The Countries in Rugby World Cup 2015?

[Me 1]

Rugby World Cup 2011 in now over, and I think most would agree, it's been a great world cup. Some fantastic moments and fantastic games, providing some great moments for the sport, and congrats to the All Blacks! But, none the less, it's over. So, roll on 2015!
England, Wales, Scotland, Ireland, France, Italy, Argentina, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, Samoa and Tonga have automatically qualified for the event. Who else could qualify? Assuming they keep the same number of qualifiers from each continent, this is what we get:-
Europe-2 spots
Americas-2 spots
Asia-1 spot
Africa-1 spot
Oceania-1 spot
Repechage round-1 spot for Europe, Americas, Africa and Asia. 1 spot in the world cup.

The Possible Candidates
Europe
Georgia-The superpower of the region below the six nations.
Russia-Qualified for this world cup, has plenty of potential to get better with it's governments backing.
Romania-Qualified for every world cup to date, and despite dropping in quality in recent years, don't expect it to go out without a fight.
Portugal-Qualified for RWC 2007. A decent side with some quality individuals. Can they reach their second world cup?
Spain-Qualified for RWC 1999. Some good players here, could potentially sneak in.
Belgium-Have been improving. They are unlikely to qualify directly, but could be a dark horse to sneak a repechage spot.

Americas
Canada-Never failed to make the world cup yet, and don't look like they're going to fail any time soon.
USA-Failed to make the 1995, but made every other one. Very likely qualifier.
Uruguay-Made 2 world cups in 1999 and 2003. Could well make 2015.
Chile-Never made the world cup before, but arguably the best that haven't.
Brazil-Has been improving dramatically in recent years, but world cup qualification is probably a long way off. Could be a dark horse for a repechage spot however.

Asia
Japan-Dominates the region. Surely will be thinking about how far they will go in the world cup, not how far they will get in qualification.
Hong Kong-Came 2nd in the Asia 5 nations this year. Could qualify for the repechage round.
Kazakhstan-Came 2nd in last years Asia 5 nations. Another repechage candidate?
Sri Lanka- Dropped out of the Asia 5 nations this year, but no one expected them to get there in the first place. Another dark horse?
Korea-Once arguably the best team in Asia, have dropped behind recently though.
UAE-Shocked everyone with 3rd place in the Asia 5 nations, but the large number of ex-pats in their team could make them unsustainable.

Africa
Namibia-Qualified for the last three world cups, will want to continue that.
Morocco-Been a strong team with Top 14 players in. Qualification isn't out of their grasp.
Zimbabwe-Qualified for 1987 and 1991. They are finally recovering from the mass exodus of their players to play for other countries. They are probably ready to challenge the best in Africa now.
Cameroon-Has a lot of Top 14 professionals, and has managed to convince all of them (bar Arnauld Tchougong) to represent them. Could steamroller the rest of Africa if they get them together on a regular basis.
Algeria-Not sure if they can qualify seeing as they aren't full IRB members. Could be a surprise package, especially with the number of Alegrian and Algerian qualified players playing in France.

Oceania
Fiji-Let's face it, no one else will even threaten them. No repechage from Oceania, so no others stand a chance.

My guess:
Europe 1:Georgia
Europe 2:Russia
Americas 1:Canada
Americas 2:USA
Asia 1:Japan
Africa 1:Cameroon
Oceania 1:Fiji

Repechage
Europeortugal
Americas:Chile
Asia:Kazakhstan
Africa:Zimbabwe
Repechage Winner:Chile

Of course the qualifying format could be completely different, but what your take on this?

 

[Toko_11]

Although i wold love to see new teams in the WC i doubt that Romania will fail to get either Europe two or at least the Repechage spot.
I can't say much about Chile but In my opinion Uruguay will dominate them.. i have seen Uruguayan U20 team play and they were great played more like tier 1 U20 team rather than a side that rarely manages to qualify.

 

[smartcooky]

In the Africa section, I have to wonder why Madagascar don't do a lot better. Rugby is very very popular there, with club matches drawing crowds of 10,000 plus on a regular basis? Its popular enought to be widely reported in the newspapers and matches are regularly broadcast live on television.

Madagascar boasts over 400 Rugby Clubs and 22,000 players. It has an amateur National club competition called the Top 8 that is very similar in structure to the Argentina's regionalised national club rugby chanmpionship.

The National side, the "Makis" play to big crowds in their home matches even have their own "haka".

 

[ZeFrenchy]

Chile beating Uruguay for a repechage spot is kind of a long shot. Chile won the last match between them, but that hadn'd happenned in almost ten years. I agree that Chile are perhaps the unluckiest; they'd probably make it easily in Asia, Africa and perhaps Europe (to the repachage round, I mean).

