Oooh, the big one.
Right, my thoughts.
- From an Irish perspective:
--- The fitness of Ross and D'Arcy are crucial. It is quite obvious Keith Earls is simply not able to operate at this level. No shame in that, he's a good player, just not good enough.
--- If D'Arcy hadn't got injured, it is unlikely the move that led to Cuthbert's try would have worked out as it did, also Rory Best was
very harshly sin-binned.
--- Despite playing half the 2nd half with only 14 men, Ireland only conceded 3 tries against a Welsh team that was battering on the door with sledgehammers for 35 odd minutes. 1 of those tries I assign direct blame on poor defense from a substitute at centre.
--- It is interesting that Ireland largely lost the stats contest with Wales,
see here. I know I am sounding a bit like a broken record here... but I'd have Henry into 7 and SOB at 6. Ben Youngs lost the plot last season playing against Ulster at Ravenhill... a large part of that reason was slow ruck ball... due to Chris Henry. Slow English ruck ball down and their rather 1D attack (assuming Barrett/Tuilagi start - see below) will not have much space to work with.
--- Radge and Earls simply cannot be on the bench. They cannot be trusted to defend - imagine if BOD had got injured on Sat and ROG had to come on - we'd definitely have lost that game. IMO, the subs should be Ian Keatley and Luke Fitz - while the two men are probably not the absolute best backs in Ireland not in the first team (for instance, I'd prefer the Caveman at 13 over either or Trimble at 11/14 over either), they are very flexible in where they can play and are both good defenders.
- From an English perspective:
--- IMO, a midfield of Barrett and Tuilagi coupled with Farrell at 10 is too one-dimensional. The Irish defense largely withstood a Jamie Roberts/JJV Davies/George North/Alex Curthbert back line, with 14 men. Is it unreasonable to see that English midfield getting little joy trucking it up the middle?
--- A midfield of 36 and Tuilagi would offer much more invention on the ball, but you do have to fear for the old masters manipulating 36 out of position in defence.
--- While I have great faith in Craig Gilroy's kicking game, it was consistently 5 yards too long on Saturday, a possible target for aerial bombardment?
--- As hinted at above, quick ruck ball is crucial (as ever!), but even more so if you are unlikely to move the ball much beyond the 13 channel. The English kept the Scots at bay... but Kelly Brown, although a good big unit, is no Ross Rennie is no SOB/Chris Henry on the ground. Big game needed from Chris Robshaw, but so far, he has proven the doubters largely wrong.
I think the result will hinge on the fitness of Ross and D'Arcy - because if Ross isn't fit, our scrum is decimated and if D'Arcy isn't fit, either Radge will come into 10 or Earls* at 13, significantly weakening our team defensively (and offensively with Radge). Those two fit, Ireland by 1+. Either of them not fit, and England by 10+.
*Assuming Keet himself is actually fit.
