[2019 Six Nations] Wales v Ireland (16/03/2019)

[munstermuffin]

People (including us Welsh) are expecting a big performance from Ireland who have been pretty undercooked thus far this tourney... I'm also expecting an improvement in the Welsh attack as, prior to this 6N our attacking play was developing quite nicely... has to click at some point and Saturday would be a timely occasion.

Ireland is a hard 1. We are over hyped in terms of form based on a performance against a terrible French team.
Like don't get me wrong we are capable of winning and performing. It isn't a coaching issue or personnel issue just poor form by too many key players. We will see Saturday where we truly are in current terms.

Like Sexton played well vs France but was it they were so poor. So his and Murray's form is still out to be decided.
To be fair all the pack have played well throughout. Sean O'Brien was probably the only real poor performer and the fact he was singled out may benefit him as a boot up the hole.
The back have been poor due to 9 and 10 being terrible for 80% and looking like poor club players as opposed to worldclass.
Our centres have been hit and miss excluding Ringrose. Farrell actually performed well but is a 13 and not at level of Ring rose but the constant changing there didn't help.
The back 3 bar the horror of Henshaw at 15 vs England have been ok too.

The problem really lies in structures and being poorly executed by the 9-10-12-13 axis. And they all deserve equal blame.

 

[bushytop]

Ireland is a hard 1. We are over hyped in terms of form based on a performance against a terrible French team.
Like don't get me wrong we are capable of winning and performing. It isn't a coaching issue or personnel issue just poor form by too many key players. We will see Saturday where we truly are in current terms.

Like Sexton played well vs France but was it they were so poor. So his and Murray's form is still out to be decided.
To be fair all the pack have played well throughout. Sean O'Brien was probably the only real poor performer and the fact he was singled out may benefit him as a boot up the hole.
The back have been poor due to 9 and 10 being terrible for 80% and looking like poor club players as opposed to worldclass.
Our centres have been hit and miss excluding Ringrose. Farrell actually performed well but is a 13 and not at level of Ring rose but the constant changing there didn't help.
The back 3 bar the horror of Henshaw at 15 vs England have been ok too.

The problem really lies in structures and being poorly executed by the 9-10-12-13 axis. And they all deserve equal blame.

I'm not saying that Ireland's form is bad, merely that by the virtue of winning 13 tests on the trot... even the most one-eyed fan would have to say Wales form is somewhat better at the moment. In the same way I wasn't saying our quality was terrible, just that Ireland has a lot (like 'a lot a lot') of world class players who have achieved success at every level... so again even the most one-eyed fan would have to admit the level of utmost quality lay with the men in green.

Still... none of that will necessarily matter on Saturday.

 

[munstermuffin]

I'm not saying that Ireland's form is bad, merely that by the virtue of winning 13 tests on the trot... even the most one-eyed fan would have to say Wales form is somewhat better at the moment. In the same way I wasn't saying our quality was terrible, just that Ireland has a lot (like 'a lot a lot') of world class players who have achieved success at every level... so again even the most one-eyed fan would have to admit the level of utmost quality lay with the men in green.

Still... none of that will necessarily matter on Saturday.

Oh I know you aren't saying they are off form but we are off. And yes Wales are on a great run. You are spot on there though in the hunger levels play a part. How many of these Welsh boys have a 6Nations medal never mind a slam.
Like this poor tournament may be best thing to happen Ireland's World Cup ambitions.

 

[bushytop]

Oh I know you aren't saying they are off form but we are off. And yes Wales are on a great run. You are spot on there though in the hunger levels play a part. How many of these Welsh boys have a 6Nations medal never mind a slam.
Like this poor tournament may be best thing to happen Ireland's World Cup ambitions.

I think Ireland will have a strong World Cup regardless of the result on Saturday. I think they're set to play the Boks at the QF stage (if everything goes as is expected) and I would expect you to win that and break you're QF hoodoo.

 

[Groundhog]

Beirne and O'Brien are set to come into the team with Kearney back at 15 if fit says the 42.
This is really the metric we can measure the Six Nations on. Our loss to England was out of character and we haven't played well since, but not hugely concerning in isolation. If we can beat Wales away from home it will measure the tournament as a success for us I think, championship or no championship. If we lose we'll have fallen short on the two fixtures that were ever likely to give us much trouble if we're being honest. If we can pick our best team as it stands right now I give us the edge, but Wales could blast us with intensity the like of which we only managed to find for 50 or so minutes in this tournament.

 

[bushytop]

Beirne and O'Brien are set to come into the team with Kearney back at 15 if fit says the 42.
This is really the metric we can measure the Six Nations on. Our loss to England was out of character and we haven't played well since, but not hugely concerning in isolation. If we can beat Wales away from home it will measure the tournament as a success for us I think, championship or no championship. If we lose we'll have fallen short on the two fixtures that were ever likely to give us much trouble if we're being honest. If we can pick our best team as it stands right now I give us the edge, but Wales could blast us with intensity the like of which we only managed to find for 50 or so minutes in this tournament.

Pretty objective outlook... I think the home advantage might 'just' swing it to being 50-50 though.

