2016 World Rugby U20 Championship

[ratsapprentice]

Mallinder could move to 15, or Marchant could move onto the wing (I don't rate that Perkins lad at all).

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

Mallinder could move to 15, or Marchant could move onto the wing (I don't rate that Perkins lad at all).

If Marchant moved out would you shift Mallinder or Williams to 13?

I think it would be better to move Mallinder to FB and put our current 15 onto the wing over Perkins. No point moving Marchant out of position.

 

[Ludders93]

I was pretty confident before the tournament but now I'm almost certain England will win this tournament. New Zealand were default favourites but their team this year was evidently weak. Lost to Australia before the tournament, no super rugby stars. England should've won last year's final in truth. Akira Iouane and Tevita Li were the star players though. No such luck this year. The boks played some decent rugby in the 2nd half today but aren't great, and the Irish + Arg are average too. I reckon we'll beat SA by 10 then Arg in the final by 15

 

[Groundhog]

I was pretty confident before the tournament but now I'm almost certain England will win this tournament. New Zealand were default favourites but their team this year was evidently weak. Lost to Australia before the tournament, no super rugby stars. England should've won last year's final in truth. Akira Iouane and Tevita Li were the star players though. No such luck this year. The boks played some decent rugby in the 2nd half today but aren't great, and the Irish + Arg are average too. I reckon we'll beat SA by 10 then Arg in the final by 15

Yeah England lost to Ireland and Scotland in the 6 Nations this year and we're the average team. Christ wept son.

 

[Peat]

Yeah England lost to Ireland and Scotland in the 6 Nations this year and we're the average team. Christ wept son.

The team and coach we have now bears relatively little resemblance to the team and coach we had in the 6N.

That said, serious injuries to Brophy-Clews and (maybe) Walker knock us a bit back to the 6N state of things.

I might be backing Ireland for this if not for Johnston's injury. McPhillips looks more like a 10 now, but...

 

[Ludders93]

Yeah England lost to Ireland and Scotland in the 6 Nations this year and we're the average team. Christ wept son.

I didn't mean it in a rude way, Ireland have done brilliant to win all 3 games in a tough group, but could you see them beating England in the final?

We might find out. The bookmakers are seldom wrong. They're pricing Argentina as 55% favourites with Ireland at 45% in the semi final. England are 70% favourites with the boks at 30%.

I suspect if England played Ireland in the final England could be as strong as 85-90% favourites. England always step it up at this stage. Last year we lost to France in the group but played brilliant against the Boks in the SF and should've beaten NZ in the final. We've done historically very well in this tournament. The irish have done nothing. Their win over NZ was a case of a big pack dominating in atrocious conditions. They won't be able to do that to England. I suspect Argentina will put them out but even if they scrape through they have no chance against England

 

[Groundhog]

I didn't mean it in a rude way, Ireland have done brilliant to win all 3 games in a tough group, but could you see them beating England in the final?

We might find out. The bookmakers are seldom wrong. They're pricing Argentina as 55% favourites with Ireland at 45% in the semi final. England are 70% favourites with the boks at 30%.

I suspect if England played Ireland in the final England could be as strong as 85-90% favourites. England always step it up at this stage. Last year we lost to France in the group but played brilliant against the Boks in the SF and should've beaten NZ in the final. We've done historically very well in this tournament. The irish have done nothing. Their win over NZ was a case of a big pack dominating in atrocious conditions. They won't be able to do that to England. I suspect Argentina will put them out but even if they scrape through they have no chance against England

Well the bookmakers were very wrong about both the NZ and Wales games but you're right we will see. I think it's fair to say England have way improved since the 6N but so have Ireland. They're unrecognisabke against the team they were a few months ago. England are not the team you think they are either. I've seen them and they're decent but that's about it. England as 85-90% favourites? That's based on.... Performances in an easier pool? The grand total of one game you won in the 6N this year? Huge change since then but they're more useful indicators than what your teams have done in the past. I would call England slim favourites if we were to play but this is under 20 rugby. Results in prior years mean absolutely nothing in a competition where players graduate beyond the age grade after at most two years.

 

[Maverick1987]

The team and coach we have now bears relatively little resemblance to the team and coach we had in the 6N.

