[2018 Super Rugby] Round 4: Jaguares vs. Waratahs (10/03/2018)

[TRF_heineken]

Venue: Estadio Jose Amalfitani​

Time: 23:40 CAT (SA, GMT+2)​

 

[unrated]

I predicted that the Jaguares would win this game by 5 on Superbru. Its a risky call especially since the Waratahs has won the Stormers and drew the Sharks in Durban.
But the Waratahs have now travleled between three continents. Another factor that i considered was the three losses of the Jags so far. I think they will really target this game at home. Its a long shot yes but you have to make risky decisions.
speaking of risky decisions. i'm now at risk of a dislike by @Zero as my prediction does not fall in line with mainstream sentiment.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

If you don't mind me asking, how? What sort of contest do you envision?

I see 3 things going on and all of them go against us.
First, given how our back 3 are defending and the tah's backs, i dont see how we can win. We might have the ball a bit more, but it's not like we are deadly once we have it, and i dont see how boffelli, delguy and tuculet could stop any mildly threatening play from Foulau & Co. I just don't.
Second, momentum: they are doing good this season, we are not, temperamental as we are, that goes against us.
Third, pressure. Jaguares are playing at home and we are not playing against a NZ powerhouse nor against the Lions in J'burg. They are playing against a team that ended up 16 out of 18 teams last season. Our recent history has showed us clear signs of us cracking under the slightest amount of pressure. Tahs last two games were won/drawn in the last 3 minutes which suggests they are quite ok with it.

 

[unrated]

If you don't mind me asking, how? What sort of contest do you envision?

I see 3 things going on and all of them go against us.
First, given how our back 3 are defending and the tah's backs, i dont see how we can win. We might have the ball a bit more, but it's not like we are deadly once we have it, and i dont see how boffelli, delguy and tuculet could stop any mildly threatening play from Foulau & Co. I just don't.
Second, momentum: they are doing good this season, we are not, temperamental as we are, that goes against us.
Third, pressure. Jaguares are playing at home and we are not playing against a NZ powerhouse nor against the Lions in J'burg. They are playing against a team that ended up 16 out of 18 teams last season. Our recent history has showed us clear signs of us cracking under the slightest amount of pressure. Tahs last two games were won/drawn in the last 3 minutes which suggests they are quite ok with it.

A close contest. I don't think there is much between these two teams especially in Argentina with the traveling factor. Yes i note your back three worries but they simply need to outscore the Waratahs even if the game ends 45-42 or 15-14. With the Stormers vs Highlanders game each team basically scored every time they entered the opposition half (in the first half).There is some good attackers in super rugby ranging from big ball carriers to those with crazy stepping and offloading skills. Event the staunchest defences concede tries, therefore just make sure you score more than them. Easier said than done though i know.
The pressure is exactly another factor why i favour the Jags. It has been building with their failure to win. You would like to think that pressure for international players would motivate a better performance.

Ps. If im wrong about this then i would have meant that i underestimated the Waratahs for three weeks in a row. The last two weeks i called victories for the Stormers and Sharks which obviously didn't happen. Im not yet convinced that it was something more than a fluke so if they perform well this weekend then my opinion of the Waratahs will drastically change for their season.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Pleasantly proved wrong so far!

 

[saulan]

26-0 in 20 minutes, what is going on? I also predicted Jaguares to win this one, but was expecting something more like a three point margin. Let's hope they don't fade away in the second half or that discipline doesn't cost them.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

33-7 1H.
5-21 2H.

38-28 final score.
I do not understand how this is not THE topic of conversation for us. It's been the same for over 2 years. I refuse to believe ALL teams have a better bench, considering how we are a single team vs other nations spreading their national teams in 4-5 teams.

We had an unreal first 20 minutes and the tahs went out for broke at the end of 1H which cost them another 7 points (intercept).
If we can play like the first 20 more consitently we will give the best a run for their money.
If we play like the 2H we will lose every single game.

 

[petite]

I'm going loco! great first halve.pity for the last two try's conceded one would have been OK. it was coming. the second kind of blowing it in the end.

 

[FNS]

Good win. As Cruz said it alarming that in the last 20 min we get always hammered.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

At least only one of the tries the Jaguares conceded seemed incredibly soft. This is the sort of game why I won't judge Ledesma until mid-season.

Waratahs do look half decent this year too with Beale. Hard to predict who the top Oz side will be.

 

[saulan]

Waratahs do look half decent this year too with Beale. Hard to predict who the top Oz side will be.

Really? To me it seems like the Rebels are establishing themselves as clear favourites for the Australian top spot.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Really? To me it seems like the Rebels are establishing themselves as clear favourites for the Australian top spot.

Yup, the Rebels are certainly putting their hand up to take that spot.

 

[petite]

..and did you notice we didn't recibe an interception try.. we scored one. maybe times are a changin'

 

[Derpus]

At least only one of the tries the Jaguares conceded seemed incredibly soft. This is the sort of game why I won't judge Ledesma until mid-season.

Waratahs do look half decent this year too with Beale. Hard to predict who the top Oz side will be.

Worst Waratahs side in years and years.

As usual, A class backline but behind a pack scraping D-'s.