[COVID-19] General Discussion

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

My first work experience I had to work alongside a TV repair guy who repeatedly sang "Once, twice, two times a lady". Absolutely did my head in.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

China’s Covid crisis demands terrible choices. The world will suffer if this goes wrong | Devi Sridhar

To reverse its zero-Covid policy risks loss of life, economic damage and the emergence of new variants, says Prof Devi Sridhar, Edinburgh University’s chair of global public health

www.theguardian.com

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

So up here we finally, finally seem to be putting Omicron to bed thanks to Omicron specific boosters from Moderna for the over 50s.

Meanwhile, in China - 'strongman' gonna strongman.

China zero Covid: Violent protests in Guangzhou put curbs under strain

Anger boils over in the industrial city of Guangzhou, exposing cracks in Xi Jinping's signature policy.

www.bbc.co.uk

Reportedly almost two thirds of the Chinese GDP is in areas now eligible for the Covid zero treatment. So the enigmatic idiot that is Xi must choose between literally destroying his already flagging economy OR accept he has got it wrong, relax restrictions and, because he has only permitted inferior domestic vaccines, potentially see fatality rates like we saw in Hong Kong back in spring. This would translate into many hundreds of thousands of deaths in mainland China, possibly millions if they have loads of elderly folk, which is not sure about given the cultural revolution in the 60s that managed to kill so many who would be elderly today had they lived.

Unless I'm missing some major advance China has made (or their vaccination rate is way beyond HK) then we are going to witness a potential catastrophe there in the coming months. One of the most technologically advanced nations on earth, the first to be exposed to the virus and the nation still a prisoner to Covid after even the third world has got it largely licked. Bloody tyrants!

Finally seeing some reporting on this in terms of estimates (the usually very slow, reactive reporting we have seen from day one in my opinion). I said hundreds of thousands of Chinese deaths conservatively as I didn't want to be alarmist. Estimates now around 2 million (which I think may also be conservative unless there is a newly dominant subvariant of Omicron that I'd far weaker than what Hong Kong experienced around March/April).

How many people might die, and why, under relaxed China COVID curbs

China's abrupt end to its zero-COVID policy has raised concerns of widespread infections among a vulnerable, undervaccinated population with little natural immunity that would overload the health system and result in up to 2 million deaths, or more, various research groups are reporting.

www.reuters.com

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Finally seeing some reporting on this in terms of estimates (the usually very slow, reactive reporting we have seen from day one in my opinion). I said hundreds of thousands of Chinese deaths conservatively as I didn't want to be alarmist. Estimates now around 2 million (which I think may also be conservative unless there is a newly dominant subvariant of Omicron that I'd far weaker than what Hong Kong experienced around March/April).

How many people might die, and why, under relaxed China COVID curbs

China's abrupt end to its zero-COVID policy has raised concerns of widespread infections among a vulnerable, undervaccinated population with little natural immunity that would overload the health system and result in up to 2 million deaths, or more, various research groups are reporting.

www.reuters.com

And we think vaccine hesitancy was bad in the west as well. Without a mRNA vaccines to
Vaccinate the vulnerable groups within the 1.4billion population Xi has got China in an absolute bind of never ending lockdowns. Sad state of affairs of their own making. Unfortunately the Chinese worst attribute of "not losing face" at play.

 

[Reiser99]

And we think vaccine hesitancy was bad in the west as well. Without a mRNA vaccines to
Vaccinate the vulnerable groups within the 1.4billion population Xi has got China in an absolute bind of never ending lockdowns. Sad state of affairs of their own making. Unfortunately the Chinese worst attribute of "not losing face" at play.

A vaccine was the only way to end the pandemic in a short (years) time frame rather than decades if you let the virus and people's immunites evolve naturally. However, as an observation hindsight also shows that lockdowns were effective too when combined with the vaccine. Britain could well have had less deaths by locking down more effectively and tbh I still feel the government got lucky that the vaccine were so effective so quickly. If they had taken longer to develop or needed more trial and error then Britain was screwed because the government had no plan outside of 'miracle vaccine cure'.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

A vaccine was the only way to end the pandemic in a short (years) time frame rather than decades if you let the virus and people's immunites evolve naturally. However, as an observation hindsight also shows that lockdowns were effective too when combined with the vaccine. Britain could well have had less deaths by locking down more effectively and tbh I still feel the government got lucky that the vaccine were so effective so quickly. If they had taken longer to develop or needed more trial and error then Britain was screwed because the government had no plan outside of 'miracle vaccine cure'.

Matt Hancock: I was warned 820,000 in UK could die from Covid

Ex-health secretary's diary recalls conversations in government before the UK went into lockdown.

www.bbc.co.uk

Yes but 200k deaths later hindsight is a wonderful thing.

I am not sure where Hancock got his 820k figure I recall Imperial college London's estimate at the time was 500k deaths if we did not lock down in March which then spooked Bojo's government into action.

Also IIRC one of the eminent Scientists was saying if he got 20k deaths in 2020 it would be deemed a success.

We could have got a SK level of death rate had we been properly prepared and that level of testing, tracing. But we're not willing as a society to go to that level.

China - SMH at how they got to where they are now and their continued stubborn insistence of zero Covid.

 

[Reiser99]

Matt Hancock: I was warned 820,000 in UK could die from Covid

Ex-health secretary's diary recalls conversations in government before the UK went into lockdown.

www.bbc.co.uk

Yes but 200k deaths later hindsight is a wonderful thing.

I am not sure where Hancock got his 820k figure I recall Imperial college London's estimate at the time was 500k deaths if we did not lock down in March which then spooked Bojo's government into action.

