Scotland?

[Dai Perk]

Hey, my friends,

