Ireland's World Cup chances

[ckell]

After seeing the Ireland-NZ match, it got me wondering what Ireland's WC chances are. They are in a group with Australia, Italy, USA, and Russia and will face the winners/runners up of group D(South Africa,Wales,Samoa,Fiji,Namibia).
They played some good stuff at times but I'm not 100% sure that they can beat Aus/Sa down under and progress past the Quarter-Finals in 2011, although I do think the potential to do so is there. What do you guys think?

The November Internationals have been disappointing to say the least.
Game 1: L 21-23 vs South Africa. Ireland looked asleep for most of this one. A bad performance.
Game 2:W 20-10 vs Samoa. Absolutely awful stuff.
Game 3: L 18-38 vs New Zealand. An encouraging first half display but they looked fatigued in the 2nd half.

The Six Nations this year was also an average campaign compared to the Grand Slam winning season of 2009.
Italy(Home) W 29-11
Wales(Home) W 27-12
England(Away) W 20-16
France(Away) L 33-10
Scotland(Home) L 23-20

The first Six Nations defeat to Scotland since 2001 was the real disappontment of this campaign. This is a critical year for Irish rugby and improvements must be made between now and 2011.

 

[Feicarsinn]

A semi final is the best we can hope for. Beat one of Australia or South Africa and we should be able to do it. I have a funny feeling we'll take the Aussies in the group and should have enough to see off whoever comes out of the group of death in second. I expect a quarter final finish and would be delighted with anything above that.


That said, it would be bloody typical for us to lose to Italy.

 

[munstermuffin]

I think we at our lowest ebb now and will gradually improve again. Paul O Connell will be a major addition too

 

[IRFU]

The November Internationals have been disappointing to say the least.
Game 1: L 21-23 vs South Africa. Ireland looked asleep for most of this one. A bad performance.
Game 2:W 20-10 vs Samoa. Absolutely awful stuff.
Game 3: L 18-38 vs New Zealand. An encouraging first half display but they looked fatigued in the 2nd half.

It's very unlikely that they'll win but in the South Africa match Ireland played awful worse than the Samoa match up until last 15 minutes or so and managed to get back from 14 points down to 2 with O'Gara hitting the post with the conversion. Ireland aren't playing well at the Autumn Internationals and they have gone down to 7th in IRB Rankings because of them (Scotland our now 6th which I think is a bit disgraceful after their 49-3 loss to New Zealand and there was still another Two or three minutes to play when the Ref ended play, I think there could have been more points for New Zealand if I'm being honest.) but there is still just less than a year left before the world cup so they have plenty of time to improve, it's just whether or not they will.

 

[Teh Mite]

Roger Wilson confirms what we've all suspected;

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/my_club/northampton/9221434.stm

Northampton Saints' Irish forward Roger Wilson admits to disappointment at being overlooked by his national team.

The 29-year-old number eight, who has earned just one Ireland cap, against Japan in 2005, was left out of Declan Kidney's autumn internationals squad.

And the big Saints man told BBC Look East: "I am disappointed. Declan Kidney hasn't included too many players based over in England.

"I'd say 'Never say never' but it's likely I'm not going to be involved."

Wilson has made 69 appearances for Saints, scoring five tries, since his move from Ulster in 2008, which he hoped might have put him more in the spotlight for international recognition.

"It was one of the reasons why I moved over here," admits Wilson.

"I was finding it a bit stale back home. Things had come to a standstill. I thought that if I moved over, and if I was playing for top flight Premiership team, it would have pushed things on.

"But it seems to be a policy of the Ireland RFU that they're not going to pick players unless they're established, which makes things difficult.

"But I'm happy with the way it's going here. You just try to keep injury free and produce your best week in, week out."

--------------------------------------------------

In other words, Declan likes to pick his buddies and nuts to you if you're in competition with them!

 

[Feicarsinn]

Roger Wilson confirms what we've all suspected;

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/my_club/northampton/9221434.stm

Northampton Saints' Irish forward Roger Wilson admits to disappointment at being overlooked by his national team.

The 29-year-old number eight, who has earned just one Ireland cap, against Japan in 2005, was left out of Declan Kidney's autumn internationals squad.

And the big Saints man told BBC Look East: "I am disappointed. Declan Kidney hasn't included too many players based over in England.

"I'd say 'Never say never' but it's likely I'm not going to be involved."

Wilson has made 69 appearances for Saints, scoring five tries, since his move from Ulster in 2008, which he hoped might have put him more in the spotlight for international recognition.

"It was one of the reasons why I moved over here," admits Wilson.

"I was finding it a bit stale back home. Things had come to a standstill. I thought that if I moved over, and if I was playing for top flight Premiership team, it would have pushed things on.

"But it seems to be a policy of the Ireland RFU that they're not going to pick players unless they're established, which makes things difficult.

"But I'm happy with the way it's going here. You just try to keep injury free and produce your best week in, week out."

