[2015 Six Nations] England vs Italy (Round 2)

[Every Time Ref]

You can moan about having nothing to moan about and then moan that that is a paradox.

Yeah but other people will probably moan about my "moaning / moaning paradox" moans

Me neither. I don't think he's a poor kicker by any means.

Just not quite as accurate Farrell (although the Prem stats suggest differently this season) from my impression of watching him a fair amount over the past three years. He seems to have missed a couple of significant ones for Bath this season but for England, so far, he has been consistent and more importantly knocked over the important ones.

Ball in hand he is something else with only Cipriani to compete with him in England. His spacial awareness and the timing of his passes makes him stand out from the no.10 shirt crowd. I haven't seen anyone operate quite like he does under that pressure for a very long time.

His main problem historically has been a slight tendency to fall apart and just have one terrible day - I think a kicker who kicks consistently at 75% every game is far better than a kicker who generally kicks at 80-85% then every so often falls apart completely, making the same overall 75% success rate. His range is also fairly short for a top-level kicker I'd say, even in perfect conditions he doesn't knock them over from half way.

 

[msf]

Re: the one terrible day thing, I think it's just that Ford's have come in higher profile games than Farrell's have, which I guess might be why McGeechan calls Farrell a 'test-match animal' (with the emphasis on animal). Thinking back, Farrell usually kicks poorly on return from injury, but Myler definitely has (or has had) off days from the tee, as does Cipriani, and Carter too if it comes to that. I agree about the range thing, but that's also true of the Premiership's top kicker, Steenson - the reason why his stats are higher than Ford's is because Slade takes the longer kicks. I think this is the long-term solution for England - have someone like Slade or Daly alongside him to kick long-range penalties and also to provide a left-foot kicking option.

 

[Willodell100]

Re: the one terrible day thing, I think it's just that Ford's have come in higher profile games than Farrell's have, which I guess might be why McGeechan calls Farrell a 'test-match animal' (with the emphasis on animal). Thinking back, Farrell usually kicks poorly on return from injury, but Myler definitely has (or has had) off days from the tee, as does Cipriani, and Carter too if it comes to that. I agree about the range thing, but that's also true of the Premiership's top kicker, Steenson - the reason why his stats are higher than Ford's is because Slade takes the longer kicks. I think this is the long-term solution for England - have someone like Slade or Daly alongside him to kick long-range penalties and also to provide a left-foot kicking option.

That's actually pretty solid long term planning and having Slade in at 12 would also give us the left foot kicking option too to take pressure off Ford.

Lots of ifs and buts but loads of potential there and not that far from reality with Slade being included in the squad (at the last minute mind!).

 

[TommiG88]

Moving valentines day to tomorrow on the partners consent so I can enjoy Saturday.

 

[goodNumber10]

Re: the one terrible day thing, I think it's just that Ford's have come in higher profile games than Farrell's have,

isn't that the exact problem though?

Not saying Ford is a poor kicker, because we've not seen him at the top level long enough to even fathom a guess, but it's no good being a 90% kicker if the bad 10% lets you down under pressure, better to shed that % over the course of multiple games rater than a chunk of it all in one game. Which is the point Every Time Ref is making. no?

Ultimately season stats are fine, for league games, but it'd be good to know individual kickers %'s in big games - i.e. does someone like Farrell or Fords %'s go up or down in pressure games (such as quarter finals etc...) and is that spike consistent - proving if someone is a better and more consistent big game kicker as opposed to just a consistent kicker over 10 months (which leads you back to and ultimately proves your TMA quote).

 

[Willodell100]

isn't that the exact problem though?

Not saying Ford is a poor kicker, because we've not seen him at the top level long enough to even fathom a guess, but it's no good being a 90% kicker if the bad 10% lets you down under pressure, better to shed that % over the course of multiple games rater than a chunk of it all in one game. Which is the point Every Time Ref is making. no?

Ultimately season stats are fine, for league games, but it'd be good to know individual kickers %'s in big games - i.e. does someone like Farrell or Fords %'s go up or down in pressure games (such as quarter finals etc...) and is that spike consistent - proving if someone is a better and more consistent big game kicker as opposed to just a consistent kicker over 10 months (which leads you back to and ultimately proves your TMA quote).

Interesting topic you've brought up. It would be really interesting to have access to this data and I'm sure it wouldn't be too hard to compile as the data is already available. I guess the parameters are the hardest part to define.

The main two I see are a) what is the definition of a big match and b) the definition of a big kick?

Dealing with the first, what different value do you put on any tightly contested match? Whether it be vs a French team in a semi final in the European Challenge Cup or against an away trip to Newcastle. Both are pressurised scenarios for a kicker for different reasons.

And thinking about a big kick would you put the same value on a kicker to gain a losing bonus point penalty as the same as winning the Premiership ***le and, if so, what is the 'value' difference? Again both are pressurised for different reasons.

I really liked the statistics you posted earlier in the week on premiership kickers. I'm not a huge believer in stats as a coach but as a fan I love them and wish we had more in our top level sport. I don't like watching American Sports as I find them slightly boring but I do like how in depth their statistical analysis is.

 

[goodNumber10]

Interesting topic you've brought up. It would be really interesting to have access to this data and I'm sure it wouldn't be too hard to compile as the data is already available. I guess the parameters are the hardest part to define.

The main two I see are a) what is the definition of a big match and b) the definition of a big kick?

