Italy?

[Dai Perk]

Hello, friends,

Lots of talk this week about the upcoming Six Nations. To a person, everyone has already utterly dismissed Italy's chances. From the little I've seen, that makes sense, but surely they will at least play spoiler in a game or two? If I was an Italian rooting for my team, what are my expectations, realistically?

Thanks as always, can't WAIT for this weekend,

-Dave

 

[Chief Pete]

Hello, friends,

Lots of talk this week about the upcoming Six Nations. To a person, everyone has already utterly dismissed Italy's chances. From the little I've seen, that makes sense, but surely they will at least play spoiler in a game or two? If I was an Italian rooting for my team, what are my expectations, realistically?

Thanks as always, can't WAIT for this weekend,

-Dave

Honestly if I where an Italian fan I'd be hoping not to get trounced too badly by Ireland, England and Wales and possibly trying to stay in the Scotland game until 60ish minutes, I'd hope they'd have a go against a flakey French team but would ultimately expect a defeat by 10-15 points...

Italy are getting better and are better then any alternative at the moment IMO, so as long as it stays a 6 team tournament I'd keep them in...

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

As I said on the other thread, if Italy get whitewashed as we all expect that would be one win out of 30 in the 6N. That's not good enough in such a small tournament and it's not like they're newcomers who haven't had the chance, they joined the competition in 2000 and by now we should be expecting more than the odd ballsy performance. Going back a decade they used to win one most years, but that was a comparatively vintage crop of players that they haven't been able to replace and the domestic supporting structure just isn't there (as it's not for Arg or Georgia either).

Right now I'm not seeing that they're adding a massive amount apart from a decent anthem and the prospect of a nice weekend in the eternal city. I know they beat Georgia last year, but they're now below them in the rankings and I wonder what Georgia, for one, would now be doing if they'd have had 20 years exposure in the tournament.

I wouldn't kick them out lightly, but their place shouldn't be a sinecure either. Am coming round to the idea of some form of second division and promotion / relegation.

 

[General Melchett]

As I said on the other thread, if Italy get whitewashed as we all expect that would be one win out of 30 in the 6N. That's not good enough in such a small tournament and it's not like they're newcomers who haven't had the chance, they joined the competition in 2000 and by now we should be expecting more than the odd ballsy performance. Going back a decade they used to win one most years, but that was a comparatively vintage crop of players that they haven't been able to replace and the domestic supporting structure just isn't there (as it's not for Arg or Georgia either).

Right now I'm not seeing that they're adding a massive amount apart from a decent anthem and the prospect of a nice weekend in the eternal city. I know they beat Georgia last year, but they're now below them in the rankings and I wonder what Georgia, for one, would now be doing if they'd have had 20 years exposure in the tournament.

I wouldn't kick them out lightly, but their place shouldn't be a sinecure either. Am coming round to the idea of some form of second division and promotion / relegation.

If the calendar allowed it, I would be in favour of moving back to five nations with home and away fixtures which would more accurate standings come the end of the tournament (currently home advantage is king). Three games would take place during the AI window with the remaining five during the current 6N window. That means less time against SH opposition but maybe one game could be squeezed in Autumn/summer with emerging players getting more of an opportunity in those.

 

[andysimcoe]

If I were an Italian fan my realistic expectations would be to win 1 game, any game and not lose by too much at Scotland and aim for the win. While I'm a Scotland fan, the win in 2015 was probably their best away win - it was a battle for the wooden spoon back then though. It's not enough to get 1 win and get 5th now - especially if it's like 2018 and England is 5th.

As for their place in the tournament the wordage I have seen is slightly different these days, it used to be "The top 6 nations in Europe", obviously as said Georgia have managed to pass Italy in world rankings, however, in the late 90's ~97? Italy were ranked higher than the home nations, only France were ranked higher from the 5 nations. Georgia year in year out win the Rugby Europe Championship, Romania at times have challenged but not really recently. Other 2nd/3rd tier teams like Spain, Germany and Russia aren't beating Georgia and Italy comfortably beat them recently.

