoping he has a very big season - he was very important to LW's promotion last season IMO.
Argentinian hooker Eusabio Guinazu has made way for Tom Dunn to move into the senior squad from the academy. Tom is very highly rated by everyone involved with the club, and although I haven't seen all that much of him, I'm inclined to believe them. He looks like he could be very good. U20 JWC winner Tom Woolstencroft will be our 4th choice hooker. Nick Auterac and Grant Shiells come in to add depth to our LH behind Paul James. We've also brought in LH/Hooker Beno Obano who was released by the Wasps academy. Strangely there's been no official word on him whatsoever (absolutely zero) - although he's been training with us in pre-season. I am slightly confused by this situation. Sam Burgess - not much more to be said that hasn't already.... Big lad - SMASH.
This season we'll be looking to match what we did last season. This will be a very tough task IMO. Our main issue last year was that we didn't pick up bonus points in games that we really should have - that has to be our major "work-on". When we create try-scoring opportunities we have to take them. I have a feeling there will much be much fewer bonus points on offer this season however. We have one of the strongest teams in the competition, yet we are still learning how to use it. We need to come up with an answer to blitz defenses - we were pretty toothless when faced with them last season.

Bath players to look out for: Will Spencer, Tom Dunn and Dave Sisi.

- Harlequins still have the same issues they did last season. Their pack lacks bite across the board - they do have a couple of very physical players like Marler and Sinckler, but their locks are all a bit callow. This was really exposed in pre-season from what I've seen. Clearly then seem to do alright like this - but If they could up their physicality then I think they could really challenge this season - Matthews, Twomey and Merrick can hopefully do this. Clifford and Trayfoot could both have strong seasons with Mo Fa'asavalou gone. I think they are also going to want to find out whether Botica is a viable candidate to replace Nev when he moves on. I'm sure Grimoldby will be given some game-time this season, and I have an inkling he could be pretty good. Marland Yarde - good. Letting Molenaar go indicates they are banking on JTH being fit and in good form - let's hope he is and that he can actually cause defenses some trouble, otherwise I think they might find the going tough - as they did before they brought Molenaar in. Harry Sloan might also be used quite a bit depending on injuries/form.

Quins players to look out for: Louis Grimoldby, Kyle Sinckler, Joe Trayfoot, Sam Stuart, Jack Clifford and George Merrick.

- Wasps look stronger than they have for a while this season. And are one of the teams that will really add to the top 6 ****-fight. Alapati Leiua looks set to be one of the best signings this year - both in terms of sheer individual quality, and how much a player like him can benefit Wasps. The backline that they can put out this year is as threatening as you'll see anywhere and their pack is looking solid. I do think they will be very strong this year.

Wasps players to look out for: Alex Lozowski, Jonah Holmes and Alapati Leiua.

- London Welsh are a bit of an unknown quantity - I'd be inclined to say they've just got a load of sub-standard players, but frankly I don't know who most of their players are. They could just as likely be decent players.
Ultimately I think they will upset a couple of teams at home but that's about it - it's between them and Newcastle for the drop, and I think Newcastle have reqruited pretty damn well. I can't see any of the other teams underperforming to the extent that would allow both of those teams to escape the drop.


Other players to look out for:

Exeter: Dave Ewers, LCD
Gloucester: Matt Kvesic, Jacob Rowan, Matt Kvesic, John Afoa, Matt Kvesic, Richard Hibbard, Matt Kvesic, Elliott Stooke, Matt Kvesic, Ross Moriarty, Matt Kvesic, Steve McColl, Matt Kvesic, Dan Robson, Matt Kvesic, Billy Meakes, Matt Kvesic, Henry Purdy, Matt Kvesic and Matt Kvesic.
Leicester: Javiah Pohe, Michele Rizzo, Laurence Pearce, Aneseko Sio and Riccardo Brugnara.
London Irish: Guy Armitage, Halani Aulika and James Short.
London Welsh: err...
Newcastle: Alesana Tuilagi, Josh Furno, Kieran Brookes and Scott Wilson.
Northampton: Will Hooley, Cam Dolan and Teimana Harrison.
Sale: Nathan Hines, Alberto De Marchi, Chris Cussiter and Luke McLean.
Saracens: Maro Itoje, Matt Hankin, Ben Spencer, Nick Tompkins and Juan Figallo. (And Nathan Earle - if he plays)