Also IIRC one of the eminent Scientists was saying if he got 20k deaths in 2020 it would be deemed a success.

We could have got a SK level of death rate had we been properly prepared and that level of testing, tracing. But we're not willing as a society to go to that level.

China - SMH at how they got to where they are now and their continued stubborn insistence of zero Covid.

True. I can imagine though that if there was a new outbreak like covid in the next 20 years Britain still wouldn't be prepared like the Asian nations were after SARS. Why spend money on something that might happen when you can hope it doesn't.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

True. I can imagine though that if there was a new outbreak like covid in the next 20 years Britain still wouldn't be prepared like the Asian nations were after SARS. Why spend money on something that might happen when you can hope it doesn't.

I suspect right now they Pfizer and Moderna are already working on the vaccine for the next one based on mRNA tech ready to tweak more quickly than 2 years it took for this one. Money still to be made for the next big one.

 

[The Seeker]

New COVID-19 Variant XBB Gaining Ground Among Americans

New omicron subvariant is taking hold in the United States, health officials say, though it does not look more severe than its predecessors

consumer.healthday.com

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I was at my GP at couple of weeks ago and asked if he had heard if the under 50s were due to have boosters. He confirmed he had not.

Pretty much confirmed that the rest of us not eligible is about catching it and building up immunity each time so that it is not as bad each time.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

China rolls back strict Covid rules after protests

Officials say asymptomatic and mild cases will no longer be forced into state quarantine centres.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Rumours China will move to permit the US mRNA vaccines rather than potentially consigning millions to death by removing restrictions on an unprotected populace in the height of winter. Apparently they permit a Pfizer oral remedy for use in emergencies so quite what the objection is to the vaccines is anyones guess.

There have been some complete muppets globally but Xi is taking the cake when it comes to arrogance, ' vaccine patriotism' and mismanagement. Anecdotal reports that many Chinese are so spooked by what is happening they are pretty much locking themselves down because it isn't safe for the vulnerable to go out due to the abject failure of the state.

China pushes vaccines as retreat from 'zero-COVID' turns messy

China raced to vaccinate its most vulnerable people in anticipation of waves of infections, with some analysts expecting the death toll to soar after Beijing eased strict controls.

www.reuters.com

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Number of people in hospital with Covid in England rises 22% in a week

Figure rises from 5,501 people on 7 December to 6,720 on 14 December, according to NHS data

www.theguardian.com

And over here.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Shanghai schools to go online as Covid spreads in China

The easing of strict lockdown measures has led to growing concerns over the spread of Covid in China.

www.bbc.co.uk

Not surprising really once they removed restrictions.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

The Times reporting estimates of 1m deaths in China from them reversing zero Covid policy.

US state dept. expressing concern that this will also give the virus a chance to mutate and posing a new threat for it to spread worldwide. A large wave necessary for China to get to endemic state and stop future lockdowns.

China rushes to boost intensive care beds, doctors and stocks of medicine as Covid surges

State media reports on increased efforts to boost health infrastructure, staffing and supplies

www.theguardian.com

This sadly isn't over yet, if it does mutate and spreads worldwide.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I'm not worried about mutation. I predicted here at the start of Omicron that it was very unlikely we'd see something replace Omicron this year and I've not read anything to convince me to change the opinion that Omicron is going to be very stubborn and able to out-compete rival variants (new or old).

Meanwhile, more utter madness. Pfizer jags going to China but only permitted for use on German ex-pats. In return lucky Chinese citizens in Germany can choose to receive the crappy Chinese vaccine (I don't know if they are forbidden foreign vaccines even if abroad).

First foreign COVID vaccines head to China from Germany

Berlin has sent its first batch of BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines to China to be administered initially to German expatriates, a German government spokesperson said on Wednesday, the first foreign coronavirus vaccine to be delivered to the country.

www.reuters.com

China also confirmed as not classifying deaths or cases accurately. It'll be interesting if the impending catastrophe (be it financial or death rate) hits outside media. I'm surprised the protests did. Xi is such an enigma I almost wonder if he is happy for the country to burn as punishment for them protesting. The man is a fruit loop and I don't think even his own politburo have a clue what his motivations are on many things. Let along us foreigners.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Xi says no deaths on Wednesday but independent analysis is indicating 5k deaths per day and rising. Who to believe?

China COVID deaths probably running above 5,000 per day - UK research firm Airfinity

More than 5,000 people are probably dying each day from COVID-19 in China, health data firm Airfinity estimated, offering a dramatic contrast to official data from Beijing on the country's current outbreak.

www.reuters.com

Here is a quote from a Shanghai private hospital social media account that was quickly taken down.

"In this tragic battle, the entire Greater Shanghai will fall, and we will infect all the staff of the hospital! We will infect the whole family! Our patients will all be infected! We have no choice, and we cannot escape."

Shanghai hospital warns of 'tragic battle' as COVID spreads

The hospital expects half of the city's 25 million people will get infected by the end of next week, as the virus sweeps through China unchecked.

www.reuters.com

I wish I'd been horribly wrong on this one.

As an aside, no news on this on the front page of the BBC website or even on the front page of their World News page. They are running some articles but most of the media still hasn't grasped that 1-3 million deaths in one country in one winter is absolutely on the cards.

 

[Gavin]

Tested positive on Christmas Eve, after making 3 beef wellingtons to take to my parents on Christmas Day.

Looks like I'll eat well on my own

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Will be doing an antigen tomorrow. Quite nervous, have been out and about and really don't want to miss this Christmas.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Yeh caught a cold this week, but tested twice and both came back negative. Symptoms were also not like when I caught it back in June, which really was like a bad flu plus burning throat.