A Political Thread pt. 2

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Need to send in Captain Birdseye to Jersey he will handle it

 

[McTallshort]

So, Hartlepool has a Tory MP for the first time in its history.

Can we now admit that there is no credible opposition to the current government?

 

[ncurd]

So, Hartlepool has a Tory MP for the first time in its history.

Can we now admit that there is no credible opposition to the current government?

It's not as bad a result for Labour as suggested the Tory one with 52% of the result. Last time Brexit Party and Tory got 54.7% of the vote. If that vote hadn't been split we would not be talking about this and it would be part of Corbyns complete failure.

Turnout down by 15.2% left wing vote way more split. Previous MP resigning in disgrace. Strong independent candidate scooping up nearly 10% of the vote.


Not saying it isn't bad for Labour just it isn't the Earthshattering result people are going to make out it be.

 

[ncurd]

Now the real thing we want to see today is can Binface beat Fox, Gammons and Corbyn

 

[ncurd]

Council elections will also give some better indication on if Labour are doing better or worse. Will be hard gauge fully due to the Global Pandemic and successful vaccine rollout. So it's not normal times.

 

[Gavin]

The fact that an inflatable figure of Boris Johnson was erected outside the Hartlepool counting building, tells you all you need to know about how politics has changed in the UK

 

[ncurd]

The fact that an inflatable figure of Boris Johnson was erected outside the Hartlepool counting building, tells you all you need to know about how politics has changed in the UK

Reality is after 2019 most analysts were predicting it would take 2-3 general elections before a Tory majority could be overturned. 1.5 years after that result and roughly 3.5 years before the 1st of those. This result just says 'yeah that analysis was about right.

 

[McTallshort]

Reality is after 2019 most analysts were predicting it would take 2-3 general elections before a Tory majority could be overturned. 1.5 years after that result and roughly 3.5 years before the 1st of those. This result just says 'yeah that analysis was about right.

Did the analysis include 130k killed in a badly handled pandemic?

 

[ncurd]

Did the analysis include 130k killed in a badly handled pandemic?

Doesn't include a highly successful vaccine either like I said in the other post you completely ignored. I also said these weren't normal times.

I just think people are reading way to much into a result that if it wasn't for FPTP would happened in the last election as well.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

I don't get why people expected a short turn around.
It's like the "Can't blame Corbyn" crowd people seem to think the last 4 years would magically disappear.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Some of these council results are astronomical numbers wise!

 

[ncurd]

Some of these council results are astronomical numbers wise!

Now that one is shocking, you expect the UKIP collapse to swing Tory.

Ah wait that's literally one ward in an entire council. Yeah that **** happens indivdual seats can fluctuate wildly if it was over the entire council it would be more shocking.

 

[Wasps92]

The reality is that people in these northern towns are proud, proud of who they are and proud of where they come from and they will not relate to a party that is obsessed with identity politics and riddled with middle class champagne socialists.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

They are also Unfortutely and typically uneducated.

Have to be to think a party " riddled with middle class champagne socialists." is worse than a party riddled with legit champagne capitalists.

 

[Gavin]

I can't help but see these elections still shadowed by Brexit.

Them: "we have a freeport in Hartlepool thanks to leaving the EU"
Me: "there are loads of freeports in the EU and there were a number in the UK"
Them: "we have conquered the virus because of the vaccine programme thanks to leaving the EU"
Me: "we started the vaccine programme and acquisitions whilst following the EU rules during the transition period, and could have done it as still an EU member"
Them: "they need us more than we need them"
Me: "shellfish companies going out of business"
Them: "you woke leftist Marxist remoaner"
Me:
Them: *wander off to Wetherspoons for a pint and a fry

 

[ncurd]

The reality is that people in these northern towns are proud, proud of who they are and proud of where they come from and they will not relate to a party that is obsessed with identity politics and riddled with middle class champagne socialists.

Yeah because the Conservatives are the party of the people.

I mean Labour really isn't (even under Corbyn) but it has that perception and it has to persuade people it isn't.

They are also Unfortutely and typically uneducated.

This doesn't help....

 

[ncurd]

Them: "we have conquered the virus because of the vaccine programme thanks to leaving the EU"
Me: "we started the vaccine programme and acquisitions whilst following the EU rules during the transition period, and could have done it as still an EU member"

I get this from the in-laws, well my wife does I'm not allowed to talk politics with them (I'm not allowed to say much of anything if were honest). Its like talking to a brick wall at the moment to certain part of the electorate and they will not under circumstances concede any part Brexit has been a failure because they want to believe so much it is a success or will be eventually.

Until reality sets in like it has for fishermen I don't see what changing anytime soon.

Labour has to think "differently" the pandemic has made it hard and being only 1.5 years after a terrible election result. Nobody is going to listen about Brexit and TBF Starmer hasn't really engaged on that front. What he does have to is start working with the other parties over 50% of voters in the last election were decidedly not Tory or Brexit Party. They might not get a majority in 2024 or whenever but they certainly will make quite a few gains.

Scotland is lost, some of the North is (like Hartlepool) need to focus less on winning those back and think where they could win instead.

 

[McTallshort]

The electorate is the same for all parties.

Blaming a smelly underclass for being too thick to vote for Labour is like a teacher blaming a kid for being too thick to pass his maths exam.

In my 45 years of being on this planet this is the worst government I have ever known dealing with the worst situation I have known and still none seems able to challenge them.

Blaming uneducated voters, the right wing press, populism etc etc is just like a rugby player blaming the referee, the pitch conditions, lack of preparation time etc

In the words of Jim Telfer: there's two types of players boys, the honest ones and the rest

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

The electorate is the same for all parties.

Blaming a smelly underclass for being too thick to vote for Labour is like a teacher blaming a kid for being too thick to pass his maths exam.

In my 45 years of being on this planet this is the worst government I have ever known dealing with the worst situation I have known and still none seems able to challenge them.

Blaming uneducated voters, the right wing press, populism etc etc is just like a rugby player blaming the referee, the pitch conditions, lack of preparation time etc

In the words of Jim Telfer: there's two types of players boys, the honest ones and the rest

So why do people keep voting for them then?
Also you know preparation time is pretty important for rugby right? (As is the ref)

 

[ncurd]

The electorate is the same for all parties.

Blaming a smelly underclass for being too thick to vote for Labour is like a teacher blaming a kid for being too thick to pass his maths exam.

In my 45 years of being on this planet this is the worst government I have ever known dealing with the worst situation I have known and still none seems able to challenge them.

Blaming uneducated voters, the right wing press, populism etc etc is just like a rugby player blaming the referee, the pitch conditions, lack of preparation time etc

In the words of Jim Telfer: there's two types of players boys, the honest ones and the rest

Agreed mostly,

I think blaming populism is a fair cop thought because that is what Johnson is a populist the issue with it he says the populist things and then complete breaks those promises.

However the problem is how do you combat that populism and saying what you said "it uneducated voters", "its right wing press" yeah those are causes but that isn't going to get anyone to vote for you. You have to offer an 'alternative'. We've also seen that exposure to that, the rank hypocrisy of government does make minor dents in polling but it appears very short term (after last week it does appear a few days later it made about 4 points difference but yesterday it appears to have made none).

The problem is what are you selling and how do you sell it. Labour don't appear currently to be offering a plan (none of the other parties do I left the LD's for a reason). Now were (hopefully) exiting the pandemic I do hope Starmer and others can actually craft that message but until they do. "Not as evil as Tories" isn't going to cut the mustard.