 

[Leinster Fan]

He has, just not in the 6 nations.

France - 2015, RWC
Wales - 2015, RWC warm up

And not an international obviously but there was also this:

 

[oj121]

I hear this, but England could play when they came a few weeks ago. And they were supposedly better in all areas of play. And then the match happened!

I think if Wales play with that same intensity, same commitment, they can do it.

I never thought they were better in all areas. I rated our backrow and felt the front row was equal. Also felt Wales had a better backline outside of the half backs and excluding the May anomoly.

 

[The5thOfficial]

I never thought they were better in all areas. I rated our backrow and felt the front row was equal. Also felt Wales had a better backline outside of the half backs and excluding the May anomoly.

Oh for sure! My point really was that come match day, a game like this, its all bets off because its hard to call.

 

[ncurd]

Before the opening weekend you'd be placing a bet that the team playing for the GS would be Ireland (possibly Wales in a straight up shootout). Honestly both their games against England aside you'd still put that as the most likely result.

Ireland to edge but it will incredibly close with less than a score in it and make everyone nervous as hell.

Remember Ireland all of England is routing for you!

 

[Jockstap]

Dan Leavy's finally back and I'd throw him straight back in there, guys a big game player and a warrior, best 7 we have.

 

[dullonien]

I really hope we can show a little more in attack v's Ireland. On paper the backline is full of attacking talent, with Hadleigh being the main exception due to his lack of pace. However even then, he's a typical NZer who's fully capable of putting others into space with his excellent basics. If we add Tipuric to that as one of the finest attacking forwards currently playing, then we shouldn't be commenting about Wales' lack of attack!

Don't get me wrong, I'd be happy to beat Ireland in a similar way to how we beat England, with disciplined attritional play; however I'd hate to see us lose without firing a proper shot.

At the moment we seem to be struggling to get the balance right between defense and attack. In the summer our attack was looking pretty handy, but our defense had dropped off a little from it's usual high standards. Part of the problem may be the faltering lineout. It's often the favoured platform to unleash set attacking moves, but more often than not this championship we've either lost our attacking lineouts, struggled to get clean possession, or had to revert to safe front ball to be safe. We really need an improvement in this area v Ireland.

 

[oj121]

I dont think we can work Ireland down through attrition like we did England as I dont think recycling the ball will come easy.

I genuinely cant think of a game plan other that run at Sexton constantly and try and get at a laboured Murray....

I can see a yellow or 2 this weekend though. Also worried about Beirne playing as I think the guy is sensational!

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

He has, just not in the 6 nations.

France - 2015, RWC
Wales - 2015, RWC warm up

Wales - 2019, RWC warm up

*is still annoyed at Schmidt not going hell for leather for a bonus point in Murrayfield*

 

[Jimbo]

I hear this, but England could play when they came a few weeks ago. And they were supposedly better in all areas of play. And then the match happened!

I think if Wales play with that same intensity, same commitment, they can do it.

I don't really know how to put this without appearing to discredit the Welsh performance, they played very well and did what they needed to do on the day, however England got their tactics all wrong for some reason when the territory kicking game didn't work we decided more kicking was the answer and continued to fail miserably the Welsh victory for me was a combination of their very good defence and England's inability to even try and change the game plan, I think Ireland are a bit smarter than that and will offer that air tight defence more problems than England were able to, I would argue Scotland did but were unable to capitalise on it.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Were Ireland training today? Leavy was having a coffee with a few Ster bros in Dublin so if they were I'd guess that's him out.

 

[Jockstap]

Kinsella has the Irish team

Possible Ireland team v Wales:

15. Rob Kearney
14. Keith Earls
13. Garry Ringrose
12. Bundee Aki
11. Jacob Stockdale
10. Johnny Sexton
9. Conor Murray

1. Cian Healy
2. Rory Best (captain)
3. Tadhg Furlong
4. Tadhg Beirne
5. James Ryan
6. Peter O'Mahony
7. Sean O'Brien
8. CJ Stander

 

[munstermuffin]

Were Ireland training today? Leavy was having a coffee with a few Ster bros in Dublin so if they were I'd guess that's him out.

No Wednesday is there day off. Did light session in gym in am

 

[ThebigARena]

Interestingly the bookies have us slight odds on favourites at 4/5 with Ireland currently 11/10.There really is nothing in it.

With that in mind I'll agree with the bookies and say we will edge Ireland out . Home advantage and a GS on the line. Historically we've been efficient in this position.

That second half performance against Scotland won't cut it though and we can't play that bad against Ireland or we will be punished .

Wales by 7

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Ireland (possible) v Wales: Rob Kearney; Keith Earls, Garry Ringrose, Bundee Aki, Jacob Stockdale; Johnny Sexton, Conor Murray; Cian Healy, Rory Best, Tadhg Furlong, James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne, Peter O'Mahony, Seán O'Brien, CJ Stander.

Replacements: Niall Scannell, David Kilcoyne, John Ryan, Ultan Dillane, Jack Conan, Kieran Marmion, Jack Carty, Jordan Larmour.

Thornley's prediction with bench. Would have liked Joey there, Jonathan will have to play 80.