Sorry for delay...little computer problem.
Again sorry if I misunderstand you or have not been clear.........I am NOT talking about English or French "franchises" .......I do not think that the top French clubs will go bust as long as they continue to have the French TV money and/or corporate/personal sponsors and as long as they keep that finance, they will continue to attract the talent from all other leagues.
My suggested possible future is only based on the scenario that the salary cap in the AP is removed leading to a UK free for all which would damage the Rabo initially and the AP eventually with clubs not being able to compete with the French and English clubs who would have all the money and which no amount of spectator income will cover.
In this situation, the French top clubs such as ASM, Toulon, Toulouse, and Racing (together maybe Stade and Montpellier) will look around for clubs to play against as the rest of the Top 14 will fall away and the TV revenue will have to be protected. This will be in jeopardy if there is no sustainable oppostion and Leicester, Sarries and Saints will have a similar problem as the other AP clubs will not be able to compete moneywise and nor will the Irish and Welsh clubs......
In that scenario, the european league may just be the only future for the big clubs................
I can see the USA competing for players in the very long term but they are going to have to go through some years of grief ala the US soccer league and that has caused no appreicable challenge yet to europe in the market for the top players (other than Beckham who was in his early retirement stage when he went to LA for commercial rather then football reasons!)
As for the IRB or national bodies objecting.........tough! Money talks hence the reference to Packer!!
You will have to excuse my late reply, I just changed internet provider and there was a delay.
My comments were supposed to be aimed at everyone, but I understand and agree with what your saying. If they did remove the salary cap and open a 'free market' then a gap would open very quickly leaving only a handful of clubs able to compete. But again I can't see this happening. I know there have been poor decisions in the past but I couldn't see the clubs voting to abolish a cap, as,in reality, this would be financial suicide. But if it ever did, then what your suggesting is a real possibility.
Also, I should clarify that I don't think that the Eastern European leagues could rival the established big three in Europe but I think they will grow, especially if they are included in Europe and do well. I can see the next big spenders being the Americas. g Japan and France will still lead spending but if America back a league then we could see more movement across the Atlantic, maybe next ten plus years. Which could be worrisome, as I would never ever want to see rugby go the way football has. Ruined by money and very rich foreign investors who are more interested in selling shirts in Asia than grass root rugby, home grown players and the values of the sport.
We have seen real progress in rugby, look at previous world cups, were teams like Japan were regularly put to the sword. They now have a professional league and compete in the PNC, done well in the first Test against Wales and had a great RWC, and that is only one example.
However, here is food for thought. What is the future of the Italian domestic league? Could this league ever rise up to compete with the big three? Imagine what would happen to rugby in Italy if they reached a RWC QF, beat the All Blacks or won the 6 nations in the space of a few years? The market and infrastructure is there, and I don't believe that seeing Italy do any of these things is a stretch.
The second thought concerns Argentina. What do we know, for fact, about the development of a professional league there?
I know that they have recently fully contracted all domestic Argentina players with full professional contracts. But how far of can we expect a fully pro league. I believe it's not if but when.