A Political Thread pt. 2

[Gavin]

 

[Amiga500]

On 'liberation day', President Trump revealed America's strategic vulnerabilities

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/04/liberation-day-president-trump-revealed-americas-strategic-vulnerabilities

Very interesting view on trump's tariffs, what was hidden in the background we haven't heard about from the media regarding China v US.

The US unveiled a real vulnerability in the tariffs.

Absolutely correct.

China should have already known that - and I'm rather surprised they went with tariffs first rather than export controls.

Unless their end goal is (i) the utter embarrassment of Trump and (ii) the removal of the US treasury bond as the de-facto international backstop currency.

(i) may be appealing to many, but (ii) is a real strategic goal they may see worth pursuing.

(i) Hike the tariff war to the point he can't back down - then start really hitting rare mineral exports to US.
Leaving Trump little choice but to come grovelling back.

Or
(ii) Actually implement the export control and see the critical sectors in the US economy stagnate, badly, and then given the already large doubts over the long term reliability of the US economy, sink the knife in by offloading the US bonds they have.

 

[Which Tyler]

Remember...he's just trying to argue with you.

Self-proclaimed contrarian and provocateur, and has told us all publicly that they're sitting at home bored, and finding some fun winding people up on the internet.
ETA:

You are right I am a contrarian

My problem has been I've been on leave the last few weeks lol what else is there to do, sun's out, kids in school, dog walked and housework done...

 

[McTallshort]

Self-proclaimed contrarian and provocateur, who's told us all publicly that they're sitting at home bored, and finding some fun winding people up on the internet.

I thought he was at home investing all his wealth in Trump friendly shares while occasionally going litter picking?

 

[Saintjay]

Self-proclaimed contrarian and provocateur, who's told us all publicly that they're sitting at home bored, and finding some fun winding people up on the internet.

Sounds like pound shop Elon.

 

[ncurd]

Sounds like pound shop Elon.

They can afford pound shops in Wales?

 

[ncurd]

 Snop

I think it's a good question, how does China lose a trade war with the USA?

 

[Which Tyler]

I think it's a good question, how does China lose a trade war with the USA?

I'm not really sure that they can.
Surely, in a trade war, the net-exporter has more cards than the net-importer; and in terms of imports vs exports, the difference between China and USA is massive.

I'm sure I'm being hugely simplistic, and quite possibly wrong, though.

 

[ncurd]

I'm not really sure that they can.
Surely, in a trade war, the net-exporter has more cards than the net-importer; and in terms of imports vs exports, the difference between China and USA is massive.

I'm sure I'm being hugely simplistic, and quite possibly wrong, though.

Also the fact they own 759 billion dollars of US Bonds that has a total 4.91 Trillion so roughly 15%....

 

[General Melchett]

I think it's a good question, how does China lose a trade war with the USA?

I don't think China can be stopped. America may be able to slow them down temporarily by isolating them but for that to happen they'd need to get many other countries to tariff the **** out of them too and basically stop trading with them. I'm not convinced Trump can do that given how he has treated allies so far and in general proved himself to be unreliable. China also has no energy worries with Russia a key ally and neighbour.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Trump has passed an executive order demanding criminal investigations into former staffers who spoke out against him and has publicly called then traitors and accused them if treason...

This is added on top of chucking people out of the country without any due process, launching targeted attacks on law firms that represented people he didn't like and various other acts that are straight out of an autocratic playbook.

The USA could be sleepwalking into a very dangerous situation in which everything is dismissed until the whole legal and political process has been neutered when it comes to Trump.

 

[dirty harry]

Wait? What?

One was about cops killing black people and the frequency is happens compared to any other group even when factoring in things like social status.
One was a completely made up consipiracy theory in the hopes overturning a democratic election!

You can argue about the outcomes but its crass as **** to suggest both had legitimate grievances.

It's not crass it's factual, and my comparison wasn't the point I was getting at, my point was literally that people rising up against the government is good for us all as populations...

How could you all possibly take offence to that point?

 

[Saintjay]

It's not crass it's factual, and my comparison wasn't the point I was getting at, my point was literally that people rising up against the government is good for us all as populations...

