2023 World Cup Draw

[ncurd]

That's really not true at all. World cup rugby is defined by big teams, middle teams and minnows. The winner of New Zealand vs Italy and England vs Uruguay is not going to be decided on form.

This is as oppose to the soccer world cup where big teams go home early all the time.

I still maintain we've only had three world cups that ended in predictability (clear favourite that won) and that 2003, 2011 & 2015

 

[Goodey]

I still maintain we've only had three world cups that ended in predictability (clear favourite that won) and that 2003, 2011 & 2015

I'm not saying that the semis and final are a foregone conclusion or anything. Form and play on the day will win those. But doing away with seedings because rugby world cup matches are 'on form' more than other sports is silly. Rugby has a far, far bigger gap between its top seeds and the second tier than most world sports, probably second only to cricket.

Imagine one group with NZ-SA-Ireland-France-Argentina, while another group is Georgia-USA-Samoa-Namibia-Uruguay? And then the USA got to the semi-finals by beating Romania. Would that be a huge achievement for them, or just something people had to explain was due to shitty groups?

 

[Not Eddie Jones]

I don't think that the World Cup could be improved by having new sides coming through so much as by the existing sides doing better. Sure, there have been only 5 nations contest the final, let's call them the RWC5 (England, France, Oz, SA, NZ ), but it's been far more of a closed shop than that. The RWC5 teams have only ever lost a knockout game to a non-RWC5 team twice. In 28 knockout games. Consider that for a moment: when an RWC5 team meets a team that is not in the RWC5 in a World Cup knockout game, they have won 26 out of 28 games. Only in 1987 when Wales beat England in the quarters and in 2019 when Wales beat France in the quarters have they lost.

The more you think about, the more mind-boggling it is. It's not like Wales, Ireland, Scotland and Argentina don't beat those teams inbetween World Cups, occasionally even in the group stages of a world cup, and yet when it comes to World Cup knockout stages, they crumble almost every time. In such games, Nz are 7-0, SA are 6-0, Aus 6-0, France 5-1 and England 2-1. The southern hemisphere big 3 have effectively had a bye to the next round every single time.

What I'd love to see is Ireland, Wales, Scotland and Argentina pulling their weight in the knockout stages, winning the odd one, knocking out a big gun and throwing the knockout stages wide open, as opposed to just the RWC5 all knocking each other out until one is left standing, as if it's just a mini-tournament comprised of 5 teams.

Couple of interesting tidbits in looking at these figures:
1. England have had only 3 knockout games against non-RWC5 teams (out of 17 world cup knockout games!), half the amount that Oz, France and SA have had and less than half that of NZ.
2. SA have only beaten a fellow southern hemisphere giant in the WC knockouts once: NZ in the final in 1995. Yet since then, they've won 2 World Cups, taking down Fiji, Argentina and England in 2007 and Japan, Wales and England in 2019.

The draw you get really does matter...

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

That's really not true at all. World cup rugby is defined by big teams, middle teams and minnows. The winner of New Zealand vs Italy and England vs Uruguay is not going to be decided on form.

This is as oppose to the soccer world cup where big teams go home early all the time.

I think we're agreeing! I wasn't meaning how teams had played over the last fortnight.

I still maintain we've only had three world cups that ended in predictability (clear favourite that won) and that 2003, 2011 & 2015

Definitely add 87 to that.

Of those NZ only squeaked 11 and extra time was needed in 03. You wouldn't necessarily bet your house on the eventual winner but in most cases you can say with conviction that the winner will be from a very small pool of possibles.

 

[ncurd]

Things I'd like to see for the next world cup

One side from the minnows emerge ala Japan possibly Fiji is the most likely side to come out but it'll be nice to see someone else take a scalp.

Japan to continue improving they might not take a scalp this time although they'll certainly be looking at that Arg game as a real chance.

Ireland to turn it around and actually turn up!

Wales to turn it around but not actually be good enough to beat us same with Australia.

Argentina to maintain standards they could get better but at the moment staying where they've been at world cups would be good for the game in general.

France after sometime are looking great again and thats good for rugby they haven't been contenders for a while.

After that sadly I think Italy are a lost cause not worthy on 6 nations entry and Scotland seam to have been in a holding pattern for two decades but I'd like to see the minnows carry on doing what they've been doing an getting slightly better the old absolute pastings bar one or two side have pretty much gone. And the group stages are baguely interesting now.

 

[Reiser99]

It's strange how similar some groups are to 2019.

Pool A: NZ are playing Italy and probably Namibia again as well as an Americas nation. Just swapped France with S.A really. So probably at least 3 teams the same. If it's also Canada then 4 teams the same.

Pool B: Ireland and Scotland together again also with probably Samoa or Tonga. If Samoa then again 3 teams the same. Also have Europe 2 and in the unlikely event Russia qualify again it would be 4 teams the same. Only difference is S.A instead of Japan.

