A Political Thread pt. 2

[TRF_Olyy]

Yeah, eventually they'll scrap it and try and justify it by saying that with mandatory workplace pensions it's not needed

 

[Bada-Bing!]

So the usual, how do the rich stay rich, tax avoidance. Why isn't it illegal? Because the ones in power are the ones who benefit.

Ok so he did it, he's no different from pretty much every other wealthy person. What I still don't get and never will are the poor people who think that people like Sunak, Zahawi, Johnson, Trump etc... actually have their best interests at heart and are the ones that will give them what they need.

‘Careless not deliberate’: what’s going on with Nadhim Zahawi’s taxes?

Rishi Sunak is facing calls to explain what he knew about the former UK chancellor’s tax affairs. We explain what the story is about

www.theguardian.com

Reading a bit more into this since the story broke. This Dan Neidle seems to be on the money on this and was the one first brought it to the attention of the media then

Apparently Zahawi didn't take any shares on the offshore company and instead gave him to his dad instead via this offshore company controlled by his parents via a trust. But Zahawi slipped up and there was reported via one of his UK property businesses a gift or loan from the offshore company of £99,000 reported via Companies House.

The company then sells their shares for £27m and then suspiciously Zahawi receives another loan from an unrelated third party for £24m.

Neidle's conclusion is that Zahawi didn't want to pay UK tax on these payments. And he got threatened by Zahawi's lawyers for disclosing this.

To answer your question there are specific UK tax rules to stop this from happening. I have only dealt with one client who is UK resident tax payer receiving payments from an offshore trust and what happens is the payments are matched to income and gains the trust/company make in a specific order and subject to UK tax on the UK resident tax payer which Zahawi is.

And Zahawi clearly benefited from it and was careless (admitted by paying the 30% penalty) so we'll see what Sunak's investigation comes up with. But can't see how Zahawi gets to keep his position regardless after this.

 

[ncurd]

Christ either he did and you guys to admit it now or he didn't and you shouldn't play games.

God these guys are just inept.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Christ either he did and you guys to admit it now or he didn't and you shouldn't play games.

God these guys are just inept.

Not inept, malicious. These people are corrupt to the core. The whole country has been taken for a ride by the Tories for the past decade and they have enriched themselves and their buddies at the expense of everyone else. Even leaving the EU was pushed by them because they saw a means of personal enrichment.

These ******** are bleeding the country dry and have convinced a large chunk of them that that is what is best for the country.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Almost a year later than Ukraine wanted and needed, but we've finally got there.

Russia unleashes missiles, drones at Ukraine after Kyiv secures tanks, 11 dead

Russia sent Ukrainian civilians racing for cover with a barrage of missiles and drones, killing at least 11 people according to officials, a day after Kyiv won Western pledges of dozens of battlefield tanks to try to repel Russia's invasion.

www.reuters.com

With anticipated 1 year delays in getting these supplied and soldiers trained place let's hope Ukraine is still in a position where it can actually make a difference with these (whereas if the decision had been taken swiftly these tanks would have been liberating territory this spring). Ukraine says it needs a minimum of 300, independent estimates say nearer 700 would be required to turn the tide but that Ukraine is being realistic in terms of the limit on what it could be supplied. So let's see how many they get (in fairness to other countries they don't have loads of spare tanks due to decades of non-investment in conventional arms).

Bizarre statements around this in the past week. The US excuse for not supplying tanks was literally to claim that theirs are a bit rubbish (high maintenance and gas guzzlers compared to Germany). Then 48hrs later they agree to send their 'crap' tanks to Ukraine.

I feel sorry for Germany who I think has behaved very well from day one and made arguably more sacrifice and changed more policy than anyone other than Poland and Czech/Slovaks when it comes to helping Ukraine. Germany was quite right to say 'we will supply tanks if the US does' and credit to the UK in building pressure by pledging tanks first.

France is Europe's largest arms supplier by a mile (2nd largest in the world I think) and I've yet to read a single line about pressure on France to supply tanks, or indeed to supply anything. It's like they are sulking that military aid is NATO focussed rather than EU focussed but the international community are giving Macron a free pass.