How could you all possibly take offence to that point?

The Iranian revolution worked at well and for the good of all.

 

[dirty harry]

You know about the fake elector plot Trump engaged in, right? You know why he mobilised his zealots on Jan 6th right? How is that similar to a global movement that wasn't organised by a sitting president? If you want to say they were both violent then I could also compare it to a rugby match or some ********. Apples and oranges mate.

What are you talking about?

At what point did I promote or justify Jan 6th lol? I literally called it 'stupid cause'.

Are you claiming BLM didn't turn violent? You know that's not true lol.

But this is what I mean, I can recognise the positive outcome of both Jan 6 and BLM storming the Capitol buildings, the reach and message to the US government, and your still stuck on my team is good there's is bad.

Consider this, you've been told your team is good, and their team is bad, what if both teams are good, and if they combined real effective change could happen?!

 

[Welsh Exile]

What are you talking about?

At what point did I promote or justify Jan 6th lol? I literally called it 'stupid cause'.

Are you claiming BLM didn't turn violent? You know that's not true lol.

But this is what I mean, I can recognise the positive outcome of both Jan 6 and BLM storming the Capitol buildings, the reach and message to the US government, and your still stuck on my team is good there's is bad.

Consider this, you've been told your team is good, and their team is bad, what if both teams are good, and if they combined real effective change could happen?!

Are you having trouble reading today?

 

[Saintjay]

Are you having trouble reading today?

Soap in the eyes from all the car valeting.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Soap in the eyes from all the car valeting.

I was thinking he was doing his usual strawman thing but I genuinely think he misread my post or failed to grasp the basic point I was making.

 

[dirty harry]

I was thinking he was doing his usual strawman thing but I genuinely think he misread my post or failed to grasp the basic point I was making.

Maybe I've misread...

What am I missing?

 

[Welsh Exile]

Maybe I've misread...

What am I missing?

First of all I was saying that if you are saying these 2 things are the same because they were both violent then you could also compare it to a rugby match or something. So I wasn’t claiming that BLM wasn’t violent I was disputing your point that the 2 are comparable due to levels of violence, hence why I said you can compare BLM or Jan 6th to a rugby match or something which would be silly.

I also didn’t say you tried to justify Jan 6th. I take issue with you comparing it to BLM like they are the same, or even remotely similar. They’re not.

 

[dirty harry]

First of all I was saying that if you are saying these 2 things are the same because they were both violent then you could also compare it to a rugby match or something. So I wasn't claiming that BLM wasn't violent I was disputing your point that the 2 are comparable due to levels of violence, hence why I said you can compare BLM or Jan 6th to a rugby match or something which would be silly.

I also didn't say you tried to justify Jan 6th. I take issue with you comparing it to BLM like they are the same, or even remotely similar. They're not.

I mean they are the same, both stormed the Capitol, both were treated very differently by police...

Both were products of lock downs, and the frustrations of covid, both were misguided for different reasons, and yes both were affiliated with sitting presidents (although in BLMs case it was promoted by Obama, and used for political purposes by Biden, probably not a fair comparison). The difference between them in reality is you believe 1 is inherently good, and 1 is inherently bad. You are wrong, there are multiple sociological reasons for protests and riots.

So no, a rugby match does not cause a billion dollars worth of damage, trespass in the Capitol, or kill people... that is not fair to say.

But my initial comparison was simple, they were both acts of civil disobedience that spilled over, whether you agree with the cause or not (and I hold agreements and disagreements with both), both sent a message to the US government.

During the BLM protests, where do you believe the funding came from, where the pallets of bricks came from conveniently placed in major cities? Why do you think the Democrats all took a knee wearing African garb hahaha? Pressure, and the reality that this could escalate and hold them accountable. Do you believe Pelosi, Biden and Schumer really give 2 shits about the plight of Black Americans being harmed unlawfully by the police? They're the people who brazenly brag about writing the crime Bill, and we're part of the problem.

To reiterate my point, that you keep conveniently ignoring, people good, governments and politicians bad, and need to be held accountable. The French are far better than most at this, I'd love the UK to be more like them in that regard.