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The Andre de Waal High Kicks Theorem
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<blockquote data-quote="Andre de Waal" data-source="post: 1165299" data-attributes="member: 87905"><p>Thanks for all the input, really appreciated. I have repeatedly stated my motive for posting this Theorem. Please note that I did list the variables which affect possession recovery probability. The Theorem is not pointless: In a nutshell, if you kick the ball in the air, you don't have it anymore.</p><p>My frustration remains with a one-dimensional strategy (a la Springboks, of high-kicks, even on attack) and a lack of DIVERSE tactics, e.g. retaining that 100% possession and playing the ball wide, or at the very least cross-field kicks, dinks/grubbers to turn the backline, and/or deep kicks for territorial advantage, which keep the opposition guessing. </p><p>Any opposition team against the Springboks in a high-pressure game knows exactly what to expect: A forwards-oriented match (6/2 or even 7/1 bench split), and lots of high kicks resulting in repeated challenges for possession, with at the very least a 50% chance (thanks for the validation BPM!) of overturning possession.</p><p>And, of course, EVERYTHING relies on a kicker's ability and consistency (the most important Theorem variable (Rider)).</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Andre de Waal, post: 1165299, member: 87905"] Thanks for all the input, really appreciated. I have repeatedly stated my motive for posting this Theorem. Please note that I did list the variables which affect possession recovery probability. The Theorem is not pointless: In a nutshell, if you kick the ball in the air, you don't have it anymore. My frustration remains with a one-dimensional strategy (a la Springboks, of high-kicks, even on attack) and a lack of DIVERSE tactics, e.g. retaining that 100% possession and playing the ball wide, or at the very least cross-field kicks, dinks/grubbers to turn the backline, and/or deep kicks for territorial advantage, which keep the opposition guessing. Any opposition team against the Springboks in a high-pressure game knows exactly what to expect: A forwards-oriented match (6/2 or even 7/1 bench split), and lots of high kicks resulting in repeated challenges for possession, with at the very least a 50% chance (thanks for the validation BPM!) of overturning possession. And, of course, EVERYTHING relies on a kicker's ability and consistency (the most important Theorem variable (Rider)). [/QUOTE]
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