I personally wouldn't want to see it drop back to a 5 Nations and there's no team that can realistically compete as well as Italy did when they joined - so I don't know if the argument of where might Georgia or Romania be if they had 20 years of 6 Nations money, holds much. The Georgian team hasn't been badly funded, I believe privately. Though sure, a nation like Georgia would certainly benefit.

I think ultimately we're in the professional era of rugby but it's still in its infancy. Players and teams at club level are wanting more and more money, many teams losing money. There's absolutely no way the championship will want to lose a country like Italy to be replaced with the likes of Georgia. Purely due to sponsorship and brand deals. It's just not as lucrative, if the tier 1 European championship (6N) wasn't ring fenced and had promotion / relegation like the lower tiers, I think this would put some money at risk.

Now, if you had Germany and Spain at the heels of Italy, you can absolutely bet they'd be approached with a 2-3 year plan of bringing them into the top tier.

Oh and part of what makes the 6Ns what is is, purely IMO is the ease of travel between the nations so many fans do go. I'm not sure we'd see many going as far as Georgia on an annual basis but I'd like to be wrong.

 

[Chief Pete]

The issue here is if your priority is to protect the integrity and competitiveness of the tournament then going back to 5 teams would fix this, offering a promotion/relegation scenario wouldn't as you'd basically be swapping one whipping boy for another, and the powers that be have given Italy such a long time to crack it that those outside looking in are even worse placed off than the Italians, introducing Georgia etc at this stage would be pointless if a year later they were out again and Italy were back in, relegation/promotion wouldn't improve Italian rugby or any tier 2 nation IMO....

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Low key, Benneton have been better than any of the Welsh regions at this point in the season. I think Italy used to try to build from the top down and that doesn't work, they're starting from grassroots now and have been for two years and they've pulled out good players like Negri and Minozzi who are about as good as anyone they've produced in their history. (considering Dominguez and Parisse grew up in Argentina) Their U20s had their most successful year ever last year and their U18s beat England, they're showing more at all levels than any European tier 2 nation and they're obviously a more attractive market. If Conor O'Shea could see the light and continue his Director of Rugby duties and get a better head coach in they'd be in a great position to start attacking 6n wins against France and Scotland at home regularly and start putting pressure on the other three if they fail to show up on the day.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I'm going to save my doom and gloom until after the final whistle. So, avoiding a rant for once I'd say there are grounds for expecting that Italy:

- average 2x tries a game
- concede less than 60 points in every game
- sneak a losing BP against Scotland OR France
- produce a moment or two in each match in open play where neutral fans concede they can provide some entertainment

I think the above is achievable based on ever improving Benneton performance and previous years international experience.

It is the absolute bare minimum of what would be acceptable to me though. This is a terribly mediocre France and I think Scotland may have regressed a little compared to the past two seasons at back row, 9 & 12. BPs should not be unthinkable in those games for a well drilled team based on the talent at Italy's disposal.

I can't face looking at team selection. If Benvenuti is on the wing again I think I'll have an episode.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Their U20s had their most successful year ever last year and their U18s beat England.

Which is fantastic, but as we know in Eng, age group success guarantees precisely nothing, although maybe its a slightly different equation for Italy with a smaller player pool.

Ultimately in the 6N they're judged on the results of the senior team. Honestly struggling to think of such perennial whipping boys in any other elite level sport. I genuinely hope that they can turn it around, but conversations should be had if they can't.

 

[Dai Perk]

Wow - I knew I could count on y'all for some incisive and well-thought-out commentary!

I hadn't even thought of the notion of promotion and relegation for a tournament as small as this, but now I'm utterly intrigued. But I think you're right, the teams nipping at the heels would have to be close geographically for ease of travel, and European enough for the commercialism to be worth it ... as someone said, it's a lot easier to imagine fans making a trip to Germany than Georgia, and I fear sponsorships drying up if things changed...

