[2016 Super Rugby] Hurricanes vs. Lions (The Final) 06/08/2016

[TRF_stormer2010]

I have a few thoughts on this and apologize from the get-go because I don't think its going to be particularly coherent.

i)
Many of their best players they've had since befoe their relegation. Some of them were loaned to the SR sides in order to keep them and they play stints in Japan to top up their salaries and remain a the union. Other than that I think they are a very tight knit group in that Ackermann has bestowed a great culture and team spirit, they went through a lot together as a unit (relegation, financial trouble etc) and then the other thing is they managed to keep their players because 1) for the most part these players didn't have big names even if 1/2 the Lions side will probably jog out for the Bokke and 2) their style of play is different and the other SA sides have learnt they don't always transition so well and I think there is a perception that these players tend to underperform when taken out of the Lions environment; Jaco Taute and Elton Jantjies' stints with the Stormers and Warren Whiteley failing to impress for the Bokke all a few years back.

ii)
I have an issue with their style being called NZ. SA has a very long and proud histry of running rugby and the Lions and Cheetahs continue to do so. If anything its the Bulls, Sharks and Stormers that dummed down their approach to such a narrow focus we are strugling to get out of the groove. In a sense we are the victim of our own sucess of a group of specialist players who fitted a narrow plan very very well and the laws at the time suited that plan. Blame the 2007-2010 Bulls under Meyer on top of Jake White's blueprint. Peter de Villiers was a dud and then we had Meyer as Bok coach so no evolution for a good long while. And its not as if the Lions don't have a very strong set piece.

iii)
I think the fact that the core of their squad were already there and playing well enough pre-relegation is the key on top of retaining their squad and then lastly filling in the gaps with quality players. Its no coincdence the Cheetahs only made the playofs in 2013, the year they managed to keep the majority of their team from the previsou year. They also have a strong identity and sense of purpose in Ackermann who essentialy turned down the Bok job for his players based on Christian values. That and the team also had the benefit of a history and tradition that totally new teams don't.

 

[Ludders93]

Looks like it won't rain, 25mph winds forecast though. That's a storm in most of the world but seems pretty normal by Wellington standards. I was thinking, that with Dane Coles injured, if I was to make a combined XV, the only Hurricane forward that would make the team would be Ardie Savea. And the backline would be almost a 50/50 split between Hurricanes and Lions. Yet the Hurricanes are strong 8 point favourites and I think my bet has very little chance. Just shows what home-field advantage does, and how these NZ franchises even without star names produce quality teams. I hope it's a good game whatever the result, the last 3 finals have all been great tense spectacles. Prediction, Hurricanes 24-10 Lions

 

[austingtir]

Looks like it won't rain, 25mph winds forecast though. That's a storm in most of the world but seems pretty normal by Wellington standards. I was thinking, that with Dane Coles injured, if I was to make a combined XV, the only Hurricane forward that would make the team would be Ardie Savea. And the backline would be almost a 50/50 split between Hurricanes and Lions. Yet the Hurricanes are strong 8 point favourites and I think my bet has very little chance. Just shows what home-field advantage does, and how these NZ franchises even without star names produce quality teams. I hope it's a good game whatever the result, the last 3 finals have all been great tense spectacles. Prediction, Hurricanes 24-10 Lions

I think the Hurricanes backrow is better but not the tight 5. They have one very good lock but thats about it I dont rate their props at all.

Shields, Vito and Savea is a WORLD CLASS backrow. Shields has been weak this year but he had a phenominal year last year so no huge surprise. He's overdue for a standout performance.
Vito in paticular should be very hungry to win this game.