League positions:

I don't feel confident enough this year to give a concrete prediction TBH.
Sarries, Northampton and Leicester will almost certainly be the top three - with Sarries likely to be league leaders.
Below that 4-6 could go to anyone... I think it will probably be between Bath, Quins, Gloucester and potentially Sale and Wasps too.
7th will be Wasps or Sale I think. Newcastle and London Welsh will battle to save themselves from bottom.

As I say... I'm not as confident in this prediction as I am usually because I think the middle of the table is going to be ridiculously tight, but here goes:

1. Saracens
2. Leicester
3. Northampton
4. Bath
5. Harlequins
6. Gloucester
7. Sale
8. Wasps
9. London Irish
10. Exeter
11. Newcastle
12. London Welsh

 

[TheSaffycen]

1.Tigers
2.Saracens
3.Saints
4.Bath
5.Glos
6.Quins
7.Wasps
12.London Welsh
This year I think that Leicester will win the league, their pack is just so immense this year and the backline has serious size. London Welsh haven't really captured the imagination with their signings, but they should have reliable goal kickers in Weepu and Ross. Newcastle have also added some good signings so they should be a horrible team too play up north.

 

[Patchey]

I think it'll be something like this:

1. Leicester (Final Winners)
2. Northampton
3. Sarries
4. Bath
5. Gloucester
6. Harlequins
7. Sale
8. Wasps
9. Exeter
10. London Irish
11. Newcastle
12. London Welsh

Thins are going to be very tight, I think the squads of the top 8-10 teams are the closest I've seen in a long time. For me, Tigers are looking ominous. They had a strong base to build on, have recruited well and will be very motivated after a disappointing season by their standards in 2013/14. Saints have broken their finals drought and have kept a double winning squad together with a few useful additions. Sarries on the other hand haven't had as consistent a pre-season as their rivals (didn't they send their players on a trip to America?) and I'm not convinced we'll see the same step up in style we saw between the 2012/13 and 2013/14 season. Also, the other top table clubs now have packs which should be able to match, if not better the 'Wolf Pack' (ugh) and we've seen that without dominance in the forwards Sarries look pretty average. Bath have recruited well and I'd back them to go one step further than last time, but I still have doubts over Mike Ford's ability to get the best out of what should be an very exciting squad.

From fifth through to ninth is far too close to call. Ask me next week and I'd probably rank those teams differently. Gloucester look to have got a much better back and a 10 who will actually turn up while I'd back my beloved Quins to push for the top four on style and execution in the backs alone although our forwards are going to get chewed up against the top four (see the Pre-Season thread). Sale and Wasps are similar looking squads IMO and if they defend well could place higher while Exeter will need their young guns to take another step up if they want finisher higher. But I honestly think that anyone of the teams I've places between 5 and 9 could, if they perform at their limits and get a bit of luck, make the play-offs.

Irish are safe but uninspiring. If Falcons don't play with more imagination this year they could be in trouble but I don't see Welsh being consistent enough to stay up. Poor Piri!

That time of year again - well into pre-season and we are only a week or so away from the start of the best domestic competition in the world.


- Harlequins still have the same issues they did last season. Their pack lacks bite across the board - they do have a couple of very physical players like Marler and Sinckler, but their locks are all a bit callow. This was really exposed in pre-season from what I've seen. Clearly then seem to do alright like this - but If they could up their physicality then I think they could really challenge this season - Matthews, Twomey and Merrick can hopefully do this. Clifford and Trayfoot could both have strong seasons with Mo Fa'asavalou gone. I think they are also going to want to find out whether Botica is a viable candidate to replace Nev when he moves on. I'm sure Grimoldby will be given some game-time this season, and I have an inkling he could be pretty good. Marland Yarde - good. Letting Molenaar go indicates they are banking on JTH being fit and in good form - let's hope he is and that he can actually cause defenses some trouble, otherwise I think they might find the going tough - as they did before they brought Molenaar in. Harry Sloan might also be used quite a bit depending on injuries/form.