--------------------------------------------------

In other words, Declan likes to pick his buddies and nuts to you if you're in competition with them!

Wilson's main problem was he wasn't good enough. He can complain all he likes about being outside the system but he's a class behind Heaslip and Leamy. Always was.

 

[GalwayCanuck5]

Wilson's main problem was he wasn't good enough. He can complain all he likes about being outside the system but he's a class behind Heaslip and Leamy. Always was.

Heaslip is world class alright, he's guaranteed a starting place. Leamy is in great form at the moment and is an excellent player, but you can't say he's a class ahead of Wilson.

Wilson is consistently good for the Saints and should be rewarded with a place in the squad. He has improved enormously since leaving Ulster.

He is as good as Leamy if not better. If we had a less conservative head coach I'm pretty sure Wilson would be second choice behind Heaslip.

 

[Feicarsinn]

Heaslip is world class alright, he's guaranteed a starting place. Leamy is in great form at the moment and is an excellent player, but you can't say he's a class ahead of Wilson.

Wilson is consistently good for the Saints and should be rewarded with a place in the squad. He has improved enormously since leaving Ulster.

He is as good as Leamy if not better. If we had a less conservative head coach I'm pretty sure Wilson would be second choice behind Heaslip.

Look at it this way: On one hand you have Leamy, a player with buckets of international experience and is capable of playing anywhere across the back row. Then you have Wilson, playing abroad which means it's more difficult to get him away for internationals and is a specialist 8. Leamy is the most logical choice.

There are alot of good backrowers in Ireland. The likes of O'Brien, Wallace, Ferris, Jennings, D Ryan and John Muldoon have proven themselves to be up to international standard in the last year and there's plenty of young talent coming through. You've got to wonder where Wilson would fit in to a 30 man squad.


Speaking of Ulster 8's by the way, very sad to hear about Pollock's forced retirement at only 23.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I'd take Wilson over Leamy in a heartbeat,
Wouldn't get a lookin with Heaslip still around, but I'd definately have him as 2nd choice,
Shame he got the cap for Ireland, we could add him to our extensive back catalogue of Backrowers

 

[King_D'Arcy]

Pretty good chance of Ireland making the semis I reckon. Obviously odds are they won't but there's a decent chance. They certainly could beat Australia or South Africa.

 

[snoopy snoopy dog dog]

Tommy Bowe was a bit part international until he moved to Wales and is now an integral part of the team. Geordan Murphy has over 60 caps despite playing all his pro rugby in England. If a player who's based outside Ireland is good enough he'll be picked. Lots was made of Shane Jennings (while at Leicester), Mike Ross (while at Quins) and Bob Casey (at London Irish) being ignored by Eddie O'Sullivan and Declan Kidney. It's hard to escape the fact though that when Jennings and Ross moved to Leinster they initially struggled and Bob Casey has shown no mobility when he has been picked.

I'd take Wilson over Leamy in a heartbeat,
Wouldn't get a lookin with Heaslip still around, but I'd definately have him as 2nd choice,

Wilson looks good in the Premiership but as has been said, he's nowhere near as good as Heaslip. Aside from that, he's not as versatile as Leamy. I'd place Wilson as Ireland's 3rd choice number 8 and he deserved to be capped ahead of Chris Henry. Despite that, even had he stayed in Ireland, Wilson wouldn't have more than a handful of international caps.

.........................

On topic, Ireland need to embrace a running game and pick the right players to have any shot at a World Cup semi final. Persisting with the likes of Best, O'Callaghan and Wallace won't get us anywhere.

 

[munstermuffin]

Lads that is best joke I've heard in a long time an Ulster blow out who could never cut it over here in same class as Heaslip and Leamy.
Leamy is a superb 8 and even forgetting about his versatility he is an international class 8 and not too far behind heaslip.

Wilson is no more than a decent club player and wasting his time in releasing this statement

 

[coonor]

I think its taken Ireland longer than most other teams to embrace the new laws, probably due to them having such a successful year in 2009 when they played a brilliant but slightly old fashioned. Since then they have stuck to the 2009 tactic although the game has moved on but last week showed we play good modern rugby where we were competetive at the breakdown and now we know how to play well and hopefully we can build on this. Ireland has alot of potential but we still haven't found the right combonations and players. If we can sort out our set piece and get more possession I think we have alot of skill and good ball cariers to cause alot of damage. Our defence can also be good as seen in matches like against England in the 6 nations. So if we can build untill the world cup and reach some good form then I see us having no problem reaching the quater finals and even the semis and who knows after that.

 

[snoopy snoopy dog dog]

Wilson has made 69 appearances for Saints, scoring five tries, since his move from Ulster in 2008, which he hoped might have put him more in the spotlight for international recognition.