 

[Lions4Life]

guys, i am going to be quite frank here... everyone downplays the Lions chances of actually winning, yes i know history is against us, but looked what we achieved?? i have a feeling that the Lions are going to win it, just because they want it more and have more to prove!

prediction, Lions 22 Canes 15

 

[TRF_heineken]

Just to add on what TRF_stormer2010 has said:

Pardon my ignorance but how have the Lions managed to:

i) keep their players (when teams like the Kings and Cheetahs seem to lose them more regularly to the big SA teams, who presumably also have deeper pockets than the Lions)
ii) promote open, attacking NZ style rugby (when the other SA teams and Springboks are not exactly well known for that and seem more concerned about the set piece)
iii) be a success relatively soon after relegation (when every other newer team in the league (possibly barring the Rebels) languishes at the bottom and seems to struggle to make any sort of improvement)

Are there lessons for teams like expansion sides like the Cheetahs, Force etc? Or even for the established SA sides?

i) The Lions are in Johannesburg, one of the biggest cities in the Southern Hemisphere, and has a lot of big Rugby playing high schools and 2 of the top universities in the country about 20 km's away from the Stadium. They have always had a lot of talent to showcase and some of the best players in the country are from that region. Some of their players doesn't necessarily live in Johannesburg, but close-by in towns such as Alberton, Vanderbijlpark, Germiston, Boksburg or even in Centurion and Pretoria (where the Bulls are at), all these towns/areas are within 50km's of the stadium, so it makes sense for them to stay in Joburg where their families are.

The lions were in financial trouble at one stage yes, but they managed to secure a lot of big name sponsors such as Coca-Cola and Emirates airways, the Lions franchise also has a big Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) investor that assisted them in turning things around when it seemed like they were heading for bankruptcy. That and also the fact that their stadium is being used for soccer matches assists a lot in keeping the company financially sound.

The reason why the Cheetahs and the Kings are struggling is:
1) Location:
The Cheetahs are situated in Bloemfontein, a city in the middle of the country, with not many other cities close by. The only 1 close by is Kimberley, home of the Griquas (and also why these two Currie Cup teams are joined together for Super Rugby), otherwise its just vast open farmland with nothing in sight for miles. The other closest rugby playing cities are Johannesburg and Durban, which is at least 500km away.

The Kings, are in Port Elizabeth, which is the most Southeast city in the country, and to drive there from Cape Town or Durban is about a 1000km, and from Bloemfontein it's about 700km.

2) Sponsors:
The Cheetahs got a big sponsor in Toyota, mainly because of all the farmers around the area all driving Toyota 4x4's. I think for the first time in the Cheetahs franchise history, they are getting the financial support from a sponsor to actually attempt in keeping their players.

ii) It's not necesarily NZ playstyle, sure they do a few things that is new to SA rugby. But what they do well has always been part of South African rugby. Scrum dominance and contesting lineouts, along with big burly forwards and fast outfield players. We've always had that, it's not new or foreign to South Africa. What the Lions however do differently is to keep the ball alive, whereas other SA teams would rather go to ground, form a ruck and recycle, which breaks the tempo a bit. The reason why the Lions manages to play at such a high tempo, is mainly because of their scrumhalves, who are fast at the breakdown and quick at passing. Just like Joost van der Westhuizen was back in his days.

iii) Here we have to praise Johann Ackerman and his support staff. They literally went back to the drawing board, did a lot of analysis and found a way to use their players strenghts and weaknesses to their advantage. Something a lot of coaches are missing at times IMHO. The other thing is the whole underdog tag that they had. For years they were the laughing stock of SA Rugby, and all they did was to use that ridicule to fuel the fire. Ackermann went and bought players who were seen as has-been's at other franchises (Lionell Mapoe, Franco Mostert, Courtnall Skosan - Bulls; Ruan Combrink - Sharks; Elton Jantjies - Stormers), and gave them an opportunity to prove themselves and buy in to the plans set in motion.

If you look at it, it's basically the perfect recipe for any proffessional rugby team to be successful.

 

[Ludders93]

ii) It's not necesarily NZ playstyle, sure they do a few things that is new to SA rugby. But what they do well has always been part of South African rugby. Scrum dominance and contesting lineouts, along with big burly forwards and fast outfield players. We've always had that, it's not new or foreign to South Africa. What the Lions however do differently is to keep the ball alive, whereas other SA teams would rather go to ground, form a ruck and recycle, which breaks the tempo a bit. The reason why the Lions manages to play at such a high tempo, is mainly because of their scrumhalves, who are fast at the breakdown and quick at passing. Just like Joost van der Westhuizen was back in his days.


