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We've got five more weeks before the All Blacks squad will form for the June test series against France.
The last couple of weeks has seen a few players go down, whereas others have stamped their mark on the competition.
It looks like there will only be thirty players selected in the squad, below I'll outline who I think will be selected now.
Guaranteed (19):
- K Mealamu
- A Hore
- T Woodcock
- O Franks
- S Whitelock
- L Romano
- B Retalick
- S Cane
- K Read
- A Smith
- D Carter
- A Cruden
- M Nonu
- C Smith
- R Kahui
- J Savea
- H Gear
- I Dagg
- B Smith
That leaves room for two front rowers, one lock, four loose forwards, one halfback, one centre and two outside backs. It's likely they'll only go for five loosies and five outside backs, which leaves two extra spots, and it's possible as well they opt for only three locks.
At this point in time, it's hard to see Ben Afeaki being overlooked for one front row spot. Charlie Faumuina is out injured, and Afeaki has been the form tighthead in New Zealand (and arguably in the competition). No young hooker is yet to put their hand up demanding selectino, so I think they'll stick to just two hookers for June and let a few of the younger guys battle it out in the ITM Cup (the most probable candidates for the EOYT being Coles, Funnell, Marshall and Coltman). One of Wyatt Crockett and Ben Franks will be selected, I'd imagine, to back up Woodcock. Franks has been better this year, so far, and has had more success at international level (although in the tighthead jersey), so he probably has the inside running.
At lock, Hansen and co. will simply opt for one of three options: Ali Williams, Dominic Bird or no one. Williams has performed better this season than last year, so is a more justified decision now, form wise. That being said, he was selected for his experience, which I think is no longer needed. Dominic Bird is the next cab of the ranks, but like the third hooker may be told to maintain his form for Canterbury in the ITM Cup. With Romano and Whitelock in the All Blacks, he'll get another full season of matches. I think the selectors may opt to have no fourth lock in the squad, and instead use one of the loose forwards as cover.
Only Cane and Read are certainties for the June squad, with Read likely captaining the team. With Messam being the premier blindside flanker last year, he will probably grab a spot. Vito is also likely, as the main back up to Read. That leaves room for one or two more loose forwards. Almost certainly one of Brad Shields and Steven Luatua will be selected, potentially both. Luatua is the favourite at the moment, I think, and his versatility means selecting only three locks is justifiable. None of the openside options have done anything new in this years competition so far, and are unlikely to grab a spot. Ardie Savea is the most promising newcomer, but is still a year away from selection. That means we may well see both Shields and Luatua in the squad - at least to get them time in the environment before they are forced onto the field.
The above selections would allow fifteen backs to be selected. Smith hasn't exactly set the world alight this season but his performances last year will be enough to grant him the numero uno halfback spot. Depending on Kerr-Barlow's form when he returns, the selectors could opt for any combination behind Smith or Weepu/Kerr-Barlow/Perenara. Weepu is not a long term option, but is a favourite of the selectors. His skill set is dissimilar to the other three candidates and his goal kicking is a huge asset with neither Cruden nor Barrett consistently slotting the goals. Kerr-Barlow was the third choice on the EOYT, but may be pipped by Perenara. Personally, I would use TKB and have Perenara accompany the squad on the EOYT (with Weepu sitting out). This is probably the toughest decision in the squad at the moment.
It is very likely Barrett will back up Cruden and Carter, even though his performances haven't been great this year. He is too promising a player with experience at the highest level already to be left out.
With seven centres and outside backs certainties (assuming Kahui's fitness), we are left with two more places in the squad. One of those positions will probably go to Charles Piutau, who can back up Dagg at fullback. Ben Smith looks set to back up Conrad at centre, and it sounds like Kahui may be played on the wing first and foremost. I would wager that the final position will therefore go to a midfielder. Andrew Horrell is no longer in contention, which means it's probably a straight shoot out between Francis Saili and Rene Ranger. Tim Bateman, Ryan Crotty and Robbie Fruean have not done enough to warrant selection, and no longer have age on their side (though none of them are 'old' as such). Ranger is probably the better short term option, but with expiry dates nearing for Conrad Smith and Nonu, the selectors may not want to go with another ageing player. Were it up to me, Saili would be in the squad. With only one or two other new caps being selected in the backs, and plenty of experience in the centres already, I think the selectors may do the same. It will hinge on Saili breaking back into the Blues first XV, however.
So, after all that, my predicted squad for the June series is:
Hookers - Mealamu, Hore
Props - Woodcock, Franks, Franks, Afeaki*
Locks - Whitelock, Romano, Retalick
Loose Forwards - Messam, Cane, Read, Luatua*, Shields*, Vito
Halfbacks - Smith, Weepu, Perenara*
First Fives - Carter, Cruden, Barrett
Centres - Nonu, Smith, Saili*, Smith
Wings - Savea, Kahui, Gear
Fullbacks - Dagg, Piutau*
The last couple of weeks has seen a few players go down, whereas others have stamped their mark on the competition.
