November Internationals: Expectations for your team

[Leonormous Boozer]

What does good, bad and ugly look like for your team?

I'm super hyped (came across like a dick starting the Eng v NZ thread as a result...) but also a bit out of touch having not been massively invested in international rugby for 12 months, so using this as a crash course.

For Ireland 3 out of 4 wins will be seen as a failure but NZ first up is far from ideal with no form 10 in the country. Still, having not lost in Dublin for over 5 years and here in a November international for 8, a loss has to be seen as unacceptable.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Eng *should* beat Aus and Jap. The Boks *should* beat us so the whole thing hinges on the ABs match and after the summer it will be a disappointment not to take them down at home.

Tough to see us either being 4/4 or 1/4. So 3/4 is good while 2/4 wouldn’t really tell us much either way.

Continuing to evolve playing style would be good (Mitchell out is a big setback) but more interested in results and progress of individual players. Hope to see Baxter and CCS among others taking opportunities. Will be keeping an eye on George as I think he’s close to running on empty.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Minimum: 2/4
We should be expecting to beat Australia and Japan at home, just end of really

Good: 3/4. Turning over one of South Africa or New Zealand would be a step forward in our development - considering how up and down our form has been it'd be a great feather in the cap

Great: 4/4 - feels a bit pie in the sky, but is what it is

My guess is 2.5/4

I could see one of the NZ/Boks games being really close, coin flip late penalty to win with us being relatively happy with our performance in a win or loss, and the other being a blowout loss

 

[Welsh Exile]

Realistically if we can just beat Fiji first up but lose to Aus and SA then that would be ok. I think we should really be beating Fiji and Australia, that would be considered a very good autumn for us. Win all 3 and that’s outstanding but extremely ulikely. Lose all 3 and Gatland should be sacked (wishful thinking)

 

[dullonien]

Same Exile. We're notoriously slow starters under Gats though, so I can easily see it all going a bit wrong against Fiji and Aus; then weirdly push SA close, only to lose in tge closing stages. Gats survives due to 'progress being made' despite residing over our worst losing run in history!

Or we win all three and usher in a new golden era for Welsh rugby....

 

[Welsh Exile]

Same Exile. We're notoriously slow starters under Gats though, so I can easily see it all going a bit wrong against Fiji and Aus; then weirdly push SA close, only to lose in tge closing stages. Gats survives due to 'progress being made' despite residing over our worst losing run in history!

Or we win all three and usher in a new golden era for Welsh rugby....

The thing that worries me about Fiji is I've only just realised they're playing Scotland this weekend so won't be coming into our game cold as I was expecting. I'll check the odds in a bit but honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if there's not much between the teams odds wise.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Eating up rugby content this week. Pollard on "For the Love of Rugby" (never listened before) is good. Refreshing to hear him see accolades outside of the rugby world cup are required to elevate a team also. Wish more rugby fans would listen and not disregard test matches like these, they're generally the games I enjoy the most.

 

[Saintjay]

Tough one. I think England are on a 50% win ratio since the world cup.

They are something like 2 wins from the last six. I think 3/4 shows improvement. If it's 2/2 I'm not sure where England go. Borthwick has had enough time now.

They need to kick on from France, AB's, SA, coulda, woulda, shoulda loses. England need to show they can beat top teams not only the ability to beat teams below them. Other than the Ireland result of course.

 

[AlRums]

Like that see Scotland win 3/4 at least, at bare minimum 2/4

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Feel like Scotland, and at times England have never used November well. They're great fixtures to build momentum and confidence and it's a time whete the team is based at home and should be incredibly comfortable.

2013 into 2014 aside (and there were lots of external factors there), Ireland always started periods of success with a strong autumn. The momentum the side currently has all started in 2021.

 

[General Melchett]

Like that see Scotland win 3/4 at least, at bare minimum 2/4

3/4 for me. We should be beating a mid transition Australia and Fiji at home but will likely get strangled up front against the Boks.

 

[OllyM97]

I think anything less than 3 wins for England is disappointing. Our chances of beating New Zealand this year are probably better than they’ve been at any time since the early 2000s. Given the ability of the two teams and how close we came in the summer, I actually expect us to win on Saturday. If we can knock over the ABs then 3 wins should be in the bag,

Predictions:
NZ - could go either way, England by 3-5 points.
Aus - England comfortably, 10+
SA - Boks too good, SA by 8-10 points.
Japan - Easy, England 30+

We’ve played well in our last 3 test matches against the big teams but lost every one of them, need to snap that run and win a close one against a top team before it becomes a “thing”.

 

[Reiser99]

For me 2 out of 4 would be disappointing and show England are a bit stagnant. Need to beat the ABs after the summer to show progress. If England want to win the next world cup then they need to start winning some games against the top 4 more regularly. Not every time, but at least one win per series/6Ns.

 

[Which Tyler]

2 from 4 would be a disappointing par (much like 3rd/4th in the RWC, 3rd in the 6N and 2 narrow losses in NZ), and would be the full stop at the end of a disappointing year of rugby, with a 50% winning record.
Not enough to be calling for Slightly Baffling's head, but needing a real improvement next year or I will ruin out of patience fairly soon. Our player base is better than 50% win ratio.
For me, par is what you'd expect with the group of players getting together an giving it a lash; a good coach should exceed par, and bad coach can be an active impediment.

 

[ncurd]

Feel like Scotland, and at times England have never used November well.

