A Political Thread pt. 2

[Ragey Erasmus]

Conservatives are looking at being supplanted by Reform if this polling holds

Probably not entirely but I do think they will take a huge chunk out of them. The funny thing about traditional conservatives is they don't like change, including changing to a new party. I think there will be plenty who will stick with them still and split the vote rather than Reform completely replacing them.

 

[Saintjay]

Greens, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru, SNP and Labour for the left.

Conservatives and only recently Reform for the right. The left have been dealing with split votes for ages, but it's only media worthy when the right suddenly needs to deal with it.

Labour are also losing people to Reform especially those that went back to Labour in the North, North East.

I think it's also a tad self-inflicted with voters going green/lib dem.

It might change the two party system which probably isn't a bad thing

 

[dirty harry]

Greens, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru, SNP and Labour for the left.

Conservatives and only recently Reform for the right. The left have been dealing with split votes for ages, but it's only media worthy when the right suddenly needs to deal with it.

Im not sure Labour is left, this one is certainly centre right, especially on immigration, fiscal responsibilies, business, law and order etc... i think the last time we saw genuine centre left labour government was the 90s, despite Corbyds efforts.

I dont think theres anywhere for Labour supporters to go, Tories might have some of the middle return, Reform might take a tiny few, Plaid and SNP will get the nationalists, butni dont think LibDems or Greens take many either, too many of theor progressive policies are drowned out by the stupidity.

I think Labours biggest issue is relevancy, they spent so much time on the sidelines, Corbyn got close before they benefited from a Tory collapse, Labour hadnt been in power for so long people forgot how inept, and dangerous they also were.

I think someone mentioned it weeks ago, we are headed into a rebelious voting era, where Labours big threat is from a weaponised public looking to punish them, like the Race to 0 campaign the Tories just endured, i think thats why we are constantly seeing Starmer U turn on issues, i think hes read the room, and now wants to just fade into the background on every issue, as hes doing with Trump.

 

[dirty harry]

Labour are also losing people to Reform especially those that went back to Labour in the North, North East.

I think it's also a tad self-inflicted with voters going green/lib dem.

It might change the two party system which probably isn't a bad thing

I agree, id much prefer some of the European systems that have collaberative governments, the down sides is the pace that things move, but the benefits outweigh that IMHO.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Im not sure Labour is left, this one is certainly centre right, especially on immigration, fiscal responsibilies, business, law and order etc... i think the last time we saw genuine centre left labour government was the 90s, despite Corbyds efforts.

I dont think theres anywhere for Labour supporters to go, Tories might have some of the middle return, Reform might take a tiny few, Plaid and SNP will get the nationalists, butni dont think LibDems or Greens take many either, too many of theor progressive policies are drowned out by the stupidity.

I think Labours biggest issue is relevancy, they spent so much time on the sidelines, Corbyn got close before they benefited from a Tory collapse, Labour hadnt been in power for so long people forgot how inept, and dangerous they also were.

I think someone mentioned it weeks ago, we are headed into a rebelious voting era, where Labours big threat is from a weaponised public looking to punish them, like the Race to 0 campaign the Tories just endured, i think thats why we are constantly seeing Starmer U turn on issues, i think hes read the room, and now wants to just fade into the background on every issue, as hes doing with Trump.

It's less an issue of where a party sits and more where the left wing vote goes. For ages the right wing vote has all gone to one party and the left wing vote has been largely with a right light party.

But now the media are making out like the dilution if the right wing vote is newsworthy when the next wing have always been fighting having their voting diluted by split votes, media hostility and the main party not even being that left wing any more.

 

[dirty harry]

It's less an issue of where a party sits and more where the left wing vote goes. For ages the right wing vote has all gone to one party and the left wing vote has been largely with a right light party.

But now the media are making out like the dilution if the right wing vote is newsworthy when the next wing have always been fighting having their voting diluted by split votes, media hostility and the main party not even being that left wing any more.

Ok thats a fair point.

I think when you compare reform/tories, and Labour/greens,libdem,snp,plaid the split is probably evenly spread, whereas the smaller parties mop up specicifics.

For example, if Greens or SNP vanish, i dont think the 2 millionnor so votes between them go to Labour anyway, infact i bet a lot of them are there to avoid both Labour and Tories. Similar with Lib Dems and the 17 people who vote for Plaid.

Whereas Reform voters are directly from Tories, and anyone switching back to Tories will be from Reform.

I just dont think its a real comparison because your just assuming Labour would mop up large amounts of votes from the smaller parties, and i dont think thats the case.

Reform and Tories are in contention, whereas Labour and the smaller parties can allt, like they did recently, and fight on every right wing seat.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Ok thats a fair point.

I think when you compare reform/tories, and Labour/greens,libdem,snp,plaid the split is probably evenly spread, whereas the smaller parties mop up specicifics.

For example, if Greens or SNP vanish, i dont think the 2 millionnor so votes between them go to Labour anyway, infact i bet a lot of them are there to avoid both Labour and Tories. Similar with Lib Dems and the 17 people who vote for Plaid.

Whereas Reform voters are directly from Tories, and anyone switching back to Tories will be from Reform.

I just dont think its a real comparison because your just assuming Labour would mop up large amounts of votes from the smaller parties, and i dont think thats the case.

Reform and Tories are in contention, whereas Labour and the smaller parties can allt, like they did recently, and fight on every right wing seat.

That's kinda the point, if one of the left wing parties vanished, it's so split they could just go to another one and that the largest (Labour) often doesn't see the benefit of this whilst is very quick to see the negative of unhappy voters leaving, same as all the left wing parties.