 

[nickdnz]

In the Africa section, I have to wonder why Madagascar don't do a lot better. Rugby is very very popular there, with club matches drawing crowds of 10,000 plus on a regular basis? Its popular enought to be widely reported in the newspapers and matches are regularly broadcast live on television.

Madagascar boasts over 400 Rugby Clubs and 22,000 players. It has an amateur National club competition called the Top 8 that is very similar in structure to the Argentina's regionalised national club rugby chanmpionship.

The National side, the "Makis" play to big crowds in their home matches even have their own "haka".

Wow, talk about really slipping through the cracks. According to wiki, they lost to Italy 9-17 in 1970 which isn't too bad. But in 2002 they lost to Namibia 116-0.

Another team which I always wonder how they keep missing out is Kenya. They've certainly invested highly in the 7's aside game.

To be honest, I'd like any African team other than Namibia to qualify. Namibia often play pretty conservative rugby, and there just doesn't seem like there is the platform for the sport to grow (maybe that will change with the Namibia Weltwitschias in the Vodacom Cup?). Regardless, the population of Namibia is only 2 million (which I suppose is rich from a country with 4 million), but it seems that rugby may benefit more if a nation like Madagascar (20 million), Morocco (30 million) Kenya (40 million).

In many ways, the current world cup format is pretty frustrating, as it's over 100 teams fighting for 20 spots, and rugby isn't big enough worldwide to enjoy the privilege of making countries fight it out for one of a few spots they can possibly get. I don't understand why they don't increase to pool size by one or two spots. Yes, some countries would get thumped, but it would also mean some of the teir 2 and teir three countries stand a chance of getting a RWC win (which is why the sport doesn't grow that quickly). Who wouldn't like to see a few more teams? And surely adding a couple more teams in the World Cup can only increase viewing figures in those countries.

 

[psychic duck]

Wow, talk about really slipping through the cracks. According to wiki, they lost to Italy 9-17 in 1970 which isn't too bad. But in 2002 they lost to Namibia 116-0.

Another team which I always wonder how they keep missing out is Kenya. They've certainly invested highly in the 7's aside game.

To be honest, I'd like any African team other than Namibia to qualify. Namibia often play pretty conservative rugby, and there just doesn't seem like there is the platform for the sport to grow (maybe that will change with the Namibia Weltwitschias in the Vodacom Cup?). Regardless, the population of Namibia is only 2 million (which I suppose is rich from a country with 4 million), but it seems that rugby may benefit more if a nation like Madagascar (20 million), Morocco (30 million) Kenya (40 million).

In many ways, the current world cup format is pretty frustrating, as it's over 100 teams fighting for 20 spots, and rugby isn't big enough worldwide to enjoy the privilege of making countries fight it out for one of a few spots they can possibly get. I don't understand why they don't increase to pool size by one or two spots. Yes, some countries would get thumped, but it would also mean some of the teir 2 and teir three countries stand a chance of getting a RWC win (which is why the sport doesn't grow that quickly). Who wouldn't like to see a few more teams? And surely adding a couple more teams in the World Cup can only increase viewing figures in those countries.

The population is 2 million, but 90% of the country is black and don't care at all about rugby, I also wonder why Kenya hasn't challenged Namibia

I disagree with expanding the tournament, if anything it should be made smaller to 16 teams so all the rest periods are even, there are only about 18 reasonably competitive teams to be honest

by the way that Madagascar haka is awesome!!!

 

[gingergenius]

do the madagascans get to do a haka because the people migrated from Austronesia?

 

[LittleGuy]

There have been rumours of a "World Trophy" tournament replacing the current repechage system.

Realistically I think that we will see similar teams to the last several world cups, Russia has improved dramatically and Romania has stablized since there 1990's early 2000's severe struggles. Portugal and Uruguay are the two sides that might get back in also depending on where the spots are allocated. Spain probably has a miracle shot at qualifying.

Namibia would be in the most trouble to qualify if Africa loses their spot and its not inconceivable that they will lose out to Morocco, Tunisia or someone else in regional qualification(they also had a draw with Ivory Coast not too long ago). I think Portugal are actually a slightly superior side to Namibia and Uruguay is about level so it might help the standard of play if one of them comes in for 2015.

 

[Me 1]

In the Africa section, I have to wonder why Madagascar don't do a lot better. Rugby is very very popular there, with club matches drawing crowds of 10,000 plus on a regular basis? Its popular enought to be widely reported in the newspapers and matches are regularly broadcast live on television.

Madagascar boasts over 400 Rugby Clubs and 22,000 players. It has an amateur National club competition called the Top 8 that is very similar in structure to the Argentina's regionalised national club rugby chanmpionship.

The National side, the "Makis" play to big crowds in their home matches even have their own "haka".

