As things stand

[An Tarbh]

So obviously Munster will top pool 1 but Clermont can only get to 18 so that more than likely rules them out.

Pool 2 with Leinster and Wasps slugging it out. BP win for Leinster and they're guaranteed the pool, 4 points for Leinster and 4 points for Wasps also sees Leinster top the pool, so either way both sides should go through be they on 20 or 21 points.

Pool 3 sees Quins already through and Paris and Ulster both with no chance of getting the runner up spot.

Pool 4 with Leicester and the Ospreys, if Leicester's away form continues we should have the Ospreys going through on match points difference ahead of Leicester who'll be waiting anxiously for the result from the Rec

Pool 5 has Bath in the driving seat and they'll secure a home quarter final with a win against Toulouse. A Toulouse win will see them through while a bonus point will see them tie with Leicester/Leinster/Wasps on 20 points so it'll all come down to tries scored which puts Leicester in poll position while Leinster have the slight edge over Bath who in turn have the advantage over Wasps. Stop me if this is getting too complicated.

Pool 6 is rather simpler with the Blues on course for 27 points while Gloucester can only get to 19 so realistically their hopes are dead and buried.

So having said all that, here's one of the possible scenarios.

Cardiff Blues v Leicester
Munster v Leinster
Bath v Ospreys
Quins v Wasps

 

[MunsterMan]

If Wasp get 5 in Castres, Leinster could purposely avoid scoring 4 tries against Edinburgh, and therefore avoid a qf in Thomond..... Plenty of possibilities.

 

[An Tarbh]

it's ridiculous the amount of scenarios you can pluck from the air but the one where Munster play Leinster is only in the event that Leinster finish second.

A home quarter final is still on for Leinster if they get the bp win and Quins only get 4 points against the Scarlets, which given the way this weekend went isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

 

[dullonien]

Cheers Tarbh, great round-up there. Tough matches all round as it always is come 1/4 final, but if the O's get Bath, I'd be very happy. Cardiff Blues will struggle against their bogey team of Leicester, but are in great form and at home.

Could be a good year for Welsh regions.

 

[An Tarbh]

was wrong about Gloucester being dead and burried, a bp win would get them to 20 putting them in with a proper chance of getting a runner up spot. Still though only Paris have managed to come away from Biarritz with a bp this year, so massive ask.

 

[shazbooger]

Pretty much bang on as I see it.

If Leinster do get the four points, and manage to still top the group, what are the chances of us playing Munster?
Edit : Sorry just read above ....... so if we finish second then were fooked. Grand. Were fooked then.

That, i dont mind saying, is a match I would love to avoid.

 

[Stillknox]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (An Tarbh @ Jan 18 2009, 10:05 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

was wrong about Gloucester being dead and burried, a bp win would get them to 20 putting them in with a proper chance of getting a runner up spot. Still though only Paris have managed to come away from Biarritz with a bp this year, so massive ask.[/b]

If Biarritz decide to put the A-Team this could be difficult. They are the typical 'wounded animal team' at the moment: very proud (especially at home) and they need victories and confidence. Except them and Paris every french team had a glory moment in this Heineken Cup, so they will probably want to mark the occasion too. Their game is improving since a few weeks but it's still a very average team... Gloucester surely can win out there, but the BP will be hard to catch.

But maybe they will focus more on the home game against Toulouse the following week... well, I can't remember a year where the 'runner up rush' was so close. Lots of scenarios are possible, even the craziest one. (Clermont finally in the knockout stages... but they'll need a miracle for it)

 

[An Tarbh]

Interesting to see the predictions from the Rugby Club.

Starting with Barnes.

Cardiff Blues v Gloucester
Munster v Ospreys
Bath v Harlequins
Leicester v Wasps.

Morris has gone for the following,

Cardiff Blues v Wasps
Bath v Ospreys
Munster v Leinster
Leicester v Harlequins

while Greenwood has gone for,

Cardiff Blues v Bath
Munster v Ospreys
Toulouse v Harlequins
Leicester v Leinster

some interesting predictions but methinks Barnes hasn't seen the Edinburgh side that's travelling to Dublin.

 

[shtove]

Thanks for the thread, Tarbh.

Shocking nonsense from the French. What the fewk are they up to?

Apart from that, every one of those matches is mouth watering, with some ripe derbies - and Leicester v Wasps as well!

But there's one above all that cannot be missed. Buwahahahahahaaa .... you little Leinster bunny!

 

[shazbooger]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (An Tarbh @ Jan 22 2009, 07:33 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

some interesting predictions but methinks Barnes hasn't seen the Edinburgh side that's travelling to Dublin.[/b]

How so? Whats the news on that front?

 

[QLD]

COME ON LEINSTER

 

[MunsterMan]

I think we are looking at:

Cardiff 27
Munster 22
Quins 22
Toulouse 22
Leicester 21
Leinster 21
Ospreys 20
Bath 20

Cardiff - Bath
Munster - Ospreys
Quins - Leinster
Toulouse - Leicester

Those are my predictions, although you will probably find they are all wrong Munster-Leinster Final

 

[An Tarbh]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (MunsterMan @ Jan 25 2009, 01:10 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

I think we are looking at:

Cardiff 27
Munster 22
Quins 22
Toulouse 22
Leicester 21
Leinster 21
Ospreys 20
Bath 20

Cardiff - Bath
Munster - Ospreys
Quins - Leinster
Toulouse - Leicester

Those are my predictions, although you will probably find they are all wrong Munster-Leinster Final [/b]

that would be awesome indeed but you'll forgive me if I'm a bit pedantic for a moment, do you really not think that Leinster will get the 9 tries that would be enough to see them overtake Leicester???

I would take Quins, definitely winnable, obviously we could get stuffed as well but the most likely outcome for Leinster should we get the job done tomorrow is away to Bath or Quins, either of which we're capable of winning if, and it's always a big if with Leinster, if we show up.

If we only get the win, we're relying on Bath to beat Toulouse in which case we should be alright but given the strength of the Edinburgh side we should be looking at getting the bp win.