The only teams they've beaten away from home in the last two seasons are Leicester, Ospreys, Kings, Cheetahs and Zebre. I don't buy the half strength versus full strength argument as Munster have 24 full internationals in their squad. A half strength squad would still have 12 internationals! They're simply not performing when they leave their home province.
I'd like to see Munster win in Gloucester, just wouldn't be confident based on their away form the last couple of seasons and also their poor shape in attack. They were nowhere near good enough in both back to back games against Castres.