The very first year the right face this same issue and it's a big thing. At the moment we have no idea how many votes Reform will hoover up and how many MPs they will get.

 

[dirty harry]

That's kinda the point, if one of the left wing parties vanished, it's so split they could just go to another one and that the largest (Labour) often doesn't see the benefit of this whilst is very quick to see the negative of unhappy voters leaving, same as all the left wing parties.

The very first year the right face this same issue and it's a big thing. At the moment we have no idea how many votes Reform will hoover up and how many MPs they will get.

Bur i wouldnt class Labour as left wing, id barely call SNP or Plaid left wing either, i think the left wing arr on Lib Dems, and Greens, and those 'left wing' votes are made up of centrists who flitter between major parties.

I also dont think this is the first time, Reform and Tories split their combined vote 60/40 in 24, and considering Labours poor showing that is probably a large factornin their default success

Labours big vote loss wont come from Lib dems and Greens taking them, itll be people not showing up to vote at all more than likely.

So i dont think Labour can capture the left wing vote, those people arent leaving Greens and Lib Dems, theyre too solidified in what they offer (moral frandstanding knowing theyll never hadlve to try to impliment things like eradicating NATO).

As before, the 'left' ally to compete, whereas the 'right' genuinely compete with each other.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Bur i wouldnt class Labour as left wing, id barely call SNP or Plaid left wing either, i think the left wing arr on Lib Dems, and Greens, and those 'left wing' votes are made up of centrists who flitter between major parties.

I also dont think this is the first time, Reform and Tories split their combined vote 60/40 in 24, and considering Labours poor showing that is probably a large factornin their default success

Labours big vote loss wont come from Lib dems and Greens taking them, itll be people not showing up to vote at all more than likely.

So i dont think Labour can capture the left wing vote, those people arent leaving Greens and Lib Dems, theyre too solidified in what they offer (moral frandstanding knowing theyll never hadlve to try to impliment things like eradicating NATO).

As before, the 'left' ally to compete, whereas the 'right' genuinely compete with each other.

Again I don't mean left wing as in their position as such and more parties that left wing people would vote for. The left in this country, contrary to the constant screeching by the right wing, is actually poorly represented.

Until very recently the Tories could rely on the fact that the right only had 2 options: vote Tory or don't vote, with a very small proportion going Lib Dem. Many on the right would still tactically vote Tory just to keep others out.

For the left, there were plenty of options if you got fed up with Labour (which many have). In every election for my lifetime at least, if you add up the votes for parties left wingers would vote for and compared them against the votes for parties the right would vote for, the left win every time. However the right have held power more than half of this time because their vote was concentrated in 1 party.

They are now having to face what the left have done for decades but suddenly now split votes are a problem, when they had no problem with it when it only occurred on the left. For example period aging the Reform voters to the Tories to say the right wing actually won the last election, whilst not adding the greens, lib Dems or any others to Labour, which would show it was actually left wing parties that won. Hell you yourself talk about how Reform took so many Tory votes but discount how left wing parties take Labour voted. This is exactly what I mean, the left wing split is so baked in it's ignored and denied whereas the new right wing split is being massively talked about. It's a gigantic double standard. Welcome to a more level playing field.

Last election, Tory + Reform = 38%. Labour+ Green = 40.1%. Yet the former is brought up as how the right wing actually won but the latter isn't brought up for how they didn't.

 

[dirty harry]

Again I don't mean left wing as in their position as such and more parties that left wing people would vote for. The left in this country, contrary to the constant screeching by the right wing, is actually poorly represented.

Until very recently the Tories could rely on the fact that the right only had 2 options: vote Tory or don't vote, with a very small proportion going Lib Dem. Many on the right would still tactically vote Tory just to keep others out.

For the left, there were plenty of options if you got fed up with Labour (which many have). In every election for my lifetime at least, if you add up the votes for parties left wingers would vote for and compared them against the votes for parties the right would vote for, the left win every time. However the right have held power more than half of this time because their vote was concentrated in 1 party.

They are now having to face what the left have done for decades but suddenly now split votes are a problem, when they had no problem with it when it only occurred on the left. For example period aging the Reform voters to the Tories to say the right wing actually won the last election, whilst not adding the greens, lib Dems or any others to Labour, which would show it was actually left wing parties that won. Hell you yourself talk about how Reform took so many Tory votes but discount how left wing parties take Labour voted. This is exactly what I mean, the left wing split is so baked in it's ignored and denied whereas the new right wing split is being massively talked about. It's a gigantic double standard. Welcome to a more level playing field.

Last election, Tory + Reform = 38%. Labour+ Green = 40.1%. Yet the former is brought up as how the right wing actually won but the latter isn't brought up for how they didn't.

But i dont think left wingers vote Labour is what im trying to say.

If Labour vanished tomorrow, id argue more votes would lean Tory than LibDem and Green.

So just because you lump 5 parties as left, i disagree its a left voting block, and that Labour voters are mostly centrists who vote Labour along class, or self interest lines, not because of progressive policies, which there were very few (outside of 0 hour contracts and renters rights reform). Infact, the reality of this Labour government has been as right as the last Tory government.

I dont think there has ever been a left and right wing in the UK in the simple American terms, bastardised from the French, until we started to follow their culture as always and policitcs became sexy again.

UK politics is far more nuanced, Labour still benefit from the class systems, and have rebranded as everything everyone wants.

Id agree they benefit from strategic voting based on FPTP, but i think that would be based on anti Tory sentiment as opposed to pro left sentiment.

I think the size of hard left is much smaller than hard right in the uk, but the softer left is larger than the softer right, which since Blair has leaned right for safety due to how radical the left has become / been portrayed.