Pool C: Already has 3 teams the same as pool D from 2019 with Australia, Wales and Fiji. Also got Europe 1 which will probably be Georgia so 4 teams the same and could also get Uruguay again hypothetically, which would be all 5.

Pool D: England and Argentina the same, which is 2 teams and joined by Japan. Last time it was Tonga and America, which is possible again.

Furthermore Pools and A & B are basically swapped around and pools C & D are swapped around. Depending on the group stages, could be some very similar knockout games as well.

 

[mdaclarke]

Pool A
New Zealand
France
Italy
Americas 1 (USA)
Africa 1 (Namibia)

New Zealand and France clear favourites. Both will be reasonably happy with their draw, Italy will be bitterly disappointed.

Pool B
South Africa
Ireland
Scotland
Asia Pacific 1 (Tonga)
Europe 2 (Russia)

South African draw pretty middle of the road, will be pleased to avoid Australia or France but disappointed not to draw Japan. Likewise with Scotland, pleased to avoid Argentina but disappointed not to get Fiji or Italy. Tough draw for Scotland and Ireland but not as bad as it could have been. .

Pool C
Wales
Australia
Fiji
Europe 1 (Georgia)
Qualifier Winner (Uruguay)

No surprises, see every other world cup since the dawn of the dinosaurs

Pool D
England
Japan
Argentina
Oceania 1 (Samoa)
America 2 (Canada)

Typical light touch for England although Argentina are probably the strongest of the Tier 3 teams. Japan probably the weakest of the Tier 2 teams.

In relation to QF and SF I wonder if they will mix it up a little bit with (A v C and D v B) or (B v C and A v D)

 

[Derpus]

From an Aussie perspective i suppose i should be happy with a relatively easy group but, seriously, could they have picked a less interesting draw? Rugby is genuinely run by morons.

 

[FrenchFan]

At the moment... but in 3 years time, who knows?

Exactly. The hype machine is on anyway. It's hilarious to hear les Bleus being bigged up 3 years in advance. They haven't won anything in a decade but we won't mind that. Laporte wants the Fra-NZ as the opening game. Talk about piling on the pressure. Let's see how many 6N they win before. If Galthie carries on with his kicking strategy we saw in November, he won't win many.

 

[Not Eddie Jones]

Exactly. The hype machine is on anyway. It's hilarious to hear les Bleus being bigged up 3 years in advance. They haven't won anything in a decade but we won't mind that. Laporte wants the Fra-NZ as the opening game. Talk about piling on the pressure. Let's see how many 6N they win before. If Galthie carries on with his kicking strategy we saw in November, he won't win many.

I'd love to see France become a great team again, for me they're our biggest rivals, but I must admit that I too am somewhat sceptical of the hype they've been getting. Most rugby sites have already anointed them as the winners of RWC 2023, so no other teams need show up. But what have they actually done so far? They've won no trophies this year. They won the same number of games as Ireland this year and no-one's hyping them. They've got lots of talented players, but then they always have had, that was never a problem. They've been better in attack with some truly outstanding tries, but their defence is still poor (despite the Edwards hype), ranking 5th in the 6N in points allowed and tries allowed, ahead of only Italy. And there are still all the club-v-country issues and questions about the fitness of Top 14 players that won't go away.

When France win the 6N and start regularly beating southern hemisphere sides, I'll be ready to believe, but until then they're just another young team with potential who have achieved nothing, and history is littered with those. It's not like they've got an easy ride in the upcoming 6N, with England at Twickenham (haven't won there since 2007) and Ireland in Dublin (haven't won there since 2011).

As I say, I'd love it if France really are back, there's just not a lot of evidence to go on at the moment.

 

[FrenchFan]

I'd love to see France become a great team again, for me they're our biggest rivals, but I must admit that I too am somewhat sceptical of the hype they've been getting. Most rugby sites have already anointed them as the winners of RWC 2023, so no other teams need show up. But what have they actually done so far? They've won no trophies this year. They won the same number of games as Ireland this year and no-one's hyping them. They've got lots of talented players, but then they always have had, that was never a problem. They've been better in attack with some truly outstanding tries, but their defence is still poor (despite the Edwards hype), ranking 5th in the 6N in points allowed and tries allowed, ahead of only Italy. And there are still all the club-v-country issues and questions about the fitness of Top 14 players that won't go away.

When France win the 6N and start regularly beating southern hemisphere sides, I'll be ready to believe, but until then they're just another young team with potential who have achieved nothing, and history is littered with those. It's not like they've got an easy ride in the upcoming 6N, with England at Twickenham (haven't won there since 2007) and Ireland in Dublin (haven't won there since 2011).

As I say, I'd love it if France really are back, there's just not a lot of evidence to go on at the moment.