The Lions play a totally different game to anything I've seen from a South African franchise or the Springbok national team. It's not just a question of slightly quicker ball, or a few more offloads, it's a totally different outlook on the game. It's expansive rugby as opposed to conservative rugby. That's not to say there haven't been good South African sides, the national side from 2007-2010 was brilliant, as was the Bulls franchise at that time, but the Lions are completely revolutionary. They look to attack from anywhere, have forwards who can offload, try exotic kicks. I wouldn't call it "NZ" rugby, because Australian franchises have played with a similar philosophy, but it's something unique and new to South Africa

 

[TRF_heineken]

The Lions play a totally different game to anything I've seen from a South African franchise or the Springbok national team. It's not just a question of slightly quicker ball, or a few more offloads, it's a totally different outlook on the game. It's expansive rugby as opposed to conservative rugby. That's not to say there haven't been good South African sides, the national side from 2007-2010 was brilliant, as was the Bulls franchise at that time, but the Lions are completely revolutionary. They look to attack from anywhere, have forwards who can offload, try exotic kicks. I wouldn't call it "NZ" rugby, because Australian franchises have played with a similar philosophy, but it's something unique and new to South Africa

Perhaps it's new to you. But I see a lot of similarities between the Lions, and the Bulls that won the Super Rugby Championship a few years ago. Dominant forward pack, solid scrumhalf and exciting wingers along with a solid flyhalf.

Remember that Bryan Habana scored some brilliant tries also from the bulls own 22. Pierre Spies at no. 8 was a monster behind the scrum and used the scrum to score tries and get out of danger.

What I do agree with is the fancy kicks, that is certainly something new to the SA fly halves, but we've seen those kicks from Lambie, Pollard, Jantjies, Du Preez, Schoeman, Brummer have all been doing it the last 2-3 years. But that is because of the opposition using rush defences and this creates the space behind them to make the kicks.

The attack from anywhere, offload and exotic kicks was something that Heyneke Meyer wanted to incorporate into the Springboks, and he had relative success. Against Argentina it worked well for 3 years, where we even once beaten them by over 70 points...

But against New Zealand for example, we struggled at stages, and eventually lost the match as some players couldn't keep up with the pace, or tried to overdo it. That is mostly due to pressure and inexperience.

 

[SomeOke]

As people have mentioned before from a style perspective modern attacking play can be broken down into three areas: Making use of offloads to keep the ball alive, counterattacking from turn over ball and kicking from hand in an attacking sense.

Now I've only been watching rugby for a relatively short amount of time compared to most of the SA posters (About 10 years), but I have to say that in all the time I've been watching rugby I've seen very little evidence of the three things mentioned above. SA teams have typically shunned offloading as a "50/50" play, kick for touch when the ball is turned over in our half because "safety first" and attacking kicks are also usually considered a low percentage play.

Yes the Bulls scored plenty of tries when they were winning the competition a while ago, but it was mostly from narrowing the opposition's defensive line through forward brutality and then swinging it wide, a tactic that has proven ineffective in recent years.

Honestly I feel like with most coaches in South Africa there is a mentality that running rugby isn't winning rugby, every time a coach tries to run the ball and change tactics, it usually results in a few lost games and they revert back to the tried and tested strategy. In the end I honestly believe a team has to lose a few games (or a lot of games) but be willing to stick with the way they play in order to build up the culture and skill-set required for running rugby. The Hurricanes didn't achieve much success playing running rugby for a couple years but they stuck to their guns and now they have it down to an art, the same goes for the Lions.

Basically I feel like coaches need to have the courage to lose a few games and have a few bad seasons in order to breed the running rugby culture into their players, but they are all too afraid of losing to try it in the long term.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

ii) It's not necesarily NZ playstyle, sure they do a few things that is new to SA rugby. But what they do well has always been part of South African rugby. Scrum dominance and contesting lineouts, along with big burly forwards and fast outfield players. We've always had that, it's not new or foreign to South Africa. What the Lions however do differently is to keep the ball alive, whereas other SA teams would rather go to ground, form a ruck and recycle, which breaks the tempo a bit. The reason why the Lions manages to play at such a high tempo, is mainly because of their scrumhalves, who are fast at the breakdown and quick at passing. Just like Joost van der Westhuizen was back in his days.


