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The Andre de Waal High Kicks Theorem
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<blockquote data-quote="Pontefractious" data-source="post: 1165395" data-attributes="member: 88057"><p>You have just redefined the theorem. Your original definition held that upon execution of the kick, possession stops being 100% certainty and becomes a 50% certainty. You have modified that definition so that possession stops being a 100% certainty. And you omit an important dynamic - forward motion. In kicking the ball you are sacrificing percentage probability of possession in return for a gain in forward motion. In the form of rugby played today, if you retain possession the largest probability is that you will tackled with little or no forward motion gain. It is unfortunately the most frequent outcome which is one of the reasons why rugby today is so boring. The second largest probability is that you will find sufficient room to initiate a passing movement, but these are usually short lived because of the lack of an effective off-side rule and the inability of any player to execute a decent pass (look at some rugby film from the 60s and you will see what I mean). So 90% of the time you are back with a tackle and a ruck (see probability one). If you kick the ball there is a high probability of forward motion but a concomitant reduction in the probability of future possession. Ability instantly to assess field status and calculate these probabilities is an important skill in the game.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Pontefractious, post: 1165395, member: 88057"] You have just redefined the theorem. Your original definition held that upon execution of the kick, possession stops being 100% certainty and becomes a 50% certainty. You have modified that definition so that possession stops being a 100% certainty. And you omit an important dynamic - forward motion. In kicking the ball you are sacrificing percentage probability of possession in return for a gain in forward motion. In the form of rugby played today, if you retain possession the largest probability is that you will tackled with little or no forward motion gain. It is unfortunately the most frequent outcome which is one of the reasons why rugby today is so boring. The second largest probability is that you will find sufficient room to initiate a passing movement, but these are usually short lived because of the lack of an effective off-side rule and the inability of any player to execute a decent pass (look at some rugby film from the 60s and you will see what I mean). So 90% of the time you are back with a tackle and a ruck (see probability one). If you kick the ball there is a high probability of forward motion but a concomitant reduction in the probability of future possession. Ability instantly to assess field status and calculate these probabilities is an important skill in the game. [/QUOTE]
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The Andre de Waal High Kicks Theorem
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