It looks like there will only be thirty players selected in the squad, below I'll outline who I think will be selected now.
Guaranteed (19):
- K Mealamu
- A Hore
- T Woodcock
- O Franks
- S Whitelock
- L Romano
- B Retalick
- S Cane
- K Read
- A Smith
- D Carter
- A Cruden
- M Nonu
- C Smith
- R Kahui
- J Savea
- H Gear
- I Dagg
- B Smith
That leaves room for two front rowers, one lock, four loose forwards, one halfback, one centre and two outside backs. It's likely they'll only go for five loosies and five outside backs, which leaves two extra spots, and it's possible as well they opt for only three locks.
At this point in time, it's hard to see Ben Afeaki being overlooked for one front row spot. Charlie Faumuina is out injured, and Afeaki has been the form tighthead in New Zealand (and arguably in the competition). No young hooker is yet to put their hand up demanding selectino, so I think they'll stick to just two hookers for June and let a few of the younger guys battle it out in the ITM Cup (the most probable candidates for the EOYT being Coles, Funnell, Marshall and Coltman). One of Wyatt Crockett and Ben Franks will be selected, I'd imagine, to back up Woodcock. Franks has been better this year, so far, and has had more success at international level (although in the tighthead jersey), so he probably has the inside running.
At lock, Hansen and co. will simply opt for one of three options: Ali Williams, Dominic Bird or no one. Williams has performed better this season than last year, so is a more justified decision now, form wise. That being said, he was selected for his experience, which I think is no longer needed. Dominic Bird is the next cab of the ranks, but like the third hooker may be told to maintain his form for Canterbury in the ITM Cup. With Romano and Whitelock in the All Blacks, he'll get another full season of matches. I think the selectors may opt to have no fourth lock in the squad, and instead use one of the loose forwards as cover.
Only Cane and Read are certainties for the June squad, with Read likely captaining the team. With Messam being the premier blindside flanker last year, he will probably grab a spot. Vito is also likely, as the main back up to Read. That leaves room for one or two more loose forwards. Almost certainly one of Brad Shields and Steven Luatua will be selected, potentially both. Luatua is the favourite at the moment, I think, and his versatility means selecting only three locks is justifiable. None of the openside options have done anything new in this years competition so far, and are unlikely to grab a spot. Ardie Savea is the most promising newcomer, but is still a year away from selection. That means we may well see both Shields and Luatua in the squad - at least to get them time in the environment before they are forced onto the field.
The above selections would allow fifteen backs to be selected. Smith hasn't exactly set the world alight this season but his performances last year will be enough to grant him the numero uno halfback spot. Depending on Kerr-Barlow's form when he returns, the selectors could opt for any combination behind Smith or Weepu/Kerr-Barlow/Perenara. Weepu is not a long term option, but is a favourite of the selectors. His skill set is dissimilar to the other three candidates and his goal kicking is a huge asset with neither Cruden nor Barrett consistently slotting the goals. Kerr-Barlow was the third choice on the EOYT, but may be pipped by Perenara. Personally, I would use TKB and have Perenara accompany the squad on the EOYT (with Weepu sitting out). This is probably the toughest decision in the squad at the moment.
It is very likely Barrett will back up Cruden and Carter, even though his performances haven't been great this year. He is too promising a player with experience at the highest level already to be left out.
With seven centres and outside backs certainties (assuming Kahui's fitness), we are left with two more places in the squad. One of those positions will probably go to Charles Piutau, who can back up Dagg at fullback. Ben Smith looks set to back up Conrad at centre, and it sounds like Kahui may be played on the wing first and foremost. I would wager that the final position will therefore go to a midfielder. Andrew Horrell is no longer in contention, which means it's probably a straight shoot out between Francis Saili and Rene Ranger. Tim Bateman, Ryan Crotty and Robbie Fruean have not done enough to warrant selection, and no longer have age on their side (though none of them are 'old' as such). Ranger is probably the better short term option, but with expiry dates nearing for Conrad Smith and Nonu, the selectors may not want to go with another ageing player. Were it up to me, Saili would be in the squad. With only one or two other new caps being selected in the backs, and plenty of experience in the centres already, I think the selectors may do the same. It will hinge on Saili breaking back into the Blues first XV, however.
So, after all that, my predicted squad for the June series is:
Hookers - Mealamu, Hore
Props - Woodcock, Franks, Franks, Afeaki*
Locks - Whitelock, Romano, Retalick
Loose Forwards - Messam, Cane, Read, Luatua*, Shields*, Vito
Halfbacks - Smith, Weepu, Perenara*
First Fives - Carter, Cruden, Barrett
Centres - Nonu, Smith, Saili*, Smith
Wings - Savea, Kahui, Gear
Fullbacks - Dagg, Piutau*