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[COVID-19] General Discussion

Gavin said:
Hope to god there isn't a spike in England and the need to close down again.

I have already booked my flights and hotel for a stag in Bristol in early July
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There is talk of bringing everyone's second jab forward. The NHS is still doing over half a million jabs a day.
 
Tallshort said:
There is talk of bringing everyone's second jab forward. The NHS is still doing over half a million jabs a day.
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Ironic when the propaganda campaign is telling us what a great level of protection one shot offers. If this is true, why the need for a change of strategy? I did read a week or two ago that evidence is mounting that one dose of Pfizer offers nowhere near the protection against B117 than PHE would have us believe. I'm struggling to see why the UK vaccination programme is being lauded so widely when the data differs from Israel's so massively. Our infection rates are rising already with further unlocking coming on Monday where as Israel's are dropping week on week despite their economy being pretty much fully open.
 
Israel's population is 9 million to our 66.6 million with 65% vaccinated against our 55%.

Reality is ours is considered a success is were by population the 2nd highest vaccinated country in the world. I'm unsure how we don't consider that a success.
 


Didn't realize Australia has closed its borders for rest of 2021 and likely remain until mid 2022.
 
ncurd said:
Israel's population is 9 million to our 66.6 million with 65% vaccinated against our 55%.

Reality is ours is considered a success is were by population the 2nd highest vaccinated country in the world. I'm unsure how we don't consider that a success.
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Why is population relevant? I understand why population density is, but surely it's reasonable to expect provision of healthcare to scale with population.

We appear to have different views of what constitutes a success. To me, vaccinating 100% of the population would be meaningless if it didn't deliver the return to normality that we've been told that it will. The deliverable to assess success or failure against is the effect that the vaccinations that have taken place have. As I say, thus far, the difference in the data from Israel and the UK is mind blowing.
 
ncurd said:
Israel's population is 9 million to our 66.6 million with 65% vaccinated against our 55%.

Reality is ours is considered a success is were by population the 2nd highest vaccinated country in the world. I'm unsure how we don't consider that a success.
Click to expand...

And Israel's stats are where they have received both doses. UK is approaching 30% where both have been received.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard
coronavirus.data.gov.uk coronavirus.data.gov.uk
 
ncurd said:
Sigh, we always knew this would be the case just have to hope due to vaccine ot won't be a complete disaster like the other 3 times.
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ST reporting at least 20,000 potentially infected people were let in before India was put on the red list, even when Pakistan and Bangladesh were on there.

Bojo reportedly didn't want to "offend" Modi because he was going over to India to discuss a trade deal before he cancelled.

So racing to get as many people now to get vaccinated and wait fo see if that is enough to stop transmission.

If it turns out to be 40% or more transmissible than the B117 or Kent variant hospital transmissions could substantially rise, especially in those who haven't been vaccinated or whom the vaccine hasn't worked.

Just never seems to learn and behind the curve. The members on the SAGE committee must be tearing their hair out.
 
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The_Blindside said:
ST reporting at least 20,000 potentially infected people were let in before India was put on the red list, even when Pakistan and Bangladesh were on there.

So racing to get as many people now to get vaccinated and wait fo see if that is enough to stop transmission.

If it turns out to be 40% or more transmissible than the B117 or Kent variant hospital transmissions could substantially rise, especially in those who haven't been vaccinated or whom the vaccine hasn't worked.

Just never seems to learn and behind the curve. The members on the SAGE committee must be tearing their hair out.
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PI-M-O is the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling (Operational) - the modelling subcommittee of SAGE
Summary
1. SPI-M-O's best estimate for R in England is between 0.8 and 1.1. R is estimated to be between 0.8 and 1.0 for Scotland, 0.7 and 1.0 for Wales, and 0.8 and 1.1 for Northern Ireland. These estimates are based on the data available up to 10th May, including hospitalisations and deaths as well as symptomatic testing and prevalence studies.
2. Overall, the epidemic in England could be either flat, shrinking slowly, or growing slightly. There are local areas in all nations where the epidemic is increasing and some localities, such as parts of the North West and Bedford, have fast growth of S-gene positive variants that is concerning. This includes the B.1.617.2 variant.
3. Clusters of such new variants mean it is becoming more difficult to interpret R estimates as they are averages over populations, viral variants and areas. Situations could change quickly, especially as restrictions are relaxed further from 17th May.
4. SPI-M-O estimates that there are between 1,000 and 7,000 new infections per day in England.
5. The number and proportion of cases that are S-gene positive continues to increase and this is highly heterogeneous across regions and ethnicities. SPI-M-O is confident that B.1.617.2 is more transmissible than B.1.1.7, and it is a realistic possibility that this new variant of concern could be 50% more transmissible. If B.1.617.2 does have such a large transmission advantage, it is a realistic possibility that progressing with all Roadmap steps would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations.
6. SPI-M-O has also considered the merits of surge vaccination. While the impact of such a programme is uncertain, from a non-operational epidemiological perspective alone, it has a large potential upside and relatively small potential drawbacks with regard to transmission.
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It looks likely that the bulk of the UK's B.1.617.2 variant travelled in during the 4 days warning when everyone was rushing home to beat the quarantine requirement - which I'm sure, absolutely nobody could have predicted, especially not if they'd had access to the hindsight that the same has happened literally every single time any government has said "we'll be doing X, but in N days"


