HEC P5: Leinster v ASM Clermont Auvergne

[Draggs]

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Lansdowne Road - 14/12/2012 - 15:40
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[ZeFrenchy]

Clermont will be satisfied if they manage to keep the forst place of the pool. So, I predict a low-scoring match, with a score divisible by three for ASM.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Leinster by more than 7 but no BP. Similar enough to a couple years ago, I love these matches intensity is immense.

 

[big ginger 8]

Are teams separated by record against each other or tries scored first? If it's the latter Leinster would have to score 12 more tries than Clermont to get first place if I'm thinking right. Need a bonus point win this week I think not exactly an easy task.

 

[ZeFrenchy]

are teams separated by record against each other or tries scored first? If it's the latter leinster would have to score 12 more tries than clermont to get first place if i'm thinking right. Need a bonus point win this week i think not exactly an easy task.

if clubs are equal on points and the clubs are in the same pool, then qualification/ranking will be based on the two matches played between the clubs concerned:(a) the club which has earned the most number of match points from the two matches (four points for a win, two points for a draw and bonus points).
(b) the club which has scored the most tries in the two matches.
(c) the club with the best aggregate points difference from the two matches.

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[big ginger 8]

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Thanks bit more hope for topping the pool now still not huge.

 

[Bluemoon]

In fairness, the pressure is off Clermont a little in this game. It must have been a massive expectation factor in that there was a huge expectation to win at home. And it was a gruelling game. They will take a lot form that.

In saying that, Leinster need to win this. At home and in front of their crowd, I can only see a Leinster win. Leinster are always dangerous after a loss. It'll be more than 7 but I think a 4 try bonus is an unrealistic expectation.

Its going to be a cracker.

 

[Draggs]

An LBP for Clermont is vital. It will then come down to who can put four past Exeter (the Turks is a given).

 

[psychic duck]

An LBP for Clermont is vital. It will then come down to who can put four past Exeter (the Turks is a given).

Clermont have managed to edge a point or so ahead of Leinster thanks to try scoring bonuses in their first two matches. Leinster have been uncharacteristically blunt this season, just 1 try in 3 matches.

In previous seasons they have scored 4 tries at home against awkward sides such as Bath, Racing-Métro, Montpellier, Saracens, Glasgow. They'll be disappointed not to have gotten near at least one try bonus from their first two matches, and will be aiming to at least get one at home to Scarlets.

But this group does indeed look tight, Leinster will get big advantage if they can prevent Clermont getting a losing bonus point as then they will top the group if they finish on equal points, which is a big possibility.

 

[Draggs]

Clermont have managed to edge a point or so ahead of Leinster thanks to try scoring bonuses in their first two matches. Leinster have been uncharacteristically blunt this season, just 1 try in 3 matches.

In previous seasons they have scored 4 tries at home against awkward sides such as Bath, Racing-Métro, Montpellier, Saracens, Glasgow. They'll be disappointed not to have gotten near at least one try bonus from their first two matches, and will be aiming to at least get one at home to Scarlets.

But this group does indeed look tight, Leinster will get big advantage if they can prevent Clermont getting a losing bonus point as then they will top the group if they finish on equal points, which is a big possibility.

Yes, Clermont are currently leading, but three BP's from the last half of the pool stages would probably see them through as top pool seed (assuming they win the latter two matches).

 

[Jockstap]

Coming into the game last week, I thought Leinster were going to get destroyed based on form, injuries and last years semi. After watching the game on the weekend though, I think Leinster will get the try bonus point and deny Clermont. I was expecting ASM to be a lot better and based on that performance combined with the fact it's in Lansdowne Road where Leinster always put teams to the sword I think it could be a long day for the Frenchies.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Really?
I can't see Leinster scoring 4 tries based on the last round.
Then again, Leinster are one of the sides that can just flip a switch.

Sent from my HTC Incredible S using Tapatalk 2

 

[Amiga500]

I don't see a bonus point win either... Leinster looked pretty toothless despite having quite a bit of possession.

Defending well with a makeshift back unit is one thing, opening up when attacking is quite another.

 

[Jockstap]

Really?
I can't see Leinster scoring 4 tries based on the last round.
Then again, Leinster are one of the sides that can just flip a switch.

Sent from my HTC Incredible S using Tapatalk 2

I don't know, Clermont has to be the toughest place in Europe to get a win and I reckon Leinster could have won that game. I think with 40,000 fans cheering them on they'll have their best game of the season and I can't see Clermont living with them. Just a feelin.

 

[Amiga500]

I will qualify my earlier post... if Leinster are to win, I can really only see it coming through the ball carrying of the Heaslip-O'Brien-Healy triumvirate, not through the backs.

[Some change from a few years back and the ladyboys eh?]

 

[big ginger 8]

LEINSTER:
15: Ian Madigan
14: Fergus McFadden
13: Gordon D'Arcy
12: Andrew Goodman
11: Isa Nacewa
10: Jonathan Sexton
9: Eoin Reddan

1: Heinke van der Merwe
2: Richardt Strauss
3: Mike Ross
4: Leo Cullen CAPTAIN
5: Damian Browne
6: Sean O'Brien
7: Shane Jennings
8: Jamie Heaslip
REPLACEMENTS:
16: Sean Cronin
17: Cian Healy
18: Michael Bent
19: Devin Toner
20: Kevin McLaughlin
21: Isaac Boss
22: Andrew Conway
23: Dave Kearney
ASM CLERMONT AUVERGNE:
15: Lee Byrne
14: Sitiveni Sivivatu
13: Aurélien Rougerie CAPTAIN
12: Wesley Fofana
11: Napolioni Nalaga
10: Brock James / David Skrela
9: Morgan Parra
1: Raphael Chaume
2: Benjamin Kayser
3: Davit Zirakashvili
4: Jamie Cudmore
5: Nathan Hines
6: Julien Bonnaire
7: Julien Bardy
8: Damien Chouly
REPLACEMENTS:
16: Ti'i Paulo
17: Vincent Debaty
18: Daniel Kotze
19: Loic Jacquet
20: Alexandre Lapandry
21: Ludovic Radoslavjevic
22: David Skrela / Benson Stanley
23: Regan King

Interesting If used right Healy coming off the bench could be very good. Over 48000 tickets sold apparently not bad.

 

[Peat]

That feels like a really patchy Leinster team to me. Surprised they didn't start McLaughlin ahead of Jennings.

 

[Dougydeluxe]

Put my money on the Irish to win...

Should be a great game, wish it was on Sunday though

 

[big ginger 8]

That feels like a really patchy Leinster team to me. Surprised they didn't start McLaughlin ahead of Jennings.

It's closer to the "home" team. McLaughlin's been great but Jennings will help with the pace as he allows SO'B to do his thing at 6. Also helps at ruck time. Makes the lineout harder though.

 

[SelimNiai]

Have a feeling this one will be a classic. It better be.