Friday is only a few days off, so maybe all our speculation will turn out to be wrong! If the end result sees France winning, Scotland 2nd and Italy 3rd, by some unknown set of miraculous happenings, we'll all look pretty silly, eh?

 

[andysimcoe]

I think we Scottish fans can relate a bit more as there's a lot of similarities. It was not that long ago forums had members suggesting Scotland be binned.

Scotland and Italy didn't transition well to professional rugby and are much smaller than the likes of England and France, as far as union sizes go.

The six Nations was split, who will win and who will lose out of Scotland and Italy.

It isn't great when all 5 teams look at the Italy game as points in the bag. This year Scotland see it as an ideal warm up game for Ireland the following week. A speed bump if you will.

Though as others have mentioned 18 Benetton players are in the squad, and they're performing better. Glasgow have won the pro12, pro14 both Glasgow and Edinburgh have improved with the vast majority of the starting 15 from Glasgow.

Is this really the sign that Italy might start grabbing wins against the like of England at home in the next few years? I'd hope so but when you have Ireland, Wales and England taking 3 of the top 4 world ranking positions... It's easy to look crap.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I don't think geography plays that big a part if the nation is right. I, and I presume the 6n organisers as well, would take the USA into the tournament ahead of Georgia. It makes more sense economically and give me a Chicago, NY, Boston etc... trip ahead of Tblisi. They're at similar levels too.

 

[Dai Perk]

Hadn't even THOUGHT of the USA, that's pretty interesting... still not a cheap or easy bit of traveling, but if American finally get behind rugby (I'm literally the only person I know here who cares even a tiny bit), there'd obviously be lots of money to be made...

"Major League Rugby" just began its second season here, but again, I know nobody who is watching it besides me, and frankly, it's a pale shadow of leagues like the Pro14, the Premiership, and Super Rugby...

 

[andysimcoe]

Look at the numbers of fans travelling for the rugby championship, sure some Argentinian fans go to Australia or South Africa. But how many Georgia fans will come to the UK?

Sure a few thousand of us will travel to the US, it's a desirable location and not much longer on a plane than gerogia. But then you factor in timezones and again sponsorship opportunities.

You creep it so far, you're creating another world cup. Though obviously the pro14 expanded this way.

As a season ticket holder at Murrayfield it still surprises me the number of England fans that come up even though they expect an easy win. Obviously god god the queen is booed but swing low sweet chariot is almost as loud as the home fans.

Of course I did say this aspect is purely from my point of view and doesn't impact the possible expansion. It's just what I like so much about it. So it's a benefit but not a limiting factor I agree

 

[Dai Perk]

I may ask to crash on your couch one day so I can catch a game at Murrayfield, that's certainly on my bucket list!

 

[Leinster Fan]

I think this current Italy squad is decent. The problem is that the other countries (bar France) are all better than they were 10 years ago (Maybe not England but that's never been a winnable game for Italy). Scotland always gave them a decent chance of winning a game and Ireland, Wales and France were never beyond the realms of possibility either.

Italy have a decent team and O'Shea is doing an excellent job at developing rugby there, but it's probably not realistic for him to do that and coach the team as well. They should get a bounce from Benneton who have been consistently good for almost a full year now and are properly in the mix for the Pro14 playoffs and Heineken Cup qualification. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they beat France.

 

[Scotty]

How many of this italy team play for Benneton? They have the same number of professional teams as scotland, but for Italy to do well they have to get both of their teams doing well and have their own good academy systems, till then im not sure they ever will be anything more than 6th place contenders.

 

[andysimcoe]

I may ask to crash on your couch one day so I can catch a game at Murrayfield, that's certainly on my bucket list!

Ha, I'm sure that can happen. The harder bit will be getting a ticket. Gone are the days of buying them on the day etc which wasn't that long ago.

 

[Leinster Fan]

I haven't watched it but his videos are generally funny. Probably worth a watch if you want to find out more about Italy.

 

[Dai Perk]

Omg, that guy is hysterical, thanks for this! His text graphics go by way to fast to read, usually, but man oh man, that's funny!