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All Blacks Watch - Countdown to June
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<blockquote data-quote="Darwin" data-source="post: 567087" data-attributes="member: 24910"><p>Overall a very good summary of where we are at. The only thing I don't agree with is the forward: backs ratio you have suggested in the squad (15 forwards :15 backs). Traditionally in a 30-man squad you would have a 16:14 split or a 17:13 split. I assume we will see 8-man benches used for the June tests - if so I personally would be in favour of a 17:13 split.</p><p></p><p><em>My $0.0165 AUD:</em></p><p></p><p><strong>Props: </strong>I would be surprised if there were not 5 props selected - we opted for 5 last season even before we needed 2 on the bench. Woodcock and Owen Franks are certainties (as you suggest), and assuming Afeaki gets back to full fitness soon he too is almost a certainty. The next best two props in the country are Ben Franks and Wyatt Crockett so I expect them to be included.</p><p></p><p><strong>Hookers: </strong>I reckon the AB's will stick with the two old hookers as you suggest. If Coles had not been injured he could have pushed a lot harder for selection. Elliot </p><p>is out of favour with the Chiefs coaches (and the Hawke's Bay coaches.... and the All Blacks coaches), while none of the younger hookers (Marshall, Funnell, Coltman etc) have had near enough experience. Cory Flynn has played consistently well for the Crusaders and it wouldn't actually surprise me if he was considered if either Hore or Mealamu got injured.</p><p></p><p><strong><strong>Locks: </strong></strong>Agree entirely with your analysis - it is either Williams for the 4th locking spot or no-one. Personally I would opt for no-one, but I suspect the AB's selectors will take Williams.</p><p></p><p><strong>Loosies: </strong> I reckon Read, Cane, Vito, and Messam are certainties. Whether they take another 1 or two loosies is an interesting debate. Personally I reckon they will only take one. The selectors have shown in the past they are big fans of Brad Shields, however I think they would be mad to select him over Luatua based on this seasons form - Shields has been good, but Luatua has been simply outstanding. If the selectors do opt for 6 loosies I can't see room for both Luatua and Shields given they already have piles of cover for 6 and 8 in the squad. The only reason I could see for opting for 6 loosies is to include cover for Sam Cane at 7. Personally I would opt for Luke Braid. as he has been (again!) the best NZ 7 on display this season in my opinion, but I suspect the selectors are more likely to opt for Matt Todd (or even John Hardie).</p><p></p><p><strong>Halfbacks: </strong>I would be surprised if Smith and Weepu aren't selected again. I'm not sure whether they will pick three halfback, but I suspect Kerr-Barlow will be picked if this is the case. I still reckon Perenara is the most talented of the lot, but I feel he won't get picked until the end of year tour.</p><p></p><p><strong>First-fives: </strong>It depends whether they go for 2 or 3 first-fives. Personally I think they will go for 3 (if they take a 30-man squad), with the 3rd being Barrett.</p><p></p><p><strong>Mid-field: </strong>Nonu, Kahui, Smith & Smith are certainties (assuming Kahui is fit). Personally I would look at blooding a new midfield back (preferably a 12), but between those four I reckon the AB's selectors will consider they have the area covered. Ranger is a certainly a good option if he is staying. In terms of 12 options Saili is certainly the most promising - I'm a fan of Crotty (who has played well this season), but I'm not convinced he is really a test 12.</p><p></p><p><strong>Outside backs: </strong>Gear, Savea, and Dagg are certainties, with B Smith and Kahui also options. I reckon the AB's selectors will either look at taking Ranger or pick another outside back (with Piutau the obvious choice). Piutau is not without flaws (a high error rate, and he gets tunnel vision once he gets the ball), but he is phenomenal with ball in hand.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>I think we have been through this more than a few times <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite2" alt=";)" title="Wink ;)" loading="lazy" data-shortname=";)" /> A Smith offers a different skill-set to the others (and was outstanding at times for the AB's last season). I would be surprised if he wasn't picked.</p><p></p><p>While I agree Barrett hasn't been at his best, he is a certainty if they take three 10's. Anscombe has impressed this season (at fullback), but I don't think he is near ready to be a test first-five. He has never shown the ability to control the game in the 10 jersey (even at ITM Cup level) - indeed he has looked much better this season when he hasn't had the responsibility to control the game. In addition if you are worried about Barrett's defense Anscombe would not be a good replacement, as he is probably one of the few players in NZ rugby who are worse defenders than Barrett! </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>I agree entirely. Savea is a freak, but he is barely ready for Super Rugby level at this stage (let alone test level). In any case Savea will be in France with the U20's while France are over here. Cane has overall been very impressive this season in my opinion - more justifying his spot as McCaw's back-up in my opinion.