Quins players to look out for: Louis Grimoldby, Kyle Sinckler, Joe Trayfoot, Sam Stuart, Jack Clifford and George Merrick.


Other players to look out for:

Exeter: Dave Ewers, LCD
Gloucester: Matt Kvesic, Jacob Rowan, Matt Kvesic, John Afoa, Matt Kvesic, Richard Hibbard, Matt Kvesic, Elliott Stooke, Matt Kvesic, Ross Moriarty, Matt Kvesic, Steve McColl, Matt Kvesic, Dan Robson, Matt Kvesic, Billy Meakes, Matt Kvesic, Henry Purdy, Matt Kvesic and Matt Kvesic.
Leicester: Javiah Pohe, Michele Rizzo, Laurence Pearce, Aneseko Sio and Riccardo Brugnara.
London Irish: Guy Armitage, Halani Aulika and James Short.
London Welsh: err...
Newcastle: Alesana Tuilagi, Josh Furno, Kieran Brookes and Scott Wilson.
Northampton: Will Hooley, Cam Dolan and Teimana Harrison.
Sale: Nathan Hines, Alberto De Marchi, Chris Cussiter and Luke McLean.
Saracens: Maro Itoje, Matt Hankin, Ben Spencer, Nick Tompkins and Juan Figallo. (And Nathan Earle - if he plays)

Nice analysis of Quins position. I'm backing Clifford to have a big season and hopefully Matthews will step up a notch as well. I'd also add that Molenaar's departure is as much about the signing of Tikoirotuma to play 13 as it is about hoping JTH will remain fit. I imagine Grimoldby will be our starting LV 10 and play a big when he isn't up at Nottingham. You're right about this being Botica's time to step up.

In terms of players to look out for, I'd add Sam Hill at Exeter, Harry Thacker at Leicester (although game time may be limited) and Joel Hodgson at Northampton. Also, you seem to have a few too many Kvesics, is he the new Davey Seymour?

How much game time do you think SiSi will get?

 

[ratsapprentice]

Sisi could very well see quite a bit of time because Garvey has had a recurrence of the ankle injury (the same ankle ) that led to him missing the end of last season.

 

[Peat]

Still mulling over my prediction, but backing Sarries to finish top for the simple reason that they have the fewest guys out of the top 4 trotting off to international camps. That's a big advantage and I think it will tell over the course of the ordinary season. I'm not sure I'm backing them to win the play-offs though, still short a few game breakers for my liking and Leicester and Northampton can handle their physicality. I think Leicester and Northampton will meet in the semi-final and whoever wins, will beat Saracens.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_2014–15_Aviva_Premiership_transfers for helping people think.

Re Quins, since they're the big question of the day... tbh, I think the fitness and vitality of Nick Evans is the major issue here, not physicality. I mean, more would be nice, it always is, but the difference between having a genius and a geriatric at 10 is *huge* for them. Leinster dominated the Heineken Cup with a back line of midgets and only a couple of outstanding ball carriers through accuracy and ball handling. Quins should at least be capable of a good season... providing they have Evans strutting his stuff.

Also, read an interview with JTH, reckons he and Lowe are fitter and stronger than ever due to their time out. Would be interesting if they could reach their peaks, they looked like potential England players when that happened (back in 2011 or so...). Feel like Yarde needs more of a mention. If he got that many tries for London Irish last season, god knows what he could do with Quins. He's the sort of cutting edge Quins need to really stretch teams. There's plenty of gas if they can manufacture space - I'd really love to see Chisholm stay fit for a change and Charlie Walker is potentially dynamite.

Can't lie though, the physicality thing is a massive yawning weakness, if I was O'Shea I'd be scouring far and wide for a 17 stone granite-carved psychopath to play 6/8.

Also...