Historically we always play SA whom we have a terrible record against and Aus whom we have a good one. This typically leads to us loosing one game which is why we don't build momentum out of it.

 

[Which Tyler]

France have Japan, NZ and Argentina.

Japan should be a gimme.
Argentina to give them a good challenge, but still fall short.
NZ - depends on which NZ turns up (just to reverse the usual) - it's plausible that they come into that match off losses to both England and Ireland, and looking to make someone pay. It's also possible they come off the same 2 losses and just can't wait to get home. Alternatively, they might come in off 2 wins and be playing with their tails up. This far out, a big win for France, a big win for NZ and a <5 point result all seem equally likely.

I expect 2 wins and a loss; 3 wins would be excellent, 2 losses would be poor but well within the realms of the plausible

 

[AlRums]

France have Japan, NZ and Argentina.

Japan should be a gimme.
Argentina to give them a good challenge, but still fall short.
NZ - depends on which NZ turns up (just to reverse the usual) - it's plausible that they come into that match off losses to both England and Ireland, and looking to make someone pay. It's also possible they come off the same 2 losses and just can't wait to get home. Alternatively, they might come in off 2 wins and be playing with their tails up. This far out, a big win for France, a big win for NZ and a <5 point result all seem equally likely.

I expect 2 wins and a loss; 3 wins would be excellent, 2 losses would be poor but well within the realms of the plausible

Don't forget the ABs will be looking for revenge for that world cup defeat last year as well

 

[AlRums]

Feel like Scotland, and at times England have never used November well. They're great fixtures to build momentum and confidence and it's a time whete the team is based at home and should be incredibly comfortable.

2013 into 2014 aside (and there were lots of external factors there), Ireland always started periods of success with a strong autumn. The momentum the side currently has all started in 2021.

They're six nations preparation, it's an opportunity to blood new players at home before the competition that really counts

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

They're six nations preparation, it's an opportunity to blood new players at home before the competition that really counts

Preparation for the 6 nations, kind of, effective friendlies to blood new guys, definitely not. I don't think you can take that approach building in modern international rugby that way, building from a middling tier 1 team to a top tier 1 team takes about 2 years and defending home court is the bread and butter, NZ were the only contenders at the last world cup not to have a 100% home record in the two years prior to it I'm fairly sure.

From an Irish POV I think us going 4/4 this November is far more important a target than winning the championship this year, losing in Dublin is a step backwards.

Equally for England and Scotland, if they want to step up to challenge Ireland and France for the championship next year I think they need to go 4/4 to be honest. Whether either side is capable of doing so is obviously a different matter.

The last team to win a slam and not go unbeaten in the autumn was France in 2010 when sharper peaks and troughs were more common. (A couple winners after world cup years since but they tend to be a bit random)

For NH sides, I think a bad 6 nations can kill momentum worse than a bad autumn but long term building starts in November for me, France and Ireland in 2021 started their current dominance of NH rugby then imo.

Anyway, my predictions are as follows, very close calls in there, not confident on any of England, Wales or Scotland:

Ireland 4/4 - very worried about our 10 situation for NZ but presume that will be a very emotionally charged and dominant pack performance.

France 3/3 - Dupont is back.

England 2/4 - don't see them turning SA and I think NZ could be stuttery for them giving the changes.

Scotland 2/4 - I think Schmidt really targets them and SA beats them too.

Wales - 2/3 - Gatland with his back against the wall to pull out ugly wins v Oz and Fiji, there'sa little bit to build from the regions that hasn'tbeen there in the last couple years amd they need to establish themselves back in that 5-8 ranked tier.

Italy - 2/3 - Focus on the Pumas and I think they've way too much for Georgia.

 

[AlRums]

Preparation for the 6 nations, kind of, effective friendlies to blood new guys, definitely not. I don't think you can take that approach building in modern international rugby that way, building from a middling tier 1 team to a top tier 1 team takes about 2 years and defending home court is the bread and butter, NZ were the only contenders at the last world cup not to have a 100% home record in the two years prior to it I'm fairly sure.

From an Irish POV I think us going 4/4 this November is far more important a target than winning the championship this year, losing in Dublin is a step backwards.

Equally for England and Scotland, if they want to step up to challenge Ireland and France for the championship next year I think they need to go 4/4 to be honest. Whether either side is capable of doing so is obviously a different matter.

The last team to win a slam and not go unbeaten in the autumn was France in 2010 when sharper peaks and troughs were more common. (A couple winners after world cup years since but they tend to be a bit random)

For NH sides, I think a bad 6 nations can kill momentum worse than a bad autumn but long term building starts in November for me, France and Ireland in 2021 started their current dominance of NH rugby then imo.

Anyway, my predictions are as follows, very close calls in there, not confident on any of England, Wales or Scotland:

Ireland 4/4 - very worried about our 10 situation for NZ but presume that will be a very emotionally charged and dominant pack performance.

France 3/3 - Dupont is back.

England 2/4 - don't see them turning SA and I think NZ could be stuttery for them giving the changes.

Scotland 2/4 - I think Schmidt really targets them and SA beats them too.

Wales - 2/3 - Gatland with his back against the wall to pull out ugly wins v Oz and Fiji, there'sa little bit to build from the regions that hasn'tbeen there in the last couple years amd they need to establish themselves back in that 5-8 ranked tier.

Italy - 2/3 - Focus on the Pumas and I think they've way too much for Georgia.

Interesting that you think that Australia will beat Scotland and lose to Wales.