So I was thinking about how Lancaster is going and I came up with the following:
Good solid pack
Not settled half backs
No 1st choice centre pair
Attacking back play still missing
Won a few but nothing major
Then I remembered how I felt going Into the last World Cup with Martin Johnson and we actually had all the same things as above!
So really have we improved or have we just gone sideways? The problems we have now are exactly the same as we had under Martin Johnson.
So should Lancaster be fired?
I hear you but I'm in two minds. When you put it like that, I agree, in terms of core strengths and competencies how much have we moved it on?
Good solid pack - I would argue we have a really excellent pack, actually. Question mark over Wood. We've brought in Laucnhbury, now Kruis, brought back Attwood, Vunipola, Morgan, Robshaw, Mako, Webber. Definite strengthening there.
Not settled half backs - Disagree, I think we have a settled first choice pairing in Farrell and Care, neither of whom had great games last week. We know our pecking order. The issue is the coaches perseverance with Ben Youngs, and the lack of any genuine faith shown in any 10 other than Fazlet. Or at least, faith shown in the werong 10s; Burns over Cipriani was hugely iniquitous imo.
No 1st choice centre pair - Agree. Having said this, Lancaster has more, and better, options than Johnson ever has and arguably therefore a harder job!
Attacking back play still missing - Not missing by any means, a forward-back linkage is often excellent, 1-15 our players are more confident and capable of slinging it around. The issue which, I would agree we have, is in structured, phase attacks. We desperately need a backs expert to join the team.
Won a few but nothing major - For me, the Triple Crown was extremely satisfying to win. Sure, that's hardly a raise on Johnsons six nations victory but we actually won the same number of games last six nations as we did when we won in 2011.
Overall I agree that on paper in terms of achievements, and looking at win ratio under Lancaster, we haven't moved on, but I think that disguises some very real improvements.
Jury's out whether lancaster will be the man to turn a 'top 5 side' into a 'top 2' side.
In my opinion, you cannot emphasise enough how important these next 3 games are. 3 Wins, and Lancaster has now beaten every team he has played during his 'reign', including every top team. This will mark a real improvement over 3 years ago. However if we lose this next match to the Boks, Lancaster will be in a position whereby the best he can do is match previous years record, which isn't much to aim for and may see further erosion of confidence.
Despite what I've just said, its the players who need to take responsibility for the key moments on the field. Lancaster did not make Mike Brown drop that ball which could have taken us into a 12 - 0 lead. Coaches are responsible for developing, somehow, the skill level of the players; but they're not responsible for their skill levels in absolute terms.
I believe only a wider cultural shift in the Northern hemipshere will bring our absolute skill levels closer to those of the Southern teams. i don't think that Lancaster and Catt can address this in the space of a few weeks training camps.
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