That's not a great try scoring record, is it? I thought it would be much higher than that. Compare Wilson's try scoring exploits to those of Denis Leamy who has 30 tries in 120 games for Munster and Heaslip's 25 tries in 119 games for Leinster.

 

[Teh Mite]

Ah, but Munster and Leinster don't have the likes of Ashton and Tonga'uiha taking all the scores though!

Seriously, 1 in 12 is hardly a terrible record for a number 8. It's his work around the pitch that lets others score which makes him an asset. God knows what people thought of him at Ulster, but he's been bloody brilliant in the past 2 years - Hense now being the regular starting 8 in arguably one of (if not the) strongest packs in Europe now.

That said, he's used to a very different style of rugby at club level to the Ronan'O'Kickathon which Kidney prefers to direct.

Meh, Irelands loss I'm happy to say is Saints' gain!

 

[Seaton]

Looking at it, Scotland and Ireland have very similair WC fates


Failure to finish top would result in playing a top class team, with little chance of winning

Whilst at the same time, a quarterfinal berth is far from assured, but Ireland obviously have a better chance vs. Italy.


Would like to see the Irish do well in a WC, for once.
On a seperate yet similair topic, will this tournament see the retirement of BOD?

 

[Peat]

Most of the Ulster fans I talk to reckon Wilson's been hard done by and woudn't be at all opposed to him coming home. He's certainly a good player playing to a good standard, but truth is he's in a position where Ireland can afford to ignore people.

I'm guessing the incident that triggered this mind was the Summer tour, massive injury list before hand and people dropping like flies throughout and nothing for Wilson. Form-wise and talent-wise he deserved to be there and wasn't. He's certainly got a point that Kidney is rather set in his mind - no caps for Fionn Carr for example, persisting with John Hayes over Mike Ross etc.etc.

Which brings me neatly to my next point - Ireland's scrum is pap and they are going to struggle to go anywhere while this is true. The Healy-Cronin/Best-Court front row has managed to look only a bit substandard, which is a massive step up yet I have a sneaking suspicision Tony Buckley might walk straight back in which is hilarious. Although given Ulster will only play Court at TH as third choice unless ordered to, maybe understandable. Incidentally, the scrum struggles may well mean that Best (the strongest scrummaging Irish hooker) will continue to be first choice when available and Flannery is not, which will lead to a gnashing of teeth.

Ireland could get a semi-final berth, but right now I think there's a lot of improvement to be done. I'd say fitness is supect, counter-attacking's not good enough, the scrum I've talked about, the backs look wooden and Kidney's selection processes are bamboozling at times. Mind you, I said the same about England last year, so...

 

[Teh Mite]

On a seperate yet similair topic, will this tournament see the retirement of BOD?

As a World Cup players it will be. He'll still be playing as he's likely to go off and draw a big pension with Stade next season.

 

[munstermuffin]

Ah, but Munster and Leinster don't have the likes of Ashton and Tonga'uiha taking all the scores though!

Seriously, 1 in 12 is hardly a terrible record for a number 8. It's his work around the pitch that lets others score which makes him an asset. God knows what people thought of him at Ulster, but he's been bloody brilliant in the past 2 years - Hense now being the regular starting 8 in arguably one of (if not the) strongest packs in Europe now.

That said, he's used to a very different style of rugby at club level to the Ronan'O'Kickathon which Kidney prefers to direct.

Meh, Irelands loss I'm happy to say is Saints' gain!

True Munster don't got that type of player or Leinster for that matter.
They just have mediocre lads in backs like Doug Howlett, Brian O Driscoll etc and they wouldn't have a decent forward unit over the years wit likes if Rocky Elsom etc.
That is just nonsense Bullitt what you are saying and well if you listened to yourself then maybe you'd see it nonsense. If Saints have more powerful unit and better attacking style then that means Wilson should have more tries than other 2.
And I hate this crap the way English people hype players up to quick. Ashton is good but I remember him in Thomond park last year and he struggled and showed he isn't there yet and I still believe despite a good AI series he isn't there yet. Armitage was been hyped as the best thing too the year Ireland won the grand slam yet now he can't make 22

 

[Teh Mite]

True Munster don't got that type of player or Leinster for that matter.
They just have mediocre lads in backs like Doug Howlett, Brian O Driscoll etc and they wouldn't have a decent forward unit over the years wit likes if Rocky Elsom etc.
That is just nonsense Bullitt what you are saying and well if you listened to yourself then maybe you'd see it nonsense. If Saints have more powerful unit and better attacking style then that means Wilson should have more tries than other 2.
And I hate this crap the way English people hype players up to quick. Ashton is good but I remember him in Thomond park last year and he struggled and showed he isn't there yet and I still believe despite a good AI series he isn't there yet. Armitage was been hyped as the best thing too the year Ireland won the grand slam yet now he can't make 22

Oh FFS get a sense of humour instead of being so precious.

PS: Ashton scored twice against Munster and Wilson played Leamy off the park at FG.