Dealing with the first, what different value do you put on any tightly contested match? Whether it be vs a French team in a semi final in the European Challenge Cup or against an away trip to Newcastle. Both are pressurised scenarios for a kicker for different reasons.

And thinking about a big kick would you put the same value on a kicker to gain a losing bonus point penalty as the same as winning the Premiership ***le and, if so, what is the 'value' difference? Again both are pressurised for different reasons.

I really liked the statistics you posted earlier in the week on premiership kickers. I'm not a huge believer in stats as a coach but as a fan I love them and wish we had more in our top level sport. I don't like watching American Sports as I find them slightly boring but I do like how in depth their statistical analysis is.

Yeah, and that definition of a pressure game/kick is where it falls down as that's obviously going to wildly open to interpretation.

For coaching I find stats useful as bench marks. I use basic Team and individual tackle and carry stats and a ladder for my own team mainly because it actually creates a bit of competition within the squad with them trying to out do each other week on week, but as a coach i find it more important to look at whether those carries/tackles were dominant or passive and how that effects the flow of the attack/defence.

As everyone says stats are fine but are massively open to interpretation.

 

[ncurd]

There's a problem of self-inflicted pressure as well how do you weight it if a player is having a real off day missed 50% of their kicks and now has a kick to win the match in the 79th minute. The player is under way more pressure than one who has made all his kicks that day.

Then there's placement as well same scenario as above 79th minute winning kick but one player has it between the posts on the 22 the other on the touchline at the halfway line.

Also kickers perceived range is another I remember commentators banging on about Dan Parks' stats but I never really remember him taking the hard kicks.


I'm sure someone with time can put this all together and come up with something interesting.

 

[goodNumber10]

There's a problem of self-inflicted pressure as well how do you weight it if a player is having a real off day missed 50% of their kicks and now has a kick to win the match in the 79th minute. The player is under way more pressure than one who has made all his kicks that day.

Then there's placement as well same scenario as above 79th minute winning kick but one player has it between the posts on the 22 the other on the touchline at the halfway line.

Also kickers perceived range is another I remember commentators banging on about Dan Parks' stats but I never really remember him taking the hard kicks.


I'm sure someone with time can put this all together and come up with something interesting.

Well those stats are available anyway - the goalkicking stats over the course of the seaosn takes into account placement, angle etc... but AFAICT not time in game nor pressure of game.

it would be interesting.

 

[yaboyjj]

The match from 2 years ago makes for painful watching:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/21694911

I can count 2 face-palm moments from Brad Barritt at 1:20 (players lining up on the right) and 2:40 (2 wingers outside him). How England managed to butcher some of those moves is pretty shocking- its also another fine kicking performance from Danny Care, why people keep wanting these two crowbars back in the side I will never know

 

[goodNumber10]

yeah, but look at the line up specifically number 8 and the back three :

15 Alex Goode
14 Chris Ashton
13 Manu Tuilagi
12 Brad Barritt
11 Mike Brown
10 Toby Flood
09 Danny Care
08 Tom Wood
07 Chris Robshaw (c)
06 James Haskell
05 Geoff Parling
04 Joe Launchbury
03 Dan Cole
02 Tom Youngs
01 Mako Vunipola
Replacements:
16 Dylan Hartley
17 David Wilson
18 Joe Marler
19 Courtney Lawes
20 Tom Croft
21 Ben Youngs
22 Freddie Burns
23 Billy Twelvetrees

 

[Maverick1987]

yeah, but look at the line up specifically number 8 and the back three :

15Alex Goode
14Chris Ashton
13Manu Tuilagi
12Brad Barritt
11Mike Brown
10Toby Flood
09Danny Care
08Tom Wood
07Chris Robshaw (c)
06James Haskell
05Geoff Parling
04Joe Launchbury
03Dan Cole
02Tom Youngs
01Mako Vunipola
Replacements:
16Dylan Hartley
17David Wilson
18Joe Marler
19Courtney Lawes
20Tom Croft
21Ben Youngs
22Freddie Burns
23Billy Twelvetrees

Croft started afaia

Still they were dark days for us tbh

 

[Peat]

Yeah, Croft started. Think Marler might have started as well?

Care a crowbar?

 

[Irishkid]

Yeah a bit harsh on Care but your right about Barritt.

 

[goodNumber10]

Yeah, Croft started. Think Marler might have started as well?

Care a crowbar?

na, haskell and vunipola started: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/ru...ions-2013-England-v-Italy-player-ratings.html

 

[Peat]

na, haskell and vunipola started: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/ru...ions-2013-England-v-Italy-player-ratings.html

...

Maybe I should have clicked on the link and found out what game you guys were talking about... oops :lol:

 

[goodNumber10]

 

[Patchey]

I won free tickets to watch that game at HQ and it was so bad I wished I hadn't!

Just remember watching Italy score and wishing England were that adventurous, which is a depressing thought to be having.

 

[Maverick1987]

na, haskell and vunipola started: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/ru...ions-2013-England-v-Italy-player-ratings.html

I thought you were talking about the Wales game we lost 30-3

 

[martinspoonboy1]

I won free tickets to watch that game at HQ and it was so bad I wished I hadn't!

Just remember watching Italy score and wishing England were that adventurous, which is a depressing thought to be having.

Count yourself lucky. I paid to be there! And it wasn't cheap. Horrible, horrible match.