I think the reason that Madagascar isn't a much better side is that it's one of the poorest countries on earth, meaning that many of people aren't fed very well. Their diet isn't nutritious enough, meaning they are not very healthy. Apparently their forwards aren't much bigger than their backs.
Btw I love their Haka, I bet they stole the bit where they pump their arms up and down off 'Jonathan' on S4C

As for Chile over Uruguay, I think I went for them because Chile U20 side beat Uruguay's this year to qualify for the next junior world trophy, and I think they have more professionals in France. I know Uruguay U20 is very good, so Chile must have played well to beat them. But I could be wrong after all, Uruguay might well beat Chile.

I've seen rumours of the world trophy before, but it was supposed to have started before rwc 2007, never mind 2011 or 2015, so I find it unlikely. But I would like it to happen all the same.

 

[M Two One]

Morocco would qualify before Cameroon and I don't see either nation qualifying for 2015 over Namibia. Madagascar don't get to play much, but their results over the past years have shown a significant drop in quality, which is a shame because they're an interesting bunch aren't they? Getting blasted 49-0 over the summer by a resurgent Zimbabwe team that hasn't been beaten in over a year isn't helping them much either.

Can anyone tell me how Papua New Guinea isn't better at rugby union? Is it that the country just wants to focus on league entirely or what?

 

[Me 1]

You could be right concerning Morocco, I went for Cameroon as a long shot really. I just have a sneaky feeling that if they can get everyone together more often they stand a good chance. Although I disagree concerning Namibia. I could be wrong but I just think Namibia's time is up, and the rest of the continent is catching up to them very quickly.

 

[M Two One]

You could be right concerning Morocco, I went for Cameroon as a long shot really. I just have a sneaky feeling that if they can get everyone together more often they stand a good chance. Although I disagree concerning Namibia. I could be wrong but I just think Namibia's time is up, and the rest of the continent is catching up to them very quickly.

I can't see Namibia losing out on the next world cup unless a nation like Morocco or Zimbabwe really turn it on. I do agree that Namibia are slowly letting the rest of the pack catch them though and it will be only a matter of time before one or two nations are better than they are. They need to get more involved in competitions to prevent a decline as even though more of their players are playing in bigger leagues these days, it isn't anywhere enough to keep them second on the continent forever. Several other African nations have more players in the French rugby system than Namibia.

 

[Seaton]

I also wonder why Kenya hasn't challenged Namibia

It's a real pity that many of the Kenyan Sevens players are students or have full time jobs, if they could participate more regularily in XVs it would be great and their results would certainly pick up.

As for Madagascar, I imagine the current political situation can't be of much help, would imagine that other teams would struggle to get funding from their unions/ governments to go and play a country that is run by a government that many do not recognize.

 

[LittleGuy]

Papua New Guinea does struggle in Union because they play League almost exclusively, they are still the "next best" side in Oceania but were defeated handidly in qualifying for 2011, I think much of that side were also League converts to Union. They must be one of the only countries where they are competivie in league but have almost nothing in Union.

 

[psychic duck]

do the madagascans get to do a haka because the people migrated from Austronesia?

There have been rumours of a "World Trophy" tournament replacing the current repechage system.

Realistically I think that we will see similar teams to the last several world cups, Russia has improved dramatically and Romania has stablized since there 1990's early 2000's severe struggles. Portugal and Uruguay are the two sides that might get back in also depending on where the spots are allocated. Spain probably has a miracle shot at qualifying.

Namibia would be in the most trouble to qualify if Africa loses their spot and its not inconceivable that they will lose out to Morocco, Tunisia or someone else in regional qualification(they also had a draw with Ivory Coast not too long ago). I think Portugal are actually a slightly superior side to Namibia and Uruguay is about level so it might help the standard of play if one of them comes in for 2015.

I can't see Namibia losing out on the next world cup unless a nation like Morocco or Zimbabwe really turn it on. I do agree that Namibia are slowly letting the rest of the pack catch them though and it will be only a matter of time before one or two nations are better than they are. They need to get more involved in competitions to prevent a decline as even though more of their players are playing in bigger leagues these days, it isn't anywhere enough to keep them second on the continent forever. Several other African nations have more players in the French rugby system than Namibia.

full list of African players who play in ProD2/Top14/Aviva Prem/Championship/Currie Cup

Cameroon
Gambo Adamou (Tarbes)
Robins Tchale-Watchou (Perpignan)
Arsène Nnomo (Agen)
Alain-Bertrand Nuetsa Fotso (Colomiers)
Arnauld Tchougong (Lyon)
Simon Christian Njewel (Lyon)

Kenya
Daniel Adongo (Sharks)

Algeria
Said Hireche (Aurillac)
Salim Tebani (Oyonnax)

Ivory Coast
Bakary Meite (Beziers)
Eugene N'Zi (Lyon)
Silvere Tian (Agen)

