A fair bit of interesting feedback on betting in this tournament. Some of it accurate and I'll take on board, other bits not so much.
Look Credit to Ireland, they destroyed Argentina in that first half an hour. I didn't see it coming and I did lose bit of money on it backing Argentina. Argentina had played some good expansive rugby against France and South Africa topping a tricky pool, and I thought they'd be able to attack Ireland out wide like what happened in Cardiff in the WC QF. I didn't rate Ireland too highly before yesterday for a few reasons. Their win in wet conditions over New Zealand was caused by a dominant pack and set piece, I thought Argentina would match them up front. Their win over Wales seemed to me to be more a case of Wales stopping playing after 25 minutes rather than Ireland doing anything spectacular. I was wrong, Ireland played well and are clearly a strong team, I lost £500, but that's the life of a gambler.
I won £1000 on backing England to beat SA by 7 or more points. We didn't play well against Australia, but we've been dominant throughout the group stage, and I watched all three of South Africa's group games and didn't think much of them. They don't even have the strong pack they had in previous years. England were brilliant and we should now go on to win the championship.
As for my original claim that England would be 85-90% favourites in a final against Ireland, this was probably a bit too bold. But I didn't foresee Ireland winning by 30 points against Argentina. No one did, they were 2 point underdogs at most bookies as you guys pointed out. Because of Ireland's strong performance they're 20-25% underdogs, at 3/1 for the win, and about 12 point underdogs.
I'm not saying Ireland can't win the final. It's pretty unlikely though, they've relied on bullying weaker packs and on Saturday they won't be able to do that. I'm not some biased English patriot, I'm just telling things how I see it. For example I think Ireland are a great pick at 10/3 to win the deciding test in Port Elizabeth on Saturday, and England are a rubbish bet at Even Money to win the third test against Australia.
J