A pretty strong looking Brumbies side. Interesting to see them return to the 10. Toomua, 12. Lealiifano combo that has been wokring well all season, with McCabe dropping back to the bench. The outside backs look very dangerous with Mogg back. Very surprised to see ex-Waikato player Jordan Smiler starting for the Brumbies. He has never really stood out to me - I would have thought he would have been well behind the likes of C Faingaa and Auelua (though he is very good as an impact player).
Anyways, onto the team the really matters....
I'm not surprised to see quite a few changes in the Highlanders side this weekend - some I agree with, some I'm not sure about. Fia starts at TH prop which I don't mind, as I don't think there is much (if anything) between King and Fia, and Fia is probably the better scrummager of the two. Though MackIntosh impressed last weekend I worry he is going to struggle against a very good Brumbies front-row (which should be the Wallabies front-row in my opinion, but that is a different story...). Personally I would have preferred Bekhuis over Hoeata at lock, though am happy Hoeata is finally out of the 6 jersey. I'm not happy with Ioane at 6, but to be fair he his handling hasn't let him down for the Highlanders yet, so it is only fair that I give him a chance. I'm still not sure having him doing 20 'hit-ups' a day in the midfield is the best plan, but hopefully Joseph know's what he is doing.....
A change in the halves was due, and I'm glad that both Tanaka and Parker are starting this weekend, as they formed an excellent combination for Otago during the ITM Cup. Tanaka plays like Aaron Smith did last season - hopefully this will help the Highlanders re-discover last seasons early form. Parker is a good young player, and I'm looking forward to him getting a chance at this level. He is an excellent goal-kicker too, so we probably have a good chance if the game is tight. The only issue with the Tanaka/Parker combination is their lack of size. Both are courageous players, but give up 30-40 kg to many of the Brumbies forwards (and even some of their backs)
I'm not convinced with Burleigh at centre. I know Emery got a knock in the last match, but if he is fit enough to be on the bench he should be fit enough to start in my opinion. Burleigh is a good distributor with an intelligent kicking game, but I do feel these talents are wasted at 13 - if they really want to pair him and Nonu in the midfield I would have him at 12 with Nonu outside (though that would again weaken the defense in the inside channels). I do worry about Burlieghs ability to tackle the likes of Andrew Smith, Speight, and Tomane, who are all big guys. It is great to have Poki back (especially with Popoali'i out injured) - hopefully we can get him (and Gear and Smith) some quality ball to work with.
I say it every week, but on paper this Highlanders side
could (and perhaps even
should) win this match. The key is going to be matching the Brumbies up front, though I suspect we may struggle at scrum time. We need to focus on producing quick and importantly clear ball for the backs to work with, as so far this season we have been producing slow ball that consistently just squirts randomly out the side/back of the breakdown. The backs need to be running straighter (I'm looking at you Ma'a...) as if we can give Poki, Gear and Smith some quality ball we could actually score some tries
Heart says Highlanders by 10. Head say Brumbies by 10.