John Afoa - Half think Glaws have been sold a pup. He's had a lot of family troubles, a lot of ****les, I'd be very interested to know if his wife's still in NZ or she's moved to Glaws. The John Afoa that left Ulster won't be hugely missed, certainly not as much as the John Afoa who joined us would have been. Interesting question whether he can put it behind him.

Henry Slade is one I think is a really big one to watch. I think he's got a huge amount of talent and I think the option of him at 12 and Steenson at 10 might be a big one for Exeter... alternately, him overtaking Steenson makes their defence less pourous in general.

Jake Cooper-Wooley needs to keep up the good work if Pests are going to do anything.

Finally, couple of Saints front-rows - Hobbs-Awoyemei looked handy at age grade and Corbs' fragility might offer options, and I still believe that Mike Haywood could be something big...

 

[big ginger 8]

Just in terms of player to look out for Conor Gilsenan has been one of the top rated young prospects we've had, it's just bloody difficult to break into the Leinster backrow. With gametime he could end up being a big player for L.I.

 

[ratsapprentice]

I think even an average TH is all Glos needed - I can't imagine Afoa being anything less than that.

Completely overlooked Slade, Hill too.

Wasps have Festuccia too - don't think Scrummaging will be too much of an issue for them.

I don't think Hobbs is big enough to impact at the sort of level Saints require yet.

 

[Peat]

Yeah, Afoa will be that, providing he's fit, but not sure he's going to be stand out.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

My predictions:
1. Saracens
2. Tigers
3. Saints
4. Bath
[...]
12. London Irish

5th and 6th very hard to call, though I think maybe 5th Gloucester, 6th Harlequins - though Sale and/or Wasps could possibly feature.


Going to be very competitive league this season, most clubs have strengthened themselves quite well.

 

[Geordie]

Newcastle: Alesana Tuilagi, Josh Furno, Kieran Brookes and Scott Wilson.

Add Jaun Pablo Socino to that list...he was the only one (aside from Sinoti) who looked worth watching this season from the game i saw on Saturday. Keiron Brookes looked like he was still on holiday etc

As for Players to watch...my list would be
Newcastle: Keiron Brookes, Dom Barrow, Sinoti Sinoti, Juan Pablo Socino

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Sisi could very well see quite a bit of time because Garvey has had a recurrence of the ankle injury (the same ankle ) that led to him missing the end of last season.

Heard it was ligament damage.

With him and Louw missing for the start of season Bath will struggle imo, that's there 2 best backrowers gone, and they have to play Sale (A), Leicester (H), Saints (A), Sarries (H), Wasps (A)

All games they could well lose even with Louw and Garvey.

Leicester player to watch for me is (out of the new players): Loamanu how many players can play 6,8,13,14,15 has looked dangerous when I have seen him both for Toulon and Treviso, and they finally have a like for like replacement for Manu which we have missed when he was gone, Also Barbieri is a more physical alternative 8 to Waldrom and considering he has been the highest try scoring forward in the pro 12 (2012/13 season) could be a monster to stop near the try line. and ghilrandi will push Youngs to the end for the starting 2.

 

[Peat]

Ghiraldini has been a far, far more convincing hooker at international level recently. It wouldn't surprise me if Youngs lost the shirt pretty quick.

 

[TheSaffycen]

The players I would look out for are- Figallo, Itoje, Hamilton, Spencer, Streather
Every year we get too the same point where we ain't very physical and we fall at the final hurdle, this year we can improve. Last year we had Vunipola, Brits, Stevens, Borthwick, Hargreaves,Brown, Burger Vunipola. In that pack we only had 2 ball carriers and we where easily matched by other teams. This year Vunipola, Brits, Figallo, Hamilton, Kruis, Itoje(I hope he plays alot), Fraser, Vunipola This year we have a real physical pack that can front up instead of absorb pressure. I think we will do very well and I hope we will win it. Tigers will most likely win it but still.

 

[ratsapprentice]

I don't think you can really include Hamilton in the "players to watch" category seeing as though his first game for Saracens will be his 123rd for an English club and 11 years after his Premiership debut!