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>I don't think Aki will be anywhere near AB's selection. He was good in the ITM Cup, but he has been pretty quiet for the Chiefs. Saili is far more promising in my opinion, while Crotty wouldn't let the AB's down either. Bateman has been a bit disappointing in my opinion, but I suspect he would still be rated ahead of Aki.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Darwin, post: 567087, member: 24910"] Overall a very good summary of where we are at. The only thing I don't agree with is the forward: backs ratio you have suggested in the squad (15 forwards :15 backs). Traditionally in a 30-man squad you would have a 16:14 split or a 17:13 split. I assume we will see 8-man benches used for the June tests - if so I personally would be in favour of a 17:13 split. [I]My $0.0165 AUD:[/I] [B]Props: [/B]I would be surprised if there were not 5 props selected - we opted for 5 last season even before we needed 2 on the bench. Woodcock and Owen Franks are certainties (as you suggest), and assuming Afeaki gets back to full fitness soon he too is almost a certainty. The next best two props in the country are Ben Franks and Wyatt Crockett so I expect them to be included. [B]Hookers: [/B]I reckon the AB's will stick with the two old hookers as you suggest. If Coles had not been injured he could have pushed a lot harder for selection. Elliot is out of favour with the Chiefs coaches (and the Hawke's Bay coaches.... and the All Blacks coaches), while none of the younger hookers (Marshall, Funnell, Coltman etc) have had near enough experience. Cory Flynn has played consistently well for the Crusaders and it wouldn't actually surprise me if he was considered if either Hore or Mealamu got injured. [B][B]Locks: [/B][/B]Agree entirely with your analysis - it is either Williams for the 4th locking spot or no-one. Personally I would opt for no-one, but I suspect the AB's selectors will take Williams. [B]Loosies: [/B] I reckon Read, Cane, Vito, and Messam are certainties. Whether they take another 1 or two loosies is an interesting debate. Personally I reckon they will only take one. The selectors have shown in the past they are big fans of Brad Shields, however I think they would be mad to select him over Luatua based on this seasons form - Shields has been good, but Luatua has been simply outstanding. If the selectors do opt for 6 loosies I can't see room for both Luatua and Shields given they already have piles of cover for 6 and 8 in the squad. The only reason I could see for opting for 6 loosies is to include cover for Sam Cane at 7. Personally I would opt for Luke Braid. as he has been (again!) the best NZ 7 on display this season in my opinion, but I suspect the selectors are more likely to opt for Matt Todd (or even John Hardie). [B]Halfbacks: [/B]I would be surprised if Smith and Weepu aren't selected again. I'm not sure whether they will pick three halfback, but I suspect Kerr-Barlow will be picked if this is the case. I still reckon Perenara is the most talented of the lot, but I feel he won't get picked until the end of year tour. [B]First-fives: [/B]It depends whether they go for 2 or 3 first-fives. Personally I think they will go for 3 (if they take a 30-man squad), with the 3rd being Barrett. [B]Mid-field: [/B]Nonu, Kahui, Smith & Smith are certainties (assuming Kahui is fit). Personally I would look at blooding a new midfield back (preferably a 12), but between those four I reckon the AB's selectors will consider they have the area covered. Ranger is a certainly a good option if he is staying. In terms of 12 options Saili is certainly the most promising - I'm a fan of Crotty (who has played well this season), but I'm not convinced he is really a test 12. [B]Outside backs: [/B]Gear, Savea, and Dagg are certainties, with B Smith and Kahui also options. I reckon the AB's selectors will either look at taking Ranger or pick another outside back (with Piutau the obvious choice). Piutau is not without flaws (a high error rate, and he gets tunnel vision once he gets the ball), but he is phenomenal with ball in hand. I think we have been through this more than a few times ;) A Smith offers a different skill-set to the others (and was outstanding at times for the AB's last season). I would be surprised if he wasn't picked. While I agree Barrett hasn't been at his best, he is a certainty if they take three 10's. Anscombe has impressed this season (at fullback), but I don't think he is near ready to be a test first-five. He has never shown the ability to control the game in the 10 jersey (even at ITM Cup level) - indeed he has looked much better this season when he hasn't had the responsibility to control the game. In addition if you are worried about Barrett's defense Anscombe would not be a good replacement, as he is probably one of the few players in NZ rugby who are worse defenders than Barrett! I agree entirely. Savea is a freak, but he is barely ready for Super Rugby level at this stage (let alone test level). In any case Savea will be in France with the U20's while France are over here. Cane has overall been very impressive this season in my opinion - more justifying his spot as McCaw's back-up in my opinion. I don't think Aki will be anywhere near AB's selection. He was good in the ITM Cup, but he has been pretty quiet for the Chiefs. Saili is far more promising in my opinion, while Crotty wouldn't let the AB's down either. Bateman has been a bit disappointing in my opinion, but I suspect he would still be rated ahead of Aki. [/QUOTE]
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