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My first work experience I had to work alongside a TV repair guy who repeatedly sang "Once, twice, two times a lady". Absolutely did my head in.
Finally seeing some reporting on this in terms of estimates (the usually very slow, reactive reporting we have seen from day one in my opinion). I said hundreds of thousands of Chinese deaths conservatively as I didn't want to be alarmist. Estimates now around 2 million (which I think may also be conservative unless there is a newly dominant subvariant of Omicron that I'd far weaker than what Hong Kong experienced around March/April).So up here we finally, finally seem to be putting Omicron to bed thanks to Omicron specific boosters from Moderna for the over 50s.
Meanwhile, in China - 'strongman' gonna strongman.
China zero Covid: Violent protests in Guangzhou put curbs under strain
Anger boils over in the industrial city of Guangzhou, exposing cracks in Xi Jinping's signature policy.www.bbc.co.uk
Reportedly almost two thirds of the Chinese GDP is in areas now eligible for the Covid zero treatment. So the enigmatic idiot that is Xi must choose between literally destroying his already flagging economy OR accept he has got it wrong, relax restrictions and, because he has only permitted inferior domestic vaccines, potentially see fatality rates like we saw in Hong Kong back in spring. This would translate into many hundreds of thousands of deaths in mainland China, possibly millions if they have loads of elderly folk, which is not sure about given the cultural revolution in the 60s that managed to kill so many who would be elderly today had they lived.
Unless I'm missing some major advance China has made (or their vaccination rate is way beyond HK) then we are going to witness a potential catastrophe there in the coming months. One of the most technologically advanced nations on earth, the first to be exposed to the virus and the nation still a prisoner to Covid after even the third world has got it largely licked. Bloody tyrants!
And we think vaccine hesitancy was bad in the west as well. Without a mRNA vaccines toFinally seeing some reporting on this in terms of estimates (the usually very slow, reactive reporting we have seen from day one in my opinion). I said hundreds of thousands of Chinese deaths conservatively as I didn't want to be alarmist. Estimates now around 2 million (which I think may also be conservative unless there is a newly dominant subvariant of Omicron that I'd far weaker than what Hong Kong experienced around March/April).
How many people might die, and why, under relaxed China COVID curbs
China's abrupt end to its zero-COVID policy has raised concerns of widespread infections among a vulnerable, undervaccinated population with little natural immunity that would overload the health system and result in up to 2 million deaths, or more, various research groups are reporting.www.reuters.com
A vaccine was the only way to end the pandemic in a short (years) time frame rather than decades if you let the virus and people's immunites evolve naturally. However, as an observation hindsight also shows that lockdowns were effective too when combined with the vaccine. Britain could well have had less deaths by locking down more effectively and tbh I still feel the government got lucky that the vaccine were so effective so quickly. If they had taken longer to develop or needed more trial and error then Britain was screwed because the government had no plan outside of 'miracle vaccine cure'.And we think vaccine hesitancy was bad in the west as well. Without a mRNA vaccines to
Vaccinate the vulnerable groups within the 1.4billion population Xi has got China in an absolute bind of never ending lockdowns. Sad state of affairs of their own making. Unfortunately the Chinese worst attribute of "not losing face" at play.
A vaccine was the only way to end the pandemic in a short (years) time frame rather than decades if you let the virus and people's immunites evolve naturally. However, as an observation hindsight also shows that lockdowns were effective too when combined with the vaccine. Britain could well have had less deaths by locking down more effectively and tbh I still feel the government got lucky that the vaccine were so effective so quickly. If they had taken longer to develop or needed more trial and error then Britain was screwed because the government had no plan outside of 'miracle vaccine cure'.
True. I can imagine though that if there was a new outbreak like covid in the next 20 years Britain still wouldn't be prepared like the Asian nations were after SARS. Why spend money on something that might happen when you can hope it doesn't.Matt Hancock: I was warned 820,000 in UK could die from Covid
Ex-health secretary's diary recalls conversations in government before the UK went into lockdown.www.bbc.co.uk
Yes but 200k deaths later hindsight is a wonderful thing.
I am not sure where Hancock got his 820k figure I recall Imperial college London's estimate at the time was 500k deaths if we did not lock down in March which then spooked Bojo's government into action.
Also IIRC one of the eminent Scientists was saying if he got 20k deaths in 2020 it would be deemed a success.
We could have got a SK level of death rate had we been properly prepared and that level of testing, tracing. But we're not willing as a society to go to that level.
China - SMH at how they got to where they are now and their continued stubborn insistence of zero Covid.
I suspect right now they Pfizer and Moderna are already working on the vaccine for the next one based on mRNA tech ready to tweak more quickly than 2 years it took for this one. Money still to be made for the next big one.True. I can imagine though that if there was a new outbreak like covid in the next 20 years Britain still wouldn't be prepared like the Asian nations were after SARS. Why spend money on something that might happen when you can hope it doesn't.