A Political Thread pt. 2

[Ragey Erasmus]

******* Russia! If this wasn't deliberate then it's ******* incompetence of the highest level

Given how Russia has been acting recently, it could very easily be either. NATO really need to treat it as intentional though in case Russia is playing their stupid games of accidently on purpose doing something. Russia will need to either deny it or accept responsibility and claim it was an accident. I think Russia really does fear further NATO involvement though so I suspect it was incompetence and Russia will accept a humiliation admission of that over bringing NATO fully into the conflict.

That is unless Russia have decided to start escalating towards nuclear posturing and want to bring NATO in whilst denying any responsibility so they can claim to have an excuse to start launching nukes. I think that is beyond even the Russians though, they know it would be the end of them too.

 

[McTallshort]

Given how Russia has been acting recently, it could very easily be either. NATO really need to treat it as intentional though in case Russia is playing their stupid games of accidently on purpose doing something. Russia will need to either deny it or accept responsibility and claim it was an accident. I think Russia really does fear further NATO involvement though so I suspect it was incompetence and Russia will accept a humiliation admission of that over bringing NATO fully into the conflict.

That is unless Russia have decided to start escalating towards nuclear posturing and want to bring NATO in whilst denying any responsibility so they can claim to have an excuse to start launching nukes. I think that is beyond even the Russians though, they know it would be the end of them too.

I don't think Russia has control on what certain parts of the Russian security services do. This week on Russian propaganda they talked about strikes on Poland and Romania. Also the top lady in Russia's propaganda said this..

 

[Kiwiwomble]

i see Trump just announced his run

cant listen too it all but i think i just heard him claim to be responsible for the longest period without a war in american history...decades he said, is he claiming the time before becoming president?

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

yeah I guess it's official. I don't want go watch it but I'm sure there were lots of exaggerations in that speech.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

yeah I guess it's official. I don't want go watch it but I'm sure there were lots of exaggerations in that speech.

individual sentences make sense....but subsequent sentences dont seem to have relevance to each other....

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

yeah "I've gone decades . . . decades without a war" wow
I'm kind of amazed at how unfocused he is. as you say. it's one sentence about one thing and then boom, off somewhere else.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Not like he's not made unsubstantiated claims before - "done more for the black community than any POTUS with the exception of Abraham Lincoln" (err Lyndon Johnson - Civil rights act) , "least racist person you know (pull the other one), " most persecuted POTUS in history" (err JFK, Lincoln etc got assassinated).

Gets him in the news and winds up his detractors.

Edit: "I am the victim." (Only appeals to his MAGA base and their grievance mentality.)

 

[Which Tyler]

 

[Which Tyler]

Zelensky accuses Russia of missile attack on Nato member Poland

Polish PM calls urgent meeting of security and defence councils as Pentagon investigates

www.google.com

Well ****.

Poland missile ‘unlikely’ to have been fired from Russia, Biden says

US president says trajectory of missile suggests it was not launched by Russian forces waging war in Ukraine but will await results of investigation

www.theguardian.com

Which is why we wait on the evidence, rather than going off half-cock.

First it needs to be clarified whether these were Russian missiles or Ukrainian - from what I can tell it's still in doubt (as in, I'm seeing people and analysts I trust in stringent disagreement with each other).
If Russian, it needs to be clarified if it was accidental, "accidental" or deliberate.
If Russian then there's a good chance that article 4 will be triggered; but highly unlikely article 5 (that would, presumably, require deliberate and rather blatant targetting of Poland by Russia - even then, I'm not convinced A5 would be triggered over 2 dead people).
The most likely responses (if Russian) seem to me, that NATO send a couple of cruise missiles at Russian targets deep in occupied Ukraine (maybe even hitting the Kerch bridge or Sevastopol) &/ a marked increase in the number and type of weapons sent to Ukraine, certainly including anti-aircraft or anti-missile systems, and possibly even the ATACMS Ukraine have been asking for recently.
Oh, and I would expect air defence to be beefed up in Poland, Romania, Lithuania etc

 

[Saintjay]

Poland missile ‘unlikely’ to have been fired from Russia, Biden says

US president says trajectory of missile suggests it was not launched by Russian forces waging war in Ukraine but will await results of investigation

www.theguardian.com

Which is why we wait on the evidence, rather than going off half-cock.