That said, serious injuries to Brophy-Clews and (maybe) Walker knock us a bit back to the 6N state of things.

I might be backing Ireland for this if not for Johnston's injury. McPhillips looks more like a 10 now, but...

As far as I'm aware we didn't have Mallinder, Marchant and Williams amongst others in the 6N as well

 

[Jakedood]

As far as I'm aware we didn't have Mallinder, Marchant and Williams amongst others in the 6N as well

Ireland didnt have players like Jacob Stockdale either, and a couple of Leinster boys were missing too if i recall correctly, playing for provinces instead...we're all in the same boat here

 

[munstermuffin]

Ireland didnt have players like Jacob Stockdale either, and a couple of Leinster boys were missing too if i recall correctly, playing for provinces instead...we're all in the same boat here

14 changes I think we made from All Blacks game and alot of differnce in coaching patterns between how we operated in spring and now. We've developed a big depth that wasnt there 6nations.

 

[profitius]

I didn't mean it in a rude way, Ireland have done brilliant to win all 3 games in a tough group, but could you see them beating England in the final?

We might find out. The bookmakers are seldom wrong. They're pricing Argentina as 55% favourites with Ireland at 45% in the semi final. England are 70% favourites with the boks at 30%.

I suspect if England played Ireland in the final England could be as strong as 85-90% favourites. England always step it up at this stage. Last year we lost to France in the group but played brilliant against the Boks in the SF and should've beaten NZ in the final. We've done historically very well in this tournament. The irish have done nothing. Their win over NZ was a case of a big pack dominating in atrocious conditions. They won't be able to do that to England. I suspect Argentina will put them out but even if they scrape through they have no chance against England

Just a few points in reply.

The bookies are always getting things wrong in this competition.

England wouldn't be 95-90% favourites if the teams met in the final. Ireland beat them and have drastically improved since the 6 nations.

Ireland were not really, average in the 6 nations. There was great peaks and troughs in their performances.

Someone should have told Ireland they were not supposed to beat the baby blacks because it goes against the history of the competition.

Big Irish pack? NZ's pack were 6kg per man heavier. Ireland were technically better including their passing in that game.


Ludders it looks like you've some sort of bias there thats clouding your judgement.

 

[unrated]

Got 100% of my predictions correct. Sad to concede that none was upset wins .

- - - Updated - - -

Just a few points in reply.

The bookies are always getting things wrong in this competition.

England wouldn't be 95-90% favourites if the teams met in the final. Ireland beat them and have drastically improved since the 6 nations.

Ireland were not really, average in the 6 nations. There was great peaks and troughs in their performances.

Someone should have told Ireland they were not supposed to beat the baby blacks because it goes against the history of the competition.

Big Irish pack? NZ's pack were 6kg per man heavier. Ireland were technically better including their passing in that game.


Ludders it looks like you've some sort of bias there thats clouding your judgement.

well Wales were grand slam winners and they lost to Ireland so its really difficult to predict the results correctly. These young players are very inconsistent.
Home advantage and for some reason i never quite grasped why it has such an impact ( the players know many of their home fans are watching on tv) but it does.
So England are expected to win this competition and anything less should be seen as a failure. For the rest if you can win away from home then you are deserving champions.

 

[RedruthRFC]

We might find out. The bookmakers are seldom wrong. They're pricing Argentina as 55% favourites with Ireland at 45% in the semi final. England are 70% favourites with the boks at 30%.

This is a common misconception. Bookies don't make their money by being better at making predictions than shrewd punters, they make their money by having an overround in their book and managing their exposure. Without this, they would have no edge over informed punters in competitions like the JRWC. Market setters like form, which in U20 rugby can be very misleading (e.g. Scotland beating England in the 6N) but don't have the resources to perform the kind of analysis needed to make a decent attempt at pricing a market like this tournament on which very little money is going to be wagered.

Edit: 1/10 or more would be a crazy short price in a final of a competition like this.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I didn't mean it in a rude way, Ireland have done brilliant to win all 3 games in a tough group, but could you see them beating England in the final?

We might find out. The bookmakers are seldom wrong. They're pricing Argentina as 55% favourites with Ireland at 45% in the semi final. England are 70% favourites with the boks at 30%.

