Autumn Internationals

[Zed]

Here are my predictions, winners in red.

Eng vs Fiji
Eng vs Aus
Eng vs SA (draw)
Eng vs NZ

Ire vs SA
Ire vs Arg


Scot vs Nz
Scot vs SA
Scot vs Tonga

Wales vs Arg
Wales vs Samoa
Wales vs NZ
Wales vs Aust

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I wouldn't be surprised if SA managed to beat England but lose to Scotland.

 

[Zed]

I wouldn't be surprised if SA managed to beat England but lose to Scotland.

Ha ha yeah it all depends on the weather - if it ****** it down Scotland could win.

 

[TRF_heineken]

I wouldn't be surprised if SA managed to beat England but lose to Scotland.

I wouldn't be surprized if we lost all our matches as it will be experimentation time for our team once more.

that being said, I wouldn't be surprized if we win by more than 30 each game also...

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Ha ha yeah it all depends on the weather - if it ****** it down Scotland could win.

And chances are it will be ******* heavily LOL. With Morne Steyn kicking at 30%.. we are in for a 15-9 loss.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I wouldn't be surprized if we lost all our matches as it will be experimentation time for our team once more.

that being said, I wouldn't be surprized if we win by more than 30 each game also...

I don't know what to expect from HM. He seems very unwilling to experiment and will he drop Steyn, JdP, JdV, Spies, Kirchner? Possibly but not all at the same time if I know our national coach.

 

[j'nuh]

Expecting another series where we do well enough to be "positive about the recovery" but ultimately feeling deflated at what could have been if certain selections were made. Excited anyway. Here's to hoping we play with two wingers.

 

[welshglory]

It's gonna be tough for Wales.

With the teams we've got lined up we can't afford to experiment imo, especially with the world cup seedings on the line, maybe we can blood 1 or 2 youngsters for experience. The WRU haven't made it easy on Howley or the regions at all. Against either Fiji or Argentina we should probably start some bench players.

Also player availability will be a struggle against Australia. Jenkins for example definitely won't be released so i'd play him in all the other 3 games, maybe start James against Samoa for his scrummaging.

England on the other hand who've got 4 games like us will definitely experiment against Fiji, they are pretty poor these days.

 

[dullonien]

Two wins is an absolute minimum for Wales. Three wins should be the realistic target.

Another opportunity to beat Aus, and we had better take it this time. We might be without one or two French based players (not sure about English based players either tbh, PRL usually kick up a fuss), but we should still put out a team capable of winning. I'd expect us to beat Argentina, although their recent experience in the Rugby Championship will mean they will be stronger than the last time we played them.

I think we'll see our strongest side put out against Argentina, something like: Jenkins, Owens, A-Jones, Evans, A-W-Jones, Lydiate, Warburton, R-Jones, Phillips, Hook/Priestland, North, Roberts, Davies, Cuthbert, Halfpenny. Jones over Faletau, I simply can't leave Jones out. Not sure who to pick at 10, probably Hook, but wouldn't be surprised if the management stick with Priestland for the first game.

Against Samoa I can see a few changes being made, something like: James, Rees, A-Jones, Charteris, A-W-Jones, Lydiate, Tipuric, Faletau, Ll-Williams, Hook/Priestland, North, Beck, Roberts/Davies, Halfpenny, L-Williams. I would like to see another tightead prop tested, but it looks like Mitchell will miss the AI's, and I'm not sure anyone else is ready yet (Rhodri Jones is a looshead now, Lee and Rees aren't ready). I wouldn't be surprised to see Warburton play all four games, but Tipuric deserves a chance. There could be an option of playing both, the Blues have shown that there is merit to this. I want to see Beck given another shot at 12, it could be worth seeing how Roberts goes at 13 outside him (still not totally convinced with Davies, despite being a very good player, he can be selfish and a little erratic at times). I want to see more of Liam Williams for Wales, but Halfpenny needs to be playing for his kicking, so Halfpenny would switch to wing for me.

Pick the best performers from those two to play NZ. See who isn't available against Aus (Jenkins, Hook, Phillips all possibly absent). This is the game where picking both Warburton and Tipuric could be a good idea. Beat Aus at the breakdown and you take away from them their biggest threat, quick ball. But who do you leave out of the backrow, Lydiate, R-Jones or Faletau? I'm glad we've got Gatland back at the helm for these two games.

 

[welshglory]

Yea tighthead will be an issue. I suspect it will be Jones starting and James covering. If we're scraping the barrel though Jarvis and Eifion Roberts (Playing predominantly as a loosehead now though) could be considered

Your Samoa team seems pretty good.
My changes would be

Perhaps we should think about resting Adam, although he could do with the game time so maybe playing him in 4 games straight wouldn't be so bad.
I was thinking Bradley should start against Samoa for his abrasiveness.
Maybe Aaron Shingler should start against Samoa or Argentina? Or should we have him on the bench for impact?
I was thinking of Faletau starting against Argentina for his pace and Ryan starting against Samoa for his technical nous.
I would drop Lloyd Williams out of the squad at the moment to be honest, he hasn't been playing well for the Blues for a year and it's questionable whether he is the first choice WQ 9 there, by then he could be starring in the HC though. I'd like to see Gareth Davies of the Scarlets drafted in, he's a classic type of 9 with a good pass and a balanced game, perfect foil to Phillips and unlike all the other 9's we have in the squad, good form as well.
I'd be tempted to give Brew a shot and rest North against Samoa.
I'd have Cuthbert on the right wing if Hook was starting.