The Lions play a totally different game to anything I've seen from a South African franchise or the Springbok national team. It's not just a question of slightly quicker ball, or a few more offloads, it's a totally different outlook on the game. It's expansive rugby as opposed to conservative rugby. That's not to say there haven't been good South African sides, the national side from 2007-2010 was brilliant, as was the Bulls franchise at that time, but the Lions are completely revolutionary. They look to attack from anywhere, have forwards who can offload, try exotic kicks. I wouldn't call it "NZ" rugby, because Australian franchises have played with a similar philosophy, but it's something unique and new to South Africa

I assume you didn't follow rugby or at least SA rugby 2003 and earlier? Even more recent than that the Stormers were scoring length of the field tries still circa 2010 with athletic and skillful forwards (like Schalk Brits, Deon Fourie, Andries Bekker etc) combing with our backs even if WP/Stormers havn't had a 9/10 combination of note since.. forever..

 

[TRF_heineken]

I assume you didn't follow rugby or at least SA rugby 2003 and earlier? Even more recent than that the Stormers were scoring length of the field tries still circa 2010 with athletic and skillful forwards (like Schalk Brits, Deon Fourie, Andries Bekker etc) combing with our backs even if WP/Stormers havn't had a 9/10 combination of note since.. forever..

Perhaps we have patches on our eyes Stormer, and don't see what the others are seeing. But before we digress too much, I think we should stay on topic stick to tomorrow's final.

 

[SomeOke]

As for the game it's going to be tough for the Lions away but I almost feel that pound for pound the Lions have them beat. That said the Canes have this incredibly annoying quality of being able to score tries from nowhere and having a nigh unbreachable defense.
I can see this game playing out exactly like the Chiefs game did i.e. The Canes defense refuses to crack and they end up scoring a few fantastic break-away tries.
That said if the Lions can look after their ball and dominate the set-piece they have a good shot. I'd say realistically the Canes are something like 60-40 favourites being at home.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Thanks a lot for the detailed responses guys. It's good to have some background. I'm completely failing to read forecasts (anything from extremely windy to perfect conditions) but at least it shouldn't be sodden like the Sharks game. If its close at halftime I fancy the Lions even if they are behind as the Hurricanes may have flashbacks to losing on home soil last year. But I think the Hurricanes could get out the gates quick, execute well and jump out to a lead.

Hurricanes 33 - 22 Lions

 

[Ludders93]

is anyone in Wellington can give an accurate forecast for tonight's game?

 

[austingtir]

According to forecast tiny bit of drizzle but average windspeeds of 24 (at 8pm) gusting to 47km/h...... But Id think the 47 might be more likely around mid day not at kick off.


And right now its saying wind = strong SE 50kmh and gusts to 78kmh.... Not liking the Lions chances in that unless they can score a shed load of points going one way.

 

[Ludders93]

Apologies to the South Africans, I just watched highlights of the Bulls' semi final and final win over Crusaders and Chiefs in 2009, they played some pretty nice rugby too. Whatever happens tonight, the Lions should be proud of the way they've played. The win against the Bulls, winning in Hamilton, beating the Kiwis in QF and SF, outstanding stuff. If the wind really is that strong ^^, the Lions need to go pragmatic, scrum, rolling maul, tactical kicking. Also if you win the toss, ensure you get the wind in the second half, then if you can get to half time in touch, you have a great chance.
Hurricanes 24-12 Lions, it won't be high scoring, but the Canes' name is on the trophy this year sadly

 

[Gena_ZA]

The Canes are much better than the Lions... at losing in finals

GO LIONS

 

[GoTheNaki]

Wet and cold. Lol. And windy. It's like that pretty much all over our country right now.

 

[Jaguares]

Knock-on?

What a kick by Barrett!

 

[GoTheNaki]

How many phases can this call go back...............................

 

[Jaguares]

There is no try!