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Northern dominance?

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dirty harry

First XV
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Jun 24, 2023
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Before the tournament I was discussing with a friend the idea that the semi finals could be made up of the RC 4 teams (NZ, SA, Aus, Arg), and TBh he had a point. Aus aside the other 3 were looking strong, and arguably small favourites to top their groups, allowing for pretty much ALL NH v SH quarter finals, and an ALL SH semis...

My counter to this was that it may well reverse, and an all NH semis may happen (although I'll be honest I didnt really believe it).

But here we are, 1 game away from a near NH full sweep (sorry scotland) and potentially an all NH v SH quarter final draw.

So what do we think, can European rugby dominate the semis?
 
It could shape that way certainly. I suppose you would even have to say that atm the NH sides would be favorites in each of the more likely qfs as well even if only slight favorites in each case.

Just to clarify I have the most likely match ups being

Ire v NZ
Fran v Sa
Wal v Arg
Eng v Fiji

I suppose looking at that now probably Wales and England would even be firm(ish) favorites? And then Ireland and France favorites and not slight favorites as I said but then losing to either NZ or SA would not be considered upsets either.
 
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TRF_stormer2010 said:
It could shape that way certainly. I suppose you would even have to say that atm the NH sides would be favorites in each of the more likely qfs as well even if only slight favorites in each case.

Just to clarify I have the most likely match ups being

Ire v NZ
Fran v Sa
Wal v Arg
Eng v Fiji

I suppose looking at that now probably Wales and England would even be firm(ish) favorites? And then Ireland and France favorites and not slight favorites as I said but then losing to either NZ or SA would not be considered upsets either.
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I probably agree with those quarters, and I certainly agree with the outcomes.

I think England deal with Fiji, theyve been great but the Aus win has been put into perspective a bit. England certainly would prefer dealing with fijian brutality than Welsh momentum.

Dream quarter for Wales, certainly not wanting the old enemy in the quarter stage. This is probably the most likely for a SH progression IMO. Argentina started bad, getting better, they are a bot of form away from being very dangerous again, or Japan turn the tables who knows lol.

France v SA is the battle of the bulk, after seeing Ireland demolish the blitz with brain over brawn, France must be confident of adding that to their armory, although no Dupont makes it harder. France slight favourites, but if anyone is going to beat France I think SA are best placed followed by the Welsh knowledge of Edward's defencive sets.

Ireland v NZ I personally think is a blow out, Ireland by 10+. NZ have too many limitations and Ireland have clear dominance over a below average kiwi team lacking unbelievably belief. That said, NZ by 20 wouldnt shock me, massive mental hurdles are hard to overcome, I was there in 2015 predicting Ireland by 15 v Argentina like everyone else.

So would that make:

Ireland v Wales?
England v France?
 
die_mole said:
After the tournament I am going to start discourse on whether SA joining URC sharpened their iron more.
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This is a very pertinent point I hadnt considered!!!! Bols always had beasts up front, but the type of control added to that recently you think is European influence / knowledge gained?
 
Has there ever been a semis round without at least 2 SH sides? Dont think so.

Do you guys remember what 2015's semis round was called?
 
2015 was a weird one and showed why world cups can be so random. Ireland and France killed each other a week before them and showed up to the QFs injured and fatigued. No way France beat that NZ team but a fit Ireland team would have won their game I reckon. Keith Earls dropped an easy 2 on 1 in that France game that would have put Ireland three scores clear early in the first half, I still blame that for us not reaching a final that year, could have got a few key guys off the pitch.

Scotland got robbed.

Wales had a really bad problem with SH teams at the time.

In hindsight the four teams that should have been expected to win at KO of the QFs did although, but for strange circumstances of Ireland and France emptying themselves to avoid NZ and then Craig Joubert it's probably 2-2. Though, if my aunt had balls etc...

Avoiding strange circumstances I reckon this year the 4-0 NH sweep is the expected result but there's three close games there and it only takes a bad referee call or two or a couple of training injuries to shift those odds.

If it happens, let's talk about it (and enjoy it to ****) but its way off yet and unlikely for everything to fall into place.
 
Whore of Shame said:
2015 was a weird one and showed why world cups can be so random. Ireland and France killed each other a week before them and showed up to the QFs injured and fatigued. No way France beat that NZ team but a fit Ireland team would have won their game I reckon. Keith Earls dropped an easy 2 on 1 in that France game that would have put Ireland three scores clear early in the first half, I still blame that for us not reaching a final that year, could have got a few key guys off the pitch.

