ABs 2016 tries broken down (stats)

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Friend forwarded this to me and though some of you might find it interesting.

This one (below) is simply amazing.

The one below ain't a surprise but it does speak volumes

Source: http://www.the42.ie/analysis-all-blacks-tries-59-2016-3056059-Nov2016/?utm_source=twitter_self

 

[FNS]

This tells me that the slowest the ball to leave the ruck area and possession is "key" to play against them. Never lose the ball on mid field, go outside and leave the pitch with it its better than kick it away or something.

Well, it makes sense given pumas gameplay how we always manage to stay 50/55m close and the lose because we suck monkey balls.

 

[ianw16]

Hmmm, this peaked the interest of the stats geek within me. So I did a bit of analysis on the timing of the tries. The second last graphic looked like it may skew things somewhat, due to having unequal time periods allotted - i.e. 40-50 & 50-80. So I split it up into 4 quarters.
It looks a bit different when you do that:

00 - 20: 8 tries
20 - 40: 17 tries
40 - 60: 16 tries
60 - 80: 19 tries

The outcome of this is the message that if you aren't holding a healthy lead by the 20th minute, then you are probably buggered.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

The difference between 2/3/4th quarters is negligible and i'm pretty sure the drop in the 1st quarter is the same for the overwhelming mayority of teams. The first 15 minutes you are measuring yourself, testing the waters and you take less chances. It's not just a rugby thing. Happens in a lot of sports.

Btw, where do you get the info to re-split the tries per time? Thanks in advance.

 

[Brigantine]

Hmmm, this peaked the interest of the stats geek within me. So I did a bit of analysis on the timing of the tries. The second last graphic looked like it may skew things somewhat, due to having unequal time periods allotted - i.e. 40-50 & 50-80. So I split it up into 4 quarters.
It looks a bit different when you do that:

00 - 20: 8 tries
20 - 40: 17 tries
40 - 60: 16 tries
60 - 80: 19 tries

The outcome of this is the message that if you aren't holding a healthy lead by the 20th minute, then you are probably buggered.

Quite different to what I read into it. Maybe using 10 min intervals would show it better.

But what I saw was:
Tries per 10 minutes:
00 - 30: ~5 (fresh, low scoring)
30 - 40: ~10 (tired, high scoring)
40 - 50: ~5 (refreshed, low scoring)
50 - 80: ~10 (tired again, high scoring)

Interesting what a difference the choice of time periods has on the conclusion.

And I don't think that's telling you it's important to score in the first 30', but rather it's important to manage your energy and drain the opposition's, so you don't run out of steam first.

 

[ianw16]

The difference between 2/3/4th quarters is negligible and i'm pretty sure the drop in the 1st quarter is the same for the overwhelming mayority of teams. The first 15 minutes you are measuring yourself, testing the waters and you take less chances. It's not just a rugby thing. Happens in a lot of sports.

Btw, where do you get the info to re-split the tries per time? Thanks in advance.

I just Googled the scorelines (which I have in an Excel worksheet), and then used Sky Sports match reports, which give the timings of the tries scored.
Something I noticed, but didn't bother recording, was that the ABs seem to cough up a few late tries themselves. The difference being that they did it in games which were already won. I think Wales got a couple of late ones in the 2nd test, Oz got one in Sydney, and I think your boys managed 1 or 2 in BA. A similar thing happened when England toured NZ a couple of years ago in the 2nd test, including 1 after the hooter, which turned it into a 1 point win. There was never any danger of those games being lost, but it makes me wonder if there isn't a subconscious easing up by the blacks.

 

[ianw16]

Quite different to what I read into it. Maybe using 10 min intervals would show it better.

Never being one to shirk a challenge:

00-10: 4
10-20: 4
20-30: 8
30-40: 9
40-50: 5
50-60: 11
60-70: 10
70-80: 9

Of those 9 in the 70-80 bracket, 4 came against SA in Durban. None of those 9 tries were crucial to the result. Basically, it shows that the real damage is done from minutes 50-70. That is when the ABs turn the screw, and the opposition tends to fade. Stay with them through that, and you may have a chance.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

So... get ahead in the first 20 mins of either half and force as many phases as possible for the rest, and you might come within a score or even fluke a win. Tomorrow will be great!

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

I might be biased, but i think the best blueprint to beat the All Blacks came from Argentina's 1st half against them in Hamilton. Going through the middle and offloading worked quite well for us. Well, except we dropped the ball, so i should say "worked quite well vs the ABs".

Just make sure that when u kick the ball it leaves the field and, do whatever it takes to slow their ball at the ruck. Every missed tackle is half a try, against the ABs. Do not over-commit at the rucks. They always appear to have extra men open.
They've got their worst kicker in decades, so it's not as if every penalty on your half will result in points for them.

After i paved the way for Ireland's first victory i expect nothing short of a pint next time i'm in Ireland. Consider yourselves notified.

 

[RedruthRFC]

I might be biased, but i think the best blueprint to beat the All Blacks came from Argentina's 1st half against them in Hamilton. Going through the middle and offloading worked quite well for us. Well, except we dropped the ball, so i should say "worked quite well vs the ABs".

Just make sure that when u kick the ball it leaves the field and, do whatever it takes to slow their ball at the ruck. Every missed tackle is half a try, against the ABs. Do not over-commit at the rucks. They always appear to have extra men open.
They've got their worst kicker in decades, so it's not as if every penalty on your half will result in points for them.