 

[dullonien]

Yea tighthead will be an issue. I suspect it will be Jones starting and James covering. If we're scraping the barrel though Jarvis and Eifion Roberts (Playing predominantly as a loosehead now though) could be considered

Your Samoa team seems pretty good.
My changes would be

Perhaps we should think about resting Adam, although he could do with the game time so maybe playing him in 4 games straight wouldn't be so bad.
I was thinking Bradley should start against Samoa for his abrasiveness.
Maybe Aaron Shingler should start against Samoa or Argentina? Or should we have him on the bench for impact?
I was thinking of Faletau starting against Argentina for his pace and Ryan starting against Samoa for his technical nous.
I would drop Lloyd Williams out of the squad at the moment to be honest, he hasn't been playing well for the Blues for a year and it's questionable whether he is the first choice WQ 9 there, by then he could be starring in the HC though. I'd like to see Gareth Davies of the Scarlets drafted in, he's a classic type of 9 with a good pass and a balanced game, perfect foil to Phillips and unlike all the other 9's we have in the squad, good form as well.
I'd be tempted to give Brew a shot and rest North against Samoa.
I'd have Cuthbert on the right wing if Hook was starting.

Agree with some of that.

- Agree re Jones. It's be nice to rest him, but I'm not sure we've got that luxury. As you said, he's been out with an injury, so might need gametime so he's at his best v NZ and Aus.
- I personally don't think Bradley is playing very well. He seems slow and ineffective carrying the ball (one of his biggest strengths when he burst onto the scene a few years ago), and as such doesn't offer a huge amount to the team. He's not a great lineout option (front only), and he can give away a lot of silly penalties. Charteris was excellent for us at the WC, whilst Alun-Wyn Jones is playing well, and possible should play all four.
- Aaron Shingler should definitely feature at some stage. I'm just not sure when. Lydiate is our first choice 6, although Jones is pushing him mighty close. There's also the possible experiment of playing Warbs at 6 with Tips at 7 (or maybe Warbs at 8?). I think Shingler would add great impact off the bench if there's room for him (having Tips on the bench is a must imo). His pace could be effective against Aus though. Too many options in the backrow, I'll leave these decisions to the management.
- Sounds good re Faletau and Ryan. Faletau isn't playing at his best at the moment though. He's still doing a lot of work, but hasn't been putting in his barnstorming runs of his. I hope he hasn't been bulking up too much.
- I'm undecided about Lloyd Williams. His early form this season is much improved for the Blues, although a few of his passes are still going a little astray. But I'm also not sure about the other options. Webb should be nowhere near the squad on current form, whilst Gareth Davies is struggling to get gametime at the Scarlets with Knoyle back in form. If Knoyle can continue with his current form, he's probably the next best option. We'll have to wait a little longer to see what happens at the regions.
- Still not sure about Brew. He's going well in France by all accounts, and maybe that will help him to make the step-up he's been unable to do in the past. But for the minute I'd prefer to keep Cuthbert on one wing and move Halfpenny to the other with Liam Williams coming in at fullback if we want to give North a rest. Only problem might be that Cuthbert and Halfpenny predominantly play at 14, although I'm fairly sure both can play both sides.

 

[welshglory]

Good discussion, we'll have to see what happens at the regions as we get closer.

Knoyle was pretty poor against the O's and he's a bit too similar to Phillips and Webb for my liking. But as you say there aren't really any 9's in blistering form.

Cuthbert played quite a lot on the left wing last year so i would expect him to play there if Halfpenny was on the wing.

 

[psychic duck]

The strength of the team to play Samoa would depend a lot on which Samoa team they get available.

If they manage to get a team the same strength of the side they had at the World Cup (which ran an on form and full strength Wales very close), then Wales may have to play the best team or very near to it as a loss to either Samoa or Argentina ruins any chance of getting to 4th in the rankings.

However the Pacific Islanders are very unreliable at getting their best team available, so if it is more like the Samoa side that toured Europe in 2009 (http://www.espnscrum.com/statsguru/rugby/match/96501.html) then Wales can afford to give a few second string players a match.

By the way, Knoyle is better than Webb. I'm not saying that I rate Knoyle as a world beater, just he is better than Webb.

 

[welshglory]

Good point about Samoa. Their other problem will be even if they do get the best players, they'll have significantly less time to train and prepare together than us.

I don't really rate Knoyle, Webb or Lloyd Williams to honest at the moment in their respective careers.
Phillips is the clear first choice by a mile and deservedly so, i would prefer to have someone on the bench who can up the tempo and has a really fast snappy pass.