Scotland got robbed.

Wales had a really bad problem with SH teams at the time.

In hindsight the four teams that should have been expected to win at KO of the QFs did although, but for strange circumstances of Ireland and France emptying themselves to avoid NZ and then Craig Joubert it's probably 2-2. Though, if my aunt had balls etc...

Avoiding strange circumstances I reckon this year the 4-0 NH sweep is the expected result but there's three close games there and it only takes a bad referee call or two or a couple of training injuries to shift those odds.

If it happens, let's talk about it (and enjoy it to ****) but its way off yet and unlikely for everything to fall into place.
Click to expand...
I'll never forget Joubert running from the pitch. Decision right or wrong, we know now it was wrong, but it must have been blwdy hard to figure out then, especially without assistance, the reaction of running away was gobsmacking!
 
dirty harry said:
I'll never forget Joubert running from the pitch. Decision right or wrong, we know now it was wrong, but it must have been blwdy hard to figure out then, especially without assistance, the reaction of running away was gobsmacking!
Click to expand...
It's rare to see that bad a decision to end a game and alter the result. The only other one I can think of was Poite saving the Lions in 2017. The man must have panicked after realising he'd made a balls of it and reacted in the worst way possible. Shocking from a pro though.
 
Whore of Shame said:
It's rare to see that bad a decision to end a game and alter the result. The only other one I can think of was Poite saving the Lions in 2017. The man must have panicked after realising he'd made a balls of it and reacted in the worst way possible. Shocking from a pro though.
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Reacted in the worst way possible? He didnt run from the pitch and lock himself away too did he?
 
Watch New Zealand or South Africa win the whole thing now!

But it is good to see more parity overall.
 
die_mole said:
After the tournament I am going to start discourse on whether SA joining URC sharpened their iron more.
Click to expand...
I think the timing is just ever so slightly off for it to be the only or even main reason but in saying that I find it difficult to argue against it having an impact.

And the same for the inverse IMO. Aussie was already sliding backwards and with NZ I think they had full blown professional before everyone else followed by a golden generation but are simply being caught up. I don't think their not absolutely owning the #1 spot anymore is only down to SA sides leaving SR.

dirty harry said:
I probably agree with those quarters, and I certainly agree with the outcomes.

I think England deal with Fiji, theyve been great but the Aus win has been put into perspective a bit. England certainly would prefer dealing with fijian brutality than Welsh momentum.

Dream quarter for Wales, certainly not wanting the old enemy in the quarter stage. This is probably the most likely for a SH progression IMO. Argentina started bad, getting better, they are a bot of form away from being very dangerous again, or Japan turn the tables who knows lol.

France v SA is the battle of the bulk, after seeing Ireland demolish the blitz with brain over brawn, France must be confident of adding that to their armory, although no Dupont makes it harder. France slight favourites, but if anyone is going to beat France I think SA are best placed followed by the Welsh knowledge of Edward's defencive sets.

Ireland v NZ I personally think is a blow out, Ireland by 10+. NZ have too many limitations and Ireland have clear dominance over a below average kiwi team lacking unbelievably belief. That said, NZ by 20 wouldnt shock me, massive mental hurdles are hard to overcome, I was there in 2015 predicting Ireland by 15 v Argentina like everyone else.

So would that make:

Ireland v Wales?
England v France?
Click to expand...

I think we have a decent enough shot vs France Dupont or no. I'm more concerned about having to match Ramos' boot TBH. But I have faith we will bring in Pollard and play to our strengths rather than what we saw vs Ireland.

And in saying that I wouldn't say Ireland demolished us. Not in the slightest even. I saw more than enough to even go as far as calling us slight favorites vs them if we meet again later on although I know that goes full on against what the scoreboard says. Might just be my stuborness talking though!
 
TRF_stormer2010 said:
It could shape that way certainly. I suppose you would even have to say that atm the NH sides would be favorites in each of the more likely qfs as well even if only slight favorites in each case.

Just to clarify I have the most likely match ups being

Ire v NZ
Fran v Sa
Wal v Arg
Eng v Fiji

I suppose looking at that now probably Wales and England would even be firm(ish) favorites? And then Ireland and France favorites and not slight favorites as I said but then losing to either NZ or SA would not be considered upsets either.
Click to expand...

Fiji beating England (again) would be wonderful for them. Love seeing them play.
 

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