NZ Volcano

[Which Tyler]

Stay safe kiwis!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-50708727

 

[Amiga500]

Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that any of those missing will turn up alive after the ash gets at them.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

Stay safe kiwis!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-50708727

also unfortunately it sounds like most were from a cruise ship from Aussie

Last i heard 5 dead and 8 missing but presumed dead

all the "experts" coming out saying they though it was about to blow or they'd never set foot on the island, quiet before the tragedy though weren't they

 

[Brigantine]

all the "experts" coming out saying they though it was about to blow or they'd never set foot on the island, quiet before the tragedy though weren't they

You say that, but the first thing I looked at after I heard it erupted... 4 of the 5 notices before the eruption, stretching back a month, were specifically about White Island and the escalating volcanic situation there.

On Dec 3, 6 days before the eruption:

Observations and data to date suggest that the volcano may be entering a period where eruptive activity is more likely than normal.

Volcanic Alert Level 2 is mostly associated with unrest hazards on the volcano and could include eruptions of steam, gas, mud and rocks. These eruptions can occur with little or no warning.

It had been at Volcanic Alert Level 2 since Nov 18. The "eruption" was not lava, it was that "steam, gas, mud and rocks" thing that they say can happen at alert level 2.

I'm sure everyone who had any business with White Island would have known.
The trouble is that "about to blow" means "any month now, maybe". You're still 99.9% gonna be fine making a quick visit, and *that's when volcanoes are the most interesting*

White Island is an active volcano, that's it's whole deal, that's why people go there. You take a calculated risk. I can see how the risk/reward is different for "experts" with time up their sleeve than an Aussie adventurer who's there for 1 day and has 1 chance. If I was one of them, I probably would have still gone, knowing the risks. Until there's evidence otherwise, I'll assume everyone had the info and made an informed choice, and power to them even though it's sad how it turned out.

Don't know what to think about the guides who were there for their job. People treat risk differently when it's work related.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

i agree, the fact its an active volcano is the exact reason people were going to it, my point (poorly stated maybe) was more that coming out now saying they "knew" something was about to happen serves little purpose other than making those people feel righteous

the "warnings" dont exactly scream "danger" to the average person, anymore than might be associated with any adventure sport, something that NZ is known for

 

[Brigantine]

I get what you're saying. I guess I'm just cynical and blame journalists fishing around and asking scientists leading questions, rather than "experts" proactively seeking attention.

Someone rings you up out of the blue and asks "If you're such a great scientist, how come you didn't know that volcanoes could be dangerous?", "would you go to White Island for a picnic?"
"What the hell are you talking about? Of course we knew! It's normal, that's what a Volcanic Alert means", "Of course not, I'd never go to an active volcano without a good reason"
Then an article appears saying "Look at this guy, he says he knew White Island could erupt at any moment, so dangerous that he'd never go there"

Re your last point, yeah, that's true. But OTOH people just ignore tsunami warnings because there have been so many that were hyped up and ended up being a big nothingburger. It's hard to make people take this sort of frequent low-probability-high-consequence risk seriously. (But for people who were actually organizing to go to White Island, I'm sure they talked about it properly)