Not a bad analysis but on each point I'd comment.
1. Agree on Beirne vs Kleyn comments if it is more the obvious stuff but Kleyn does impact games hugely in a defensive manner and stats show that. However the reason everyone thinks he will go is more as I believe this is a Kleyn vs Roux as oppose Beirne. Schmidt loves the TH lock that is physically a brute and history suggests that.
2. I fully agree on Kilcoyne ahead of Jack. But would note Jack lost form that made him 3rd choice for Leinster. Can he get it back is the goal.
3. Fully agree on this. Also Jordi is a much better 7 is where the spot is more needed than 6 or 8.
4. Again fully agree but again it is more a case of attrition. Ringrose is obviously our best 13 but Farrell is our 2nd best and does give something different too. Addison will be seen as a gamble but capable of course.
5. I'd disagree and say Joey has actually improved hugely from being a starter and has kicked on to being clear number 2 and possibly will be ushered in to being #1 after the RWC.
6. Cooney has filled in at 10 for Ulster in games over last 2 seasons and is very capable. Also Murray has and Ringrose has been mentioned as a possible option at 10 in a game.
7. The question on depth is more attrition. Yes we will have an easy pool but how physical will it be.
Also history will suggest 1 or 2 will miss out due to injury sustained in the warm ups.
Not a bad analysis but on each point I'd comment.
1. Agree on Beirne vs Kleyn comments if it is more the obvious stuff but Kleyn does impact games hugely in a defensive manner and stats show that. However the reason everyone thinks he will go is more as I believe this is a Kleyn vs Roux as oppose Beirne. Schmidt loves the TH lock that is physically a brute and history suggests that.
2. I fully agree on Kilcoyne ahead of Jack. But would note Jack lost form that made him 3rd choice for Leinster. Can he get it back is the goal.
3. Fully agree on this. Also Jordi is a much better 7 is where the spot is more needed than 6 or 8.
4. Again fully agree but again it is more a case of attrition. Ringrose is obviously our best 13 but Farrell is our 2nd best and does give something different too. Addison will be seen as a gamble but capable of course.
5. I'd disagree and say Joey has actually improved hugely from being a starter and has kicked on to being clear number 2 and possibly will be ushered in to being #1 after the RWC.
6. Cooney has filled in at 10 for Ulster in games over last 2 seasons and is very capable. Also Murray has and Ringrose has been mentioned as a possible option at 10 in a game.
7. The question on depth is more attrition. Yes we will have an easy pool but how physical will it be.
Also history will suggest 1 or 2 will miss out due to injury sustained in the warm ups.
I agree that Kleyn is a quality player and that he's the type of guy that Schmidt loves, if we take 5 locks in an 18-13 split or whatever I won't be complaining about him going, I just think the other four locks are better players.
To be fair to McGrath IF (and it's a huge if) hs can get his form back he strolls onto the plane but it's been so long since he showed anything more than flashes of.his best without any consistency that I've lost hope for the near future. As it stands he'll have a battle on his hands to get the No.1 shirt at Ulster. It's possible that Joe doesn't fully trust Killer and might be reluctant to take him as one of only two LHs (and presumably the same on the other side with Porter).
I think the three main centres + the first choice back three + Larmour and Addison is enough to get us through a world cup. If there are significant concerns over Addison's fitness though then that obviously isn't viable and we should take Farrell and one Addison/Conway in that case.
I can't say I'd feel particularly confident in us taking only Sexton and Carbery as actual 10s to Japan. Neither have good injury records and while I'm fine with Cooney or whoever's ability to cover for half an hour against Russia etc but if we need more than that from them we're in serious trouble. Ross Byrne is the ultimate backup 10, he's never flustered and he won't let the pressure of a World cup get to him. He's a complete pair of safe hands (which is underselling him really) which is crucial for a backup, not to mention that he's spent far more time playing 10 than anyone else for the team that's one three trophies in two years. I love Joey as a player and he's definitely improved at Munster but tbh I haven't seen any kind if vast transformation in his game. He definitely isn't showing the kind of form that demands consideration for the Ireland 10 jersey. Over the balance of the last few seasons Byrne and Carty have both been better at 10, I've no issue with Carbery being second choice but he's really not that much better than the guys behind him (he was third choice 10 at Leinster for a reason). I'd just feel far more confident in our chances if we have a third 10 there, particularly if it's Ross Byrne. Can't say I'd be delighted to see either Murray or Ringrose playing 10, they both have the game and the talent for it (they can both kick goals, have half-decent kicking games, good distribution/vision) but either playing there means we're wasting one of our best players by squeezing them into a position they won't be entirely comfortable with, we'll be significant worse off at both 10 AND 9/13 if it happens.
I think we've got a decent pool for physical attrition, Russia and Samoa will be tough but for the two biggest games we're up against Scotland and Japan, they'll both be tricky games but not the most physically gruelling as most.
Obviously injuries during warm ups are sadly inevitable and will render a lot of these debates irrelevant.
Anyway my dream RWC squad would be
LH: Healy, Kilcoyne
Hooker: Best, Cronin, Scannell
TH: Furlong, Porter, Ryan
Lock: Ryan, Toner, Henderson, Beirne
Backrow: Van der Flier, Stander, O'Mahony, Conan, Murphy
SH: Murray, Marmion, Cooney
OH: Sexton, Carbery, Byrne
Centre: Henshaw, Ringrose, Aki
Back three: Stockdale, Kearney, Earls, Larmour, Addison