First it needs to be clarified whether these were Russian missiles or Ukrainian - from what I can tell it's still in doubt (as in, I'm seeing people and analysts I trust in stringent disagreement with each other).
If Russian, it needs to be clarified if it was accidental, "accidental" or deliberate.
If Russian then there's a good chance that article 4 will be triggered; but highly unlikely article 5 (that would, presumably, require deliberate and rather blatant targetting of Poland by Russia - even then, I'm not convinced A5 would be triggered over 2 dead people).
The most likely responses (if Russian) seem to me, that NATO send a couple of cruise missiles at Russian targets deep in occupied Ukraine (maybe even hitting the Kerch bridge or Sevastopol) &/ a marked increase in the number and type of weapons sent to Ukraine, certainly including anti-aircraft or anti-missile systems, and possibly even the ATACMS Ukraine have been asking for recently.
Oh, and I would expect air defence to be beefed up in Poland, Romania, Lithuania etc

I'd have thought under no circumstances would Nato directly attack Russia in or out of the Ukraine. The U.S appear to be backing away from blaming Russia. I think a few Nato members would not have the spine for launching missiles at any Russian targets. It could escalate quickly and badly. The last two options are most certainly the best and most likely option.

 

[Which Tyler]

I'd have thought under no circumstances would Nato directly attack Russia in or out of the Ukraine. The U.S appear to be backing away from blaming Russia. I think a few Nato members would not have the spine for launching missiles at any Russian targets. It could escalate quickly and badly. The last two options are most certainly the best and most likely option.

I'm sure that if NATO thought that Russia had deliberately fired missiles at Poland, then they would respond with a greater number of missiles.

Accidental however? then maybe the same number of missiles, maybe none (but increased shipments to Ukraine, maybe an excuse to include longer-range stuff).
Not Russian? no response at all.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Lol.

Worst kept secret is out and apparently Ivanka doesn't want anything to do with it. Will he even get through the GOP primaries? Does De Santis have a connection with Trump's base if he runs? Anyone else but this Orange Buffoon.

On Dems side like Biden will announce he will run for a second term after not being completely wiped out in Mid terms and retaining control of Senate.

Neither should run IMO.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

G20: Xi accuses Trudeau of leaks to media about China-Canada relations

China's president was filmed rebuking his Canadian counterpart over alleged leaks of their meeting.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Trump running is great news for the Dems,
Either he gets the nom and gets trounced by the Dems because he's lost a ton of shine over the last two years, or he doesn't get the nom and throws a fit and runs as a third party and takes his base's vote away from (presumably) DeSantis and allows a Dem win

If it's a straight run between Biden and DeSantis I think DeSantis wins

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I'm amazed the Dems are running with Biden again. 10 years ago he could have been a good candidate but now he is clearly not all there. In another 2 years, he will be even further gone. In another 6? To put it bluntly, the guy may not even get to the end of a 2nd term. It's madness putting someone that old in charge.

 

[General Melchett]

I'll be amazed if Biden runs again. He doesn't even know he's President half the time and looks like he should be in a care home. It's too early to announce that he's not going for a second term given the mid terms were only last week and of course he'd be a lame duck from the moment he announces. I suspect he'll leave it late before making an announcement but the question in which Dem has the polling numbers to beat DeSantis or Chump. The initial plan may have been to groom Harris but not sure she has the numbers to win.

 

[General Melchett]

I'm no expert but is anyone else suspicious that the rocket that hit Poland used by Ukrainian air defence was Russian made? Given the vast amount of arms and weapons being supplied by the west for 10 months why are Ukraine still using Russian made weapons? Surely they would have been used up first at the start of the war? I do wonder if there is a cover up going on to prevent escalation.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

So Hunt is speaking right now, but he's reducing dividend allowance to £1k then £500, CGT allowance from £12.3k to £6k. Any of those with investment portfolios or shareholders in small companies take advantage of the current allowances this tax year.

Not good news for those earning £125k or more a year who start paying 45%. But fair enough. Just means them paying more into pension savings, if not a high income earner, to avoid paying top rate and retain personal allowance.

Income thresholds frozen to 2028 which basically means more peeps getting dragged into higher rates of tax when their pay increases.

 

[General Melchett]

So Hunt is speaking right now, but he's reducing dividend allowance to £1k then £500, CGT allowance from £12.3k to £6k. Any of those with investment portfolios or shareholders in small companies take advantage of the current allowances this tax year.

Not good news for those earning £125k or more a year who start paying 45%. But fair enough. Just means them paying more into pension savings, if not a high income earner, to avoid paying top rate and retain personal allowance.

Income thresholds frozen to 2028 which basically means more peeps getting dragged into higher rates of tax when their pay increases.

I'm watching it live. It could almost have been written by Labour although I imagine they'll question why landlords aren't paying more on rental income.

Guess higher rate earners pumping more into their pension schemes will be good for the stock market? My friend's ex does that to the minimise the child support he pays her. Scumbag.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Guess higher rate earners pumping more into their pension schemes will be good for the stock market?

And also pension funds buy Government bonds, which is one of the reasons why Kwasi's mini budget fcuked them and The country over.