I agree with all. I'm not buying the Edwards hype either. There's 7 or 8 Toulouse players in the group. Don't remember seeing Edwards at our academy passing on his skills. Don't know where our players learnt to tackle and defend. Mystery.
The jury is still very much out on Galthie. He's picked a good group so far. We have depth in many positions. But some have fallen by the wayside like Macalou. And les Bleus still are very much a penalty giving machine who average 10 to 12 penalties per game. Not acceptable.
Galthie has got caught in the hype already. He's a very good strategist of the game but he's an arrogant prick as well. Last 6N before the Scotland game he was all over the papers waffling on about the GS he was about to win but lost for failing to prepare the group. We will know soon enough.

 

[Not Eddie Jones]

I agree with all. I'm not buying the Edwards hype either. There's 7 or 8 Toulouse players in the group. Don't remember seeing Edwards at our academy passing on his skills. Don't know where our players learnt to tackle and defend. Mystery.
The jury is still very much out on Galthie. He's picked a good group so far. We have depth in many positions. But some have fallen by the wayside like Macalou. And les Bleus still are very much a penalty giving machine who average 10 to 12 penalties per game. Not acceptable.
Galthie has got caught in the hype already. He's a very good strategist of the game but he's an arrogant prick as well. Last 6N before the Scotland game he was all over the papers waffling on about the GS he was about to win but lost for failing to prepare the group. We will know soon enough.

I'd forgotten about their discipline issues. France have been a penalty machine for years and as you say, there's no sign of that changing. Their discipline cost them the ANC final, though that issue was lost among the hype about France B pushing England A all the way. I remember when England had similar discipline issues under Martin Johnson and Stuart Lancaster, it was so frustrating as a fan to watch them constantly giving games away with a ton of penalties.

But who knows? Galthie could turn out to be the man France need. He could be the man to get the players fit, sort out their discipline, sort out the club-v-country issues, sort out their defence, win the 6N, beat NZ, SA and Oz and win a world cup. After all, no-one predicted SA would win the world cup when Erasmus took over a shambles of a team two years out from the tournament.

 

[FrenchFan]

But who knows? Galthie could turn out to be the man France need. He could be the man to get the players fit, sort out their discipline, sort out the club-v-country issues, sort out their defence, win the 6N, beat NZ, SA and Oz and win a world cup. After all, no-one predicted SA would win the world cup when Erasmus took over a shambles of a team two years out from the tournament.

He won't sort out the club country issue on his own, out of his league and in fairness not in his remit. Fitness has got better. Discipline is a tough one but not impossible. If he sorts it out he will have turned a corner.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

Well running it a million times, still a 1/16 chance any given year. Result was 6.2401%

Here's my code snippet, note this website removed the tabs

Yeah, was going to say this. The past doesn't affect the future, so it will always be 1/16.

Your 1/4096 are relevant to the question "what is the chance these three teams will be in the same pool in each of the three next world cups?"

But probably the more interesting way to look at it is, given the World Cup had been drawn eleven times, "out of eleven draws what is the chance the same three teams will be together three times". For any given 3 world cups, the chance is 1/4096. But there are 165 ways of collecting together 3 world cups in a sample of eleven draws. Therefore the probability we are looking for is 165/4096 = 4 % approximately

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

I'd love to see France become a great team again, for me they're our biggest rivals, but I must admit that I too am somewhat sceptical of the hype they've been getting. Most rugby sites have already anointed them as the winners of RWC 2023, so no other teams need show up. But what have they actually done so far? They've won no trophies this year. They won the same number of games as Ireland this year and no-one's hyping them. They've got lots of talented players, but then they always have had, that was never a problem. They've been better in attack with some truly outstanding tries, but their defence is still poor (despite the Edwards hype), ranking 5th in the 6N in points allowed and tries allowed, ahead of only Italy. And there are still all the club-v-country issues and questions about the fitness of Top 14 players that won't go away.

When France win the 6N and start regularly beating southern hemisphere sides, I'll be ready to believe, but until then they're just another young team with potential who have achieved nothing, and history is littered with those. It's not like they've got an easy ride in the upcoming 6N, with England at Twickenham (haven't won there since 2007) and Ireland in Dublin (haven't won there since 2011).

As I say, I'd love it if France really are back, there's just not a lot of evidence to go on at the moment.

No, but their B team has drawn there.....

Fra are clearly targeting 2023. Maybe a bit all eggs in one basket, but so far they seem to be doing everything right in working towards that target. Of course there will be bumps on the road, but they have the opportunities to make those mistakes this season and next rather than on the biggest stage.

They've not won anything, but how would you have been looking at it if they'd won the GS as they almost certainly would have done but for that punch?