 

[TheSaffycen]

I didn't mean too my phone keeps doing this !! I start typing a sentence then all of a sudden im on the next line up and I cant find where I was writing !

 

[Geordie]

Interesting about George Lowe...he's a player i rated so highly.

He could have made that England 13 spot his own. He seems to be able to create space for others...straighten the line etc.

Hope he's recovered well from his serious neck injury...

 

[Patchey]

The idea of George Lowe being fit again is pretty exciting, he's a really good 13 who combines power with the ability to put people in space. At he's best he's exactly what England want Burrell to be, IMO. However I feel there are two caveats to his return. Firstly, he's adopted the strange long hair, half pony tail half top knot hair style that a worrying number of Quins players have tried recently. Secondly, he has been out for a very long time and at one stage went months without even being able to jog. Obviously he's back and match fit now but it remains to be seen how such a long, serious lay off has effected his confidence and how long it will take him to get back up to speed with the demands of top flight rugby.

Also, if JTH is as dire as he was at 12 last season, Lowe won't get any decent ball anyway so its all moot!

Every year we get too the same point where we ain't very physical and we fall at the final hurdle, this year we can improve. Last year we had Vunipola, Brits, Stevens, Borthwick, Hargreaves,Brown, Burger Vunipola. In that pack we only had 2 ball carriers and we where easily matched by other teams. This year Vunipola, Brits, Figallo, Hamilton, Kruis, Itoje(I hope he plays alot), Fraser, Vunipola This year we have a real physical pack that can front up instead of absorb pressure. I think we will do very well and I hope we will win it. Tigers will most likely win it but still.

Is your pack that much better than least season though? Serious question because I'm not convinced. I'd certainly suggest that Tigers, Saints and Bath have all closed the gap on you in terms of strength in the forwards. I thought your eight last year was pretty terrifying but, Itoje aside, I can't see how any of your new players will bring anything you didn't have before.

 

[Geordie]

Will Itoje get much game time though? Will him and Burger rotate?

 

[TheSaffycen]

Is your pack that much better than least season though? Serious question because I'm not convinced. I'd certainly suggest that Tigers, Saints and Bath have all closed the gap on you in terms of strength in the forwards. I thought your eight last year was pretty terrifying but, Itoje aside, I can't see how any of your new players will bring anything you didn't have before.

I believe so. Last year we had big problems with our props. Our back 5 was really good as a unit, but teams would beat up Johnston and Stevens. Now we have Figallo, who if fit is the best tighthead in the world, and Longbottom is also a very good looking back up. In the locks Hamilton is a massive unit and combined with Kruis we have a real engine room this year instead of Hargreaves and Borthwick which is a very smart second row but lacks grunt. Back row wise Burger is still there and is a great player, Fraser is probably better over the ball and i would play him. Brown is a good tackler but Itoje too me is like a bulky Tom Croft, I cant wait too see him playing 6 alot for us. If we wanted too put out a massive pack last year we couldn't really, this year we have-
1.Vunipola 2.Brits 3.Figallo 4.Hamilton 5.Hargreaves 6.Kruis 7.Burger 8.Vunipola 16.George 17.Barrington 18.Longbottom 19.Itoje 20.Fraser
Our starting pack there is really big and physical, and the bench this year has some serious grunt. Last year we had to carry Stevens, Borthwick, Joubert(Not at his best anymore ) All this depends on Figallo returning from injury, if he is the force he was we will destroy other teams up top instead of nullifying them. We lost too Saints because our pack couldn't inflict damage on them and we lost too Toulon for the same reason.

Will Itoje get much game time though? Will him and Burger rotate?

Itoje plays 4,5,6,8 and Burger plays 7 so he wont rotate with him. Burger will rotate with Fraser and Itoje will rotate with Brown/Wray and the locks.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

My predictions:
1. Saracens
2. Tigers
3. Saints
4. Bath
[...]
12. London Irish

Well I got the top 4, just not in the right order

Slightly off with my relegation though :lol:
Irish were a bit better than I expected and Welsh 100 times worse.