As an aside - when did B.1.1.7 start being referred to as the Kent variant - TRF is the only place I've seen that terminology seemingly used as standard - most of my internet bubble use "UK variant/strain" or "B 117" when we're trying not to stir up racial resentments.
 
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Which Tyler said:
PI-M-O is the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling (Operational) - the modelling subcommittee of SAGE


It looks likely that the bulk of the UK's B.1.617.2 variant travelled in during the 4 days warning when everyone was rushing home to beat the quarantine requirement - which I'm sure, absolutely nobody could have predicted, especially not if they'd had access to the hindsight that the same has happened literally every single time any government has said "we'll be doing X, but in N days"


As an aside - when did B.1.1.7 start being referred to as the Kent variant - TRF is the only place I've seen that terminology seemingly used as standard - most of my internet bubble use "UK variant/strain" or "B 117" when we're trying not to stir up racial resentments.
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en.m.wikipedia.org

SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

Maybe because I still remember when infections started rising more quickly in Kent last September. So still refer to it as Kent variant.

That is sad about your Bangladeshi neighbours and ignorant attitudes to them when they are blameless.

www.bbc.co.uk

Lockdown easing: Scientists tell us what they will (and won't) be doing

How will scientists use their new-found freedoms when Covid restrictions are eased on Monday?
www.bbc.co.uk
 
www.bbc.co.uk

India variant: Why was India not put on the red list sooner?

India was put on the travel ban list two weeks after Pakistan and Bangladesh.
www.bbc.co.uk

www.bbc.co.uk

Covid: Increasing confidence jabs work against Indian variant

There is "increasing confidence" Covid vaccines are effective against the variant, Matt Hancock says.
www.bbc.co.uk

Bottom line when things open up tomorrow: think twice about lingering for hours in a crowded room that has little fresh air, especially if you haven't been fully vaccinated yet and 7-14 days from second jab.
 
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Gavin said:
Hope to god there isn't a spike in England and the need to close down again.

I have already booked my flights and hotel for a stag in Bristol in early July
Click to expand...
Presumably you realised you were accepting the possibility of that happening when you booked.

I've just seen an interesting graph that relates to this, displaying the time it will take to get back to mid January levels based on different doubling times. Obviously we don't know what effect B.1.617's advantages or the vaccine rollout will have, but you need to hope that it leads to a doubling time of > 14 days - 14 days would see us hitting mid January rates just as you're planning to arrive!
 
So usual post vaccine debrief,

Got Pfizer about 6pm on Sat, started developing sore arm just before sleeping. Ran the HM on Sunday but experienced greater than normal fatigue with 5 miles to go, no noticeable difference in time but I wasn't running flat out and never planned to. That pretty much left me way more fatigued than a I normally am during the day, experiencing higher than normal joint pain and a mile head ache. Feeling pretty much like normal this morning.
 
Doctor on the news this morning was saying that most cases of the Indian variant is in the under45s (i.e. the non vaccinated)

Bringing second jabs forward at the expense of vaccinating more younger people seems a strange choice in light of that
 
_117090392_over-ordering_vaccine_2x640-nc.png
 
TRF_Olyy said:
Doctor on the news this morning was saying that most cases of the Indian variant is in the under45s (i.e. the non vaccinated)

Bringing second jabs forward at the expense of vaccinating more younger people seems a strange choice in light of that
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What the age group of people who mainly have to go to physical places of work and see far more member of the general public are more likely to have the virus currently? Quelle Surprise

Always said once highest priority groups were done it should been base of risk of occupation.
 

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