ABs2011
First XV
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- Oct 27, 2011
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- 1,520
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My understanding is at the end of the day, the TAB has a bunch of fullahs (their bookies) who "specialize" in rugby (and separate groups of people who take responsibility for the various sports), who sit around a table and decide on what they think are the most reflective odds for any given game. This "should" take everything into account that you mentioned above; historical results, form, but also on other things like home ground advantage, weather, suspensions, injuries etc etc. Odds will change if the relative volume of betting is weighted too heavily to one team (and I would expect that the TAB has an automated system to minimize potential losses), but may also change (at the TABs discretion) if there are any significant events in the lead up to a game. I.e. The tab would change the odds tonight should half the Cantab team be ruled out with illness or something (extreme example, but one that severs to illustrate the point)..
At the end of the day, betting is simply you vs. the bookie(s). Given it is their full time job to figure out what odds to set, AND most importantly because they have a margin in their favour (i.e. if they determine a game to be 50 - 50, then if the odds were set fairly then each team would pay $2, but in reality they are set at $1.87 meaning if the TAB takes equal money on both teams they are guaranteed to make a +6.5% net return on all betting from that game), the bookies (and the TAB ) will generally come out trumps over most punters.
That being said, my personal opinion is that the NZ TAB are pretty amateurish (not so much in Rugby though as they do know their stuff there). It is not that hard to beat them IF you are disciplined, are good with numbers, and know the sport you are betting on. In particular they make a lot of mistakes - i.e. they set the odds incorrectly, and they often don't keep up news that might effect outcomes.
A very common example of how armature they are is that their odds are often not consistent. For example - often in rugby there are several different options for betting on the exact same thing. Eg. (hypothetically) Winning team and margin - Canterbury 13+ and alternate points start Canterbury -12.5. Now these two options are essentially exactly the same and therefore the odds should be exactly the same. However, the TAB often has discrepancies here and you can often find an extra few cents on one of the options. That might not seem much, but when you think long term, you'll realize that it is these extra few percent on your returns over time that are the difference between making and losing money.
Last night was another pretty good example although hindsight is a lovely thing
I believe it was probably realistic to have Waikato as slight favs, but it was pretty clear that the TAB significantly overvalued Waikato's win vs. Wellington. The Naki probably should have being offered at about $2 (which probably equates to a 45% chance of winning). The fact that they were paying $3 meant that if you did in fact believe they had a 45% chance of winning then your "expected return" was +35%. That's the way I approach my betting anyway. The long and the short of it is, use some simple maths to your advantage, have some discipline, take emotion out of it, and if you are unsure, don't bet. Try to determine for your self what chance you give a team of winning/covering certain spreads, compare that to the odds the TAB is offering, and then take the bet if your expected return is greater than 1 (or some slightly higher number if you have stricter criteria). It might all sound a bit too methodical, but IMHO it is the way you will make money.
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