Morocco
Abdelatif Boutaty (Bayonne)
Mohamed Gouasmia (Perigueux)
Jalil Narjissi (Agen)

Nigeria
Joe Ajuwa (London Welsh)
James Doherty (Esher)

Senegal
Yogane Correa (Albi)

Tunisia
Sabri Gmir (Beziers)

Zimbabwe
Dave Ewers (Cornish Pirates)
Edward Danteni Mama (Leicester)
Marco Mama (Bristol)
Garth Ziegler (Bayonne)

Namibia
Jacques Burger (Saracens)
Johan Coetzee (Racing-Métro)
Danie Dames (Leopards)
Ryan de la Harpe (Moseley)
Rohan Kitshoff (Western Province)
Conrad Marais (Montpellier)
Jacques Niuewenhuis (Aurillac)
PJ van Lill (Aurillac)
Skipper Badenhorst (Cheetahs)

I don't think Madagscar do an actual "haka" I think it's an African war dance more likely

I agree that Portugal are probably slightly ahead of Namibia but quite even

for me the bottom of the rankings would be like this

Romania
Russia
Portugal
Namibia
Uruguay

 

[M Two One]

Nice job grabbing that information. I would also look into Fédérale 1 as an important league as well when considering how many North African and Cameroonian internationals play in the league. I know you're aware that there are also some Georgian internationals playing at that level in France.

 

[Gavin]

Would like to see the number of nations in the World Cup increased so we could see more teams who wouldn't normally get worldwide coverage. However, this is never going to happen as I guess it would be a nightmare to workout.

 

[M Two One]

Would like to see the number of nations in the World Cup increased so we could see more teams who wouldn't normally get worldwide coverage. However, this is never going to happen as I guess it would be a nightmare to workout.

I'd like that too, but as psychic duck pointed out, the schedule would be easier to sort out with only 16 teams. However, I don't agree with reducing the number to 16 teams. I think that the IRB will likely increase the number of teams to 24 for 2023 the earliest.

 

[igorBastia]

I think the reason that Madagascar isn't a much better side is that it's one of the poorest countries on earth, meaning that many of people aren't fed very well. Their diet isn't nutritious enough, meaning they are not very healthy. Apparently their forwards aren't much bigger than their backs.
Btw I love their Haka, I bet they stole the bit where they pump their arms up and down off 'Jonathan' on S4C

As for Chile over Uruguay, I think I went for them because Chile U20 side beat Uruguay's this year to qualify for the next junior world trophy, and I think they have more professionals in France. I know Uruguay U20 is very good, so Chile must have played well to beat them. But I could be wrong after all, Uruguay might well beat Chile.

I've seen rumours of the world trophy before, but it was supposed to have started before rwc 2007, never mind 2011 or 2015, so I find it unlikely. But I would like it to happen all the same.

To have visiting Madagascar this people need to be helped, this is a great nation with a courageous and nice people.

 

[gingergenius]

This topic has turned into one of the most interesting on the forums for a while...

It's thrown up two points for me. I don't know for sure, but I'm guessing the majority of those African players (excluding Namibia & Zimbabwe) listed by psychicduck have grown up and learned their rugby in France or England. Which means that some of these African countries are in a similar position to the PI nations, with Samoa and Tonga in particular drawing a lot of players from New Zealand's PI population. Samoa etc. would not be as good were it not for their NZ born players - equally then, if the numbers of African players in English and French rugby continues to increase, then we could see some decent experience coming into these African national teams.

Next point is where to grow rugby. We must all agree that now, rugby union is a major world sport. Not with the moneymaking power of football, nor does it have a country like India or USA fully behind it, but it is a big sport, and you'd think now things should keep getting better and better.

The way I see it, there's three main areas in which to concentrate growth -

1) Sustain struggling/ developing 'tier 1' nations. If the top of the sport fails it will never grow. I look in particular at Scotland as a struggling nation, not because of results but because of lack of interest. Italy are in a similar place to Scotland, but at least they've improved rather than declined. And Argentina's boom needs to continue to be encouraged. Other tier 1 guys have it pretty good.

2) My first class of developing nation - ones for economic development. In Russia and Japan, rugby has two markets that aren't saturated by other sports, and both already have half decent national teams. Investment (time and money) into these two could produce major benefits, especially considering Russia's influence in Eastern Europe. Brazil fits into this category too, they just don't have the national side to back it up with yet. USA is also worth a punt, and Canada falls into this group too. There's money to be made from these guys.

3) This group includes all other nations where rugby plays a significant part in national culture. Pacific Islands certainly, Madagascar (never knew about that one), Kenya, Georgia, Romania, potentially Uruguay and Chile, PNG if they ever want to play more than 7s or league. These are countries that make the world cups interesting. These are countries that, with a push in the right direction, could become as successful as Fiji etc. have been.

All these make for a more competitive world cup... So let's put our funding here please!