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Tri Nations 2009-2011
Tri Nations: Wallabies - Springboks @ ANZ Stadium, Sydney (23-07-2011, 11:00 GMT)
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<blockquote data-quote="Darwin" data-source="post: 420618" data-attributes="member: 24910"><p>Reasonably predictable lineups selected by both sides. The only slight surprise in the Australian lineup is the selection of Simmons over Sharpe at lock, and McCabe at 12. Simmons certainly deserves his spot on form, though Sharpe did have a very good Super Rugby season in my opinion. I quite like the selection of McCabe at 12; he runs great lines in attack and could very effective running off Coopers shoulder. He is also a very solid defensive player. His major issue is his lack of experience, but I feel if he takes his chances he may be able to secure himself the 12 jeresy for the RWC.</p><p></p><p>Man-for-man I believe Australia has the better team. It will be interesting to see how the Aussie scrum goes; Kepu and Alexander are both good with the ball in hand but neither are great scrummagers in my opinion. South Africa possibly lack the front row to expose this though; I do rate Kruger and Greyling, but they do lack experience at this level. Both teams have solid locks, but I'd give Australia a slight advantage here. One area where Australia look to have a clear advantage in the loose-forwards. I don't rate Ashley Johnson at all as his defense and work-rate are poor; I don't think McCalman has been in great form but I'd take him over Johnson any day. Rossouw will add plenty of physicality to the Boks forward pack, but I feel he lacks the speed these days to play in the loose-forwards. I expect Genia and co. will look to exploit the Boks down the blindside. Elsom will certainly need to pull out a big game to justify his inclusion ahead of the impressive Higginbotham. Pocock has a huge advantage over Stegmann on the openside too; not only is he a superior player, but I feel he will be better supported by his fellow loosies at the breakdown than Stegmann will be.</p><p></p><p>Again Australia look to have a huge advantage in the halves and Genia and Cooper are world-class. I expect Cooper and Genia will often look to attack the South African defence close to the ruck in an attempt to expose the slow lateral defense of many of the Boks forwards. The midfield battle looks evenly matched: McCabe looks promising but AAC hasn't really excelled this year, while Olivier is generally reliable (but very predictable) while De Jongh looks talented. I give Australia the advantage on the wings too - Basson and Mvovo are quality players, but O'Connor and Ioane are incredibly dangerous, and (more importantly) are actually likely to have some quality ball to work with. Likewise Australia have huge a big advantage at fullback as Beale is in my opinion the best fullback in the world, and while I rate Aplon I think he is far better suited to the wing. The Boks certainly can't afford to kick aimlessly as the likes of Ioane, O'Connor, Beale, and Cooper are devastating on the counter attack.</p><p></p><p>I feel South Africa's best chance of winning will be to adopt a very forward orientated game and attempt to bash Australia into submission up front (the selection of the likes of Johnson and Rossouw points to this too). However I feel Australia's ability to turnover the ball in the loose, and huge advantage in the backline (particularly with their counter-attacking ability) will mean they are too good for South Africa - I'm picking Australia to win this match by about 15 points</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Darwin, post: 420618, member: 24910"] Reasonably predictable lineups selected by both sides. The only slight surprise in the Australian lineup is the selection of Simmons over Sharpe at lock, and McCabe at 12. Simmons certainly deserves his spot on form, though Sharpe did have a very good Super Rugby season in my opinion. I quite like the selection of McCabe at 12; he runs great lines in attack and could very effective running off Coopers shoulder. He is also a very solid defensive player. His major issue is his lack of experience, but I feel if he takes his chances he may be able to secure himself the 12 jeresy for the RWC. Man-for-man I believe Australia has the better team. It will be interesting to see how the Aussie scrum goes; Kepu and Alexander are both good with the ball in hand but neither are great scrummagers in my opinion. South Africa possibly lack the front row to expose this though; I do rate Kruger and Greyling, but they do lack experience at this level. Both teams have solid locks, but I'd give Australia a slight advantage here. One area where Australia look to have a clear advantage in the loose-forwards. I don't rate Ashley Johnson at all as his defense and work-rate are poor; I don't think McCalman has been in great form but I'd take him over Johnson any day. Rossouw will add plenty of physicality to the Boks forward pack, but I feel he lacks the speed these days to play in the loose-forwards. I expect Genia and co. will look to exploit the Boks down the blindside. Elsom will certainly need to pull out a big game to justify his inclusion ahead of the impressive Higginbotham. Pocock has a huge advantage over Stegmann on the openside too; not only is he a superior player, but I feel he will be better supported by his fellow loosies at the breakdown than Stegmann will be. Again Australia look to have a huge advantage in the halves and Genia and Cooper are world-class. I expect Cooper and Genia will often look to attack the South African defence close to the ruck in an attempt to expose the slow lateral defense of many of the Boks forwards. The midfield battle looks evenly matched: McCabe looks promising but AAC hasn't really excelled this year, while Olivier is generally reliable (but very predictable) while De Jongh looks talented. I give Australia the advantage on the wings too - Basson and Mvovo are quality players, but O'Connor and Ioane are incredibly dangerous, and (more importantly) are actually likely to have some quality ball to work with. Likewise Australia have huge a big advantage at fullback as Beale is in my opinion the best fullback in the world, and while I rate Aplon I think he is far better suited to the wing. The Boks certainly can't afford to kick aimlessly as the likes of Ioane, O'Connor, Beale, and Cooper are devastating on the counter attack. I feel South Africa's best chance of winning will be to adopt a very forward orientated game and attempt to bash Australia into submission up front (the selection of the likes of Johnson and Rossouw points to this too). However I feel Australia's ability to turnover the ball in the loose, and huge advantage in the backline (particularly with their counter-attacking ability) will mean they are too good for South Africa - I'm picking Australia to win this match by about 15 points [/QUOTE]
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Tri Nations 2009-2011
Tri Nations: Wallabies - Springboks @ ANZ Stadium, Sydney (23-07-2011, 11:00 GMT)
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