I suspect if England played Ireland in the final England could be as strong as 85-90% favourites. England always step it up at this stage. Last year we lost to France in the group but played brilliant against the Boks in the SF and should've beaten NZ in the final. We've done historically very well in this tournament. The irish have done nothing. Their win over NZ was a case of a big pack dominating in atrocious conditions. They won't be able to do that to England. I suspect Argentina will put them out but even if they scrape through they have no chance against England

They are with this 20's side, undrdogs for the first two games and a 42 point handicap after 30mins yesterday! The handicap is 1 favouring Argentina so the bookies haven't a clue for this game really, hoping to bank on Argentina winning because of passionate Irish betting, surely as someone who makes money off bookies you'd know this tournament should be avoided and England at 8/11 despite not having any commanding performances is not worth backing?

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

England Team to face South Africa

15 Max Malins (Saracens)
14 Sam Aspland-Robinson (Harlequins)
13 Joe Marchant (Harlequins)
12 Johnny Williams (London Irish)
11 Matt Gallagher (Saracens)
10 Harry Mallinder - Captain (Northampton Saints)
9 Max Green (Yorkshire Carnegie)

1 Lewis Boyce (Yorkshire Carnegie)
2 Jack Singleton (Worcester Warriors)
3 Billy Walker (Saracens)
4 Stan South (Harlequins)
5 Huw Taylor (Worcester Warriors)
6 George Nott (Sale Sharks)
7 Will Evans (Leicester Tigers)
8 Callum Chick (Newcastle Falcons)

Replacements:

16 Charlie Piper (Harlequins)
17 Tom West (Wasps)
18 Will Stuart (Wasps)
19 Andrew Kitchener (Worcester Warriors)
20 Jack Willis (Wasps)
21 Harry Randall (Gloucester Rugby)
22 Max Wright (Yorkshire Carnegie)
23 Ollie Thorley (Gloucester Rugby)

I'm surprised by there being no Mercer, but I'm more concerned about Singleton starting. We can kiss any lineout ball good bye.

 

[ratsapprentice]

Yep, we can assume that SA will have all of their own ball, and possibly quite a bit of ours in the lineout.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

England Team to face South Africa

15 Max Malins (Saracens)
14 Sam Aspland-Robinson (Harlequins)
13 Joe Marchant (Harlequins)
12 Johnny Williams (London Irish)
11 Matt Gallagher (Saracens)
10 Harry Mallinder - Captain (Northampton Saints)
9 Max Green (Yorkshire Carnegie)

1 Lewis Boyce (Yorkshire Carnegie)
2 Jack Singleton (Worcester Warriors)
3 Billy Walker (Saracens)
4 Stan South (Harlequins)
5 Huw Taylor (Worcester Warriors)
6 George Nott (Sale Sharks)
7 Will Evans (Leicester Tigers)
8 Callum Chick (Newcastle Falcons)

Replacements:

16 Charlie Piper (Harlequins)
17 Tom West (Wasps)
18 Will Stuart (Wasps)
19 Andrew Kitchener (Worcester Warriors)
20 Jack Willis (Wasps)
21 Harry Randall (Gloucester Rugby)
22 Max Wright (Yorkshire Carnegie)
23 Ollie Thorley (Gloucester Rugby)

I'm surprised by there being no Mercer, but I'm more concerned about Singleton starting. We can kiss any lineout ball good bye.

Mercer to me showed he lack the size to run through the bigger players that Aus had, At least with Chick we have more of a workrate.

Obv from a Tigers biased i'm really happy that Evans is starting again looks the real deal for us long term wise.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Walker was crap at the lineout last game, though.
He also didn't have a very good game in general, apart from the breakdown. Think he went off injured at halftime, too. So bench spot makes sense

 

[ratsapprentice]

He definitely looks better than that Owens kid from last year (who looked poor, TBH), but I've not seen all that much from him.

If Underhill was playing in England he wouldn't have a sniff.

- - - Updated - - -

Walker was crap at the lineout last game, though.
He also didn't have a very good game in general, apart from the breakdown. Think he went off injured at halftime, too. So bench spot makes sense

He's injured so not in the 23 at all... he was significantly better than Singleton was in the first game - couldn't hit a barn door.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Woops, missed that.
Still, he was poor enough last game that I don't think he's a major loss, Singleton looked better in the 2nd half.