Fra are a team of possibilities and strength in depth who will have many players coming towards their peaks in 23. I'm not hanging medals around their necks, but I'm excited about what they might achieve. I just wish I felt the same way about Eng who will clearly need some regeneration in some key positions and tactics before 23.

 

[mdaclarke]

He won't sort out the club country issue on his own, out of his league and in fairness not in his remit. Fitness has got better. Discipline is a tough one but not impossible. If he sorts it out he will have turned a corner.

This is the difference between France and South Africa. in South Africa Rassie oversees everything and the clubs are subservient to the national teams.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

This is the difference between France and South Africa. in South Africa Rassie oversees everything and the clubs are subservient to the national teams.

its pretty similar in NZ, NZR has but a big old buffer between the "independent" unions and the international game with Super Rugby...which the own the five franchises

 

[Not Eddie Jones]

They've not won anything, but how would you have been looking at it if they'd won the GS as they almost certainly would have done but for that punch?

Coulda, shoulda, woulda. Scotland aren't exactly a pushover these days, so there's no guarantee France would have won if they'd had 15 men on the pitch. We could just as easily say that England would have won the ANC Final in normal time easily if Owen Farrell had kicked his goals. He didn't, so they didn't. It is what it is.

It's funny how so many fans are down on England at the moment. I said at the time that winning the ANC Final by coming from behind and scoring at the death felt like a massive step forwards, and that was echoed by Farrell and co in The Next Level video of the final, saying last year they would have lost that game. I'm really happy where England are at three years out from the world cup with still a pretty young squad that's already got experience of a world cup final, is in the habit of winning trophies and have played nowhere near their potential with 3 years to go.

 

[Derpus]

England seem to have played to their potential? South Africa showed that if you slow the tempo, play percentages and muscle up England have exactly 0 ability to play with the ball creatively.

Brilliant defensive side and the rush defense definitely stifles any team looking to play. But once you force them to play Farrell and Ford appear to be pretty limited.

I also reckon refs will start to target the 'rush defence', which is really just a team being uniformely offside consistently. Most teams have picked up a form of it now, and it's really stifling play across the board. One of the major issues in world rugby at the moment.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Yeah, was going to say this. The past doesn't affect the future, so it will always be 1/16.

Your 1/4096 are relevant to the question "what is the chance these three teams will be in the same pool in each of the three next world cups?"

But probably the more interesting way to look at it is, given the World Cup had been drawn eleven times, "out of eleven draws what is the chance the same three teams will be together three times". For any given 3 world cups, the chance is 1/4096. But there are 165 ways of collecting together 3 world cups in a sample of eleven draws. Therefore the probability we are looking for is 165/4096 = 4 % approximately

There are 3 types of people in the thread, those who like numbers and those who don't

Coulda, shoulda, woulda. Scotland aren't exactly a pushover these days, so there's no guarantee France would have won if they'd had 15 men on the pitch. We could just as easily say that England would have won the ANC Final in normal time easily if Owen Farrell had kicked his goals. He didn't, so they didn't. It is what it is.

It's funny how so many fans are down on England at the moment. I said at the time that winning the ANC Final by coming from behind and scoring at the death felt like a massive step forwards, and that was echoed by Farrell and co in The Next Level video of the final, saying last year they would have lost that game. I'm really happy where England are at three years out from the world cup with still a pretty young squad that's already got experience of a world cup final, is in the habit of winning trophies and have played nowhere near their potential with 3 years to go.

I disagree, a team with as many caps as England should simply not be struggling as much as they are. The only thing I did like when the game went into extra time is that England were able to stay squeaky clean when the French were within range of a penalty (or as the non-English would say, derr ref paid off by England not penalise them). It's just frustrating that if we can clearly play without conceding penalties when we need to, why don't we do it more? It's not like our defence suffered as a result.

England seem to have played to their potential? South Africa showed that if you slow the tempo, play percentages and muscle up England have exactly 0 ability to play with the ball creatively.

Brilliant defensive side and the rush defense definitely stifles any team looking to play. But once you force them to play Farrell and Ford appear to be pretty limited.

I also reckon refs will start to target the 'rush defence', which is really just a team being uniformely offside consistently. Most teams have picked up a form of it now, and it's really stifling play across the board. One of the major issues in world rugby at the moment.

A pretty fair point apart from how many teams have you seen win after losing the forwards battle and being unable to muscle their way anywhere? The idea of sides being outmuscled and winning through great creativity is the exception, not the norm. Creativity is built off gaps in play, turnovers or from front foot ball. It's very rare that a team that is going backwards against a defence that is well organised is able to overcome that with superior creativity. That's hardly an England thing, just look at what happened to New Zealand in the semis. Nobody would say NZ lack creativity yet they would have been nilled if not for an overthrow on an English lineout. If arguably the most creative team in the world can't use it to overcome being bullied then I think it's not fair to use this as any sort of criticism of teams.