After i paved the way for Ireland's first victory i expect nothing short of a pint next time i'm in Ireland. Consider yourselves notified.

Isn't this a contradiction in terms? If you get too hung up on slowing down their ruck ball, there's a big risk of over committing and getting exposed elsewhere. Therein lies a good part of the difficulty of beating the ABs. I only saw the last 20 minutes of their last test against Australia, but the ruck certainly appeared to be where they were beating the Aussies.

I didn't see the game from Hamilton, but I felt that there was a fair bit for other coaches to learn from the way that Argentina dictated the game for big chunks of the second half from Buenos Aires.

 

[Brigantine]

There was never any danger of those games being lost, but it makes me wonder if there isn't a subconscious easing up by the blacks.

I don't think it's subconscious anything. The All Blacks get tired by the end of a game too - It's just harder to notice when the opponent is already even more tired, which has been the case every game except Buenos Aires.

Seriously, that game was frightening. Those Pumas found our secret and our Achilles heel, they just couldn't shoot their arrow straight that time. That's the way we will eventually be beaten - with a taste of our own medicine! Teams that focus on the first 30 minutes (scoreline wise, as opposed to just dictating intensity & pressure) fall straight into our trap and burn themselves out early.

 

[Brigantine]

70-80: 9

Of those 9 in the 70-80 bracket, 4 came against SA in Durban. None of those 9 tries were crucial to the result. Basically, it shows that the real damage is done from minutes 50-70. That is when the ABs turn the screw, and the opposition tends to fade. Stay with them through that, and you may have a chance.

Aha! So now we get to see at what point the AB's themselves tire out. (Though at what precise minute each team starts emptying the bench complicates this picture too)

Can you tell how many games the AB's actually *lost* the last 10 mins of?

 

[Makos]

Seriously, that game was frightening. Those Pumas found our secret and our Achilles heel

That game was great. I really enjoy watching the All Blacks play the Argentinians, they're creative and passionate. It's a pleasure to watch them and in time they will become very precise and drop the error rate causing more results to go in their favour.

 

[ianw16]

Aha! So now we get to see at what point the AB's themselves tire out. (Though at what precise minute each team starts emptying the bench complicates this picture too)

Can you tell how many games the AB's actually *lost* the last 10 mins of?

Well, that was my point about them maybe slackening off, subconsciously or otherwise, when well ahead. Three of them. There was the Wales 2nd test where they scored two late tries to put a gloss on things, but still lost by 14. The late try in Sydney, which was all over by half time, and the Argentina away game where, again, the ABs were in an unbeatable position.
My reading of it is that they still have plenty in the tank, if needed.
We've seen it against Ireland in 2014, we saw it with Fekitoa's late try against Aus in the 29-28 game. I think the first test against England in 2014 required a late try to win it. Second test we blew them away after halftime, and conceded a couple of late ones that affected the scoreboard, but not the result. They outlasted SA in the classic game at altitude in 2013, despite still having some 'older' players back then. And did the same at the RWC. In 2014 Wales had led for quite a while, but the ABs hammered them in the last 15 or so.
The only late loss I can think of was SA in 2014, when we fought back to lead, but lost to a late long range penalty. There was the blip of the 'norovirus' test, and last years RC loss to Aus. That's been it for 5 years!
I think any team that wants to beat them have to obviously be close in those last 10 (or well ahead!), but also need the same fitness levels and composure that the ABs display.

I think Eddie Jones, for all his bluster, acknowledged that England would need those sort of fitness levels if they hope to beat them. Maybe that's why he managed to break so many of them in his recent training camp! I don't envy him, as the system in England isn't particularly conducive to the national coach having the sort of influence and player management that NZ coaches have. However, they'll need more than just fitness.
Obviously there are bound to be one off losses, here and there. They can't go unbeaten from here to eternity! However, as things currently stand, it's hard to see them being knocked off their perch for any sustained amount of time by any of the chasing pack. All those other countries have various issues that make it difficult to put together a sustained period of dominance.

So, we'll probably lose to Ireland tomorrow

 

[dullonien]

Most interesting stat for me is the number of tries in comparison to number of rucks. Shows that the old mantras of going through the phases, and earning the right to go wide certainly don't exist for the AB's!

 

[ianw16]

Most interesting stat for me is the number of tries in comparison to number of rucks. Shows that the old mantras of going through the phases, and earning the right to go wide certainly don't exist for the AB's!

Good point. I think the old thinking was that the more phases you build, the more players get dragged into contact areas, and the gaps will open up. TBH, my view on it is that quick ball is far more important. As is attacking from turnover ball. The first ruck or two after a turnover means that the opposition are less likely to have their defence sorted out. If it's slow ball, and 15 phases, then they really ought to be lined up! Better to kick it and start again. Defences are so well organised these days, that you're better off attacking from what the Yanks call 'broken field' play. Kick returns and turnover ball in particular. I also see too much heading into contact for the sake of it. By which I mean a player, often a forward, just running into contact, with both himself and the opponent knowing that he will go to ground. It has its place, of course. You've got to make the hard yards. However, there is no harm in that prop or lock occasionally offloading in the tackle to keep the opponent guessing.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

@RedruthRFC
Not necessarily, but i see your point. I guess the phrase "whatever it takes" was a poor choice. What i meant to say is that you need to slow them down without over committing, which is kinda tricky and makes them such a hard team to counter.