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The Andre de Waal High Kicks Theorem
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<blockquote data-quote="Andre de Waal" data-source="post: 1161802" data-attributes="member: 87905"><p><u>Preamble:</u> As with any other team ball sport, possession is the <u>critical success factor</u> in Rugby. </p><p></p><p>In no other ball sport, where the objective is to score goals, tries or touchdowns, does a team intentionally kick or strike the ball to/at the opposition in the hopes of retrieving it. </p><p><u>Observation:</u> The Box Kick, or "Garry Owen" Up-and-Under high kick tends to be utilized when a team's conventional attacking tactics with ball in hand are ineffective or continue to prove unsuccessful.</p><p>While widely touted as an attacking strategy, a High Kick de facto <u>instantly</u> transforms ball possession from <u>Certainty</u> to <u>Chance</u> (hence the recently introduced term "contestable"). </p><p></p><p><u>THEOREM:</u> The instant the ball leaves the kicker's boot, the attacking team's Ball Possession is immediately modified from a <u>guaranteed 100% possession</u> to a <u>Possession Probability of 1 in 2</u> (50%). </p><p>This Possession Probability can be further adversely affected by the following variables:</p><p>- The height, distance and accuracy of the kick</p><p>- The wind speed</p><p>- The attacking team's charge-down ability</p><p>- The defending team's blocking strategy</p><p>- The relevant players' speed and challenging ability </p><p></p><p>André de Waal</p><p>George, South Africa</p><p>23 Oct 2023</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Andre de Waal, post: 1161802, member: 87905"] [U]Preamble:[/U] As with any other team ball sport, possession is the [U]critical success factor[/U] in Rugby. In no other ball sport, where the objective is to score goals, tries or touchdowns, does a team intentionally kick or strike the ball to/at the opposition in the hopes of retrieving it. [U]Observation:[/U] The Box Kick, or "Garry Owen" Up-and-Under high kick tends to be utilized when a team's conventional attacking tactics with ball in hand are ineffective or continue to prove unsuccessful. While widely touted as an attacking strategy, a High Kick de facto [U]instantly[/U] transforms ball possession from [U]Certainty[/U] to [U]Chance[/U] (hence the recently introduced term "contestable"). [U]THEOREM:[/U] The instant the ball leaves the kicker's boot, the attacking team's Ball Possession is immediately modified from a [U]guaranteed 100% possession[/U] to a [U]Possession Probability of 1 in 2[/U] (50%). This Possession Probability can be further adversely affected by the following variables: - The height, distance and accuracy of the kick - The wind speed - The attacking team's charge-down ability - The defending team's blocking strategy - The relevant players' speed and challenging ability André de Waal George, South Africa 23 Oct 2023 [/QUOTE]
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The Andre de Waal High Kicks Theorem
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