After a year waiting for better tanks (and a resulting higher death rate of Ukrainians during that year of indecision) I hope it is not another wasted year until the penny drops about the need for jets. Overall though, I still give the international support to Ukraine a solid 7/10 and thank goodness they have taken this decision as it keeps hope alive and should help the morale of the Ukranian armed forces.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Almost a year later than Ukraine wanted and needed, but we've finally got there.

Russia unleashes missiles, drones at Ukraine after Kyiv secures tanks, 11 dead

Russia sent Ukrainian civilians racing for cover with a barrage of missiles and drones, killing at least 11 people according to officials, a day after Kyiv won Western pledges of dozens of battlefield tanks to try to repel Russia's invasion.

www.reuters.com

With anticipated 1 year delays in getting these supplied and soldiers trained place let's hope Ukraine is still in a position where it can actually make a difference with these (whereas if the decision had been taken swiftly these tanks would have been liberating territory this spring). Ukraine says it needs a minimum of 300, independent estimates say nearer 700 would be required to turn the tide but that Ukraine is being realistic in terms of the limit on what it could be supplied. So let's see how many they get (in fairness to other countries they don't have loads of spare tanks due to decades of non-investment in conventional arms).

Bizarre statements around this in the past week. The US excuse for not supplying tanks was literally to claim that theirs are a bit rubbish (high maintenance and gas guzzlers compared to Germany). Then 48hrs later they agree to send their 'crap' tanks to Ukraine.

I feel sorry for Germany who I think has behaved very well from day one and made arguably more sacrifice and changed more policy than anyone other than Poland and Czech/Slovaks when it comes to helping Ukraine. Germany was quite right to say 'we will supply tanks if the US does' and credit to the UK in building pressure by pledging tanks first.

France is Europe's largest arms supplier by a mile (2nd largest in the world I think) and I've yet to read a single line about pressure on France to supply tanks, or indeed to supply anything. It's like they are sulking that military aid is NATO focussed rather than EU focussed but the international community are giving Macron a free pass.

After a year waiting for better tanks (and a resulting higher death rate of Ukrainians during that year of indecision) I hope it is not another wasted year until the penny drops about the need for jets. Overall though, I still give the international support to Ukraine a solid 7/10 and thank goodness they have taken this decision as it keeps hope alive and should help the morale of the Ukranian armed forces.

The only positive really is that Russia is already at the point of pretty much exhausting their ability to escalate the conventional war any further with very little to show for it. The only thing they have left is to put the entire country on a war footing and revamp all industry towards warfare. Even then I'm not sure it will be enough. Short of nuclear weapons or some suddenly successful attack on Kiev, I don't see how the Russians can actually win this now. Ukraine should still be around in time for these tanks to be used if it hasn't been resolved diplomatically before then.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Yeah, eventually they'll scrap it and try and justify it by saying that with mandatory workplace pensions it's not needed

Not even the great British public can be daft enough to wear that.

The contributions that most people / employers pay into the Defined Contribution schemes that are ubiquitous in the private sector are way way short of what they need to be. Quite apart from the difficulties of generating returns over the past few years.

 

[BrokenWing]

Ukraine should still be around in time for these tanks to be used if it hasn't been resolved diplomatically before then.

Do you think that's an option?

Russian diplomacy seems to involve grabbing way more than you actually want and then "diplomatically" settling for what you wanted in the first place.

I imagine Ukraine will not only settle for giving up no territory, but also want Crimea returned too.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Do you think that's an option?

Russian diplomacy seems to involve grabbing way more than you actually want and then "diplomatically" settling for what you wanted in the first place.

I imagine Ukraine will not only settle for giving up no territory, but also want Crimea returned too.

I can't see either side beating the other in the next year as things stand so they will likely batter themselves into some sort of stalemate. If Ukraine can hold out long enough, I think that the sheer weight of resources NATO could pump into their forces would allow them to win but it will take a long time for all that to filter though. The NATO trained troops should be beginning to see battle about now and yet it seems the Russians are actually winning recently with their untrained and under equipped fodder, unless Ukraine are playing rope a dope and letting the Russians expend vast resources before launching a counter punch.

 

[McTallshort]

Almost a year later than Ukraine wanted and needed, but we've finally got there.

Russia unleashes missiles, drones at Ukraine after Kyiv secures tanks, 11 dead

Russia sent Ukrainian civilians racing for cover with a barrage of missiles and drones, killing at least 11 people according to officials, a day after Kyiv won Western pledges of dozens of battlefield tanks to try to repel Russia's invasion.

www.reuters.com

With anticipated 1 year delays in getting these supplied and soldiers trained place let's hope Ukraine is still in a position where it can actually make a difference with these (whereas if the decision had been taken swiftly these tanks would have been liberating territory this spring). Ukraine says it needs a minimum of 300, independent estimates say nearer 700 would be required to turn the tide but that Ukraine is being realistic in terms of the limit on what it could be supplied. So let's see how many they get (in fairness to other countries they don't have loads of spare tanks due to decades of non-investment in conventional arms).

Bizarre statements around this in the past week. The US excuse for not supplying tanks was literally to claim that theirs are a bit rubbish (high maintenance and gas guzzlers compared to Germany). Then 48hrs later they agree to send their 'crap' tanks to Ukraine.

I feel sorry for Germany who I think has behaved very well from day one and made arguably more sacrifice and changed more policy than anyone other than Poland and Czech/Slovaks when it comes to helping Ukraine. Germany was quite right to say 'we will supply tanks if the US does' and credit to the UK in building pressure by pledging tanks first.

France is Europe's largest arms supplier by a mile (2nd largest in the world I think) and I've yet to read a single line about pressure on France to supply tanks, or indeed to supply anything. It's like they are sulking that military aid is NATO focussed rather than EU focussed but the international community are giving Macron a free pass.

After a year waiting for better tanks (and a resulting higher death rate of Ukrainians during that year of indecision) I hope it is not another wasted year until the penny drops about the need for jets. Overall though, I still give the international support to Ukraine a solid 7/10 and thank goodness they have taken this decision as it keeps hope alive and should help the morale of the Ukranian armed forces.

Right, lots to unpick here.

Firstly the tanks that Britain, America and Poland/Germany are supplying are not necessarily better tanks. The Leopard 2s and Abrams in question are not the latest models and to be honest are very dated. The British Challengers are the latest model but use different ammunition to the Leopards and Abrams due to having a rifled barrel. All 3 use different ammo to the Soviet models.

Secondly the numbers are tiny. 14 Chally 2s, 30 Abrams, 14 Polish Leopards (14 in the number of vehicles in a Company/SQN) So that's currently enough for 4 Squadrons but with 3 different types you have to have 3 separate supply chains. Tanks use a huge amount of spare parts and having to source spare parts for 3 different models is going to be a massive headache, also they all have there own ammunition requirements which are completely different to the current Ukrainian ones. The point about the American tanks you made above is actually a fair one. The Abrams has a Gas Turbine engine that is a real gas guzzler and most militaries cannot sustain it in the field long enough to make it worth while, only the Yanks have the resources to do it. I believe the export model has a more standard diesel engine or they wouldn't sell any.

Thirdly Western tanks are bigger, Heavier and require a loader (crew of 4). A chally 2 for instance is 70 odd tonnes, a Ukrainian T-64B is about 45 tonnes. All the Ukrainian army heavy transport, bridging equipment and supply chains are geared up for smaller tanks with smaller crew (Soviet tanks have an auto loader crew of 3). It will take about 6 weeks for a trained commander, driver and gunner to convert from a T-64 to a western model with the need to train loaders from scratch and change SOPs for the rest of the crew.

So we have lots of small numbers of bigger, different tanks which are not really any better than the upgraded Russian ones (T-90s is arguably better than all 3). This could be a logistical nightmare for the Ukrainians and could cause them more problems than it solves. Logistics win wars more than weapons

The ideal situation would have been for Poland to give the Ukrainians some of its PT-91s and T-72MIR which are both based on the T-72 but have been upgraded to a much better standard than the models of Abrams and Leopards on offer and the crews could almost jump in an drive off in them but Poland are not going to give these away as they could find themselves next in line for Russian aggression. Giving away a few aging Leopard 2 is one thing but its not going to gut the core of its most capable models no matter how much they want Ukraine to win.

 

[Reiser99]

There is another option. Public support in Russia wanes so drastically that they pull out. This could combine with some kind of transition of power. This war has definitely weakened Putin's regime.

 

[McTallshort]

I can't see either side beating the other in the next year as things stand so they will likely batter themselves into some sort of stalemate. If Ukraine can hold out long enough, I think that the sheer weight of resources NATO could pump into their forces would allow them to win but it will take a long time for all that to filter though. The NATO trained troops should be beginning to see battle about now and yet it seems the Russians are actually winning recently with their untrained and under equipped fodder, unless Ukraine are playing rope a dope and letting the Russians expend vast resources before launching a counter punch.

Apparently by late spring the Russians will have completed a 2nd mobilisation and the Ukrainian's will be able to field most of their war booty they captured from the Russians last year. It will probably be at this point the most decisive battles will be fought.

 

[McTallshort]

There is another option. Public support in Russia wanes so drastically that they pull out. This could combine with some kind of transition of power. This war has definitely weakened Putin's regime.

Yeah wont happen

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

So we have lots of small numbers of bigger, different tanks which are not really any better than the upgraded Russian ones (T-90s is arguably better than all 3). This could be a logistical nightmare for the Ukrainians and could cause them more problems than it solves. Logistics win wars more than weapons.

Given what we have already seen of Russian military hardware, including the performance of their supposed elite armoured unit, is this really likely?

 

[General Melchett]

There is an election in Russia next year (not that it will be conducted fairly and squarely). Assuming Putin is seeking re-election he will want to show that he is winning and portray the nasty west as the bad guys to his domestic audience. He has sacked a fair few of his senior military personnel and yet he still seems to be very secure. If things don't go well this year and he issues a few more P45s then his current position of strength may not be as strong especially as there is bound to be a lot more casualties after the next mobilisation.

It's sad how he's prepared to make it a war of attrition and sacrifice hundreds of thousands of his own men just to extend the border a bit. The problem is that he has already declared the occupied territories as part of Russia and he won't back down and hand them back.

 

[McTallshort]

Given what we have already seen of Russian military hardware, including the performance of their supposed elite armoured unit, is this really likely?

Yes. Back in September I would have agreed with you but a change of command has pulled the Russians together. Their withdrawal from Kherson was very well executed and they are offensive in Donbass and gaining some success. Currently they seem to have the initiative and don't seem to be letting up.

Now the silver lining is that the commander they appointed to sort the mess out has just been replaced by the commander who dropped them in the **** in the first place and there is very open friction between the regular Russian army and the Wagner group but it does look like the Russians have sorted themselves out.

 

[The Seeker]

 

[Bada-Bing!]

No penalties for 'innocent' tax errors, HMRC boss says

Tory Party chairman Nadhim Zahawi is facing calls to resign, after it emerged he paid a penalty to HMRC.

www.bbc.co.uk

Another damming statement from HMRC boss on Zahawi. Carelessness = lack of reasonable care. This from a a former chancellor of the Exchequer albeit for a very short period.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

BBC News - Jacob Rees-Mogg to host GB News show

Jacob Rees-Mogg to host GB News show

The former business secretary will "debate the hot topics of the day", the broadcaster confirmed.

www.bbc.co.uk

As if any more evidence was needed that GB "news" is trying to position themselves as the Fox news of the UK.

 

[McTallshort]

Given what we have already seen of Russian military hardware, including the performance of their supposed elite armoured unit, is this really likely?

Just to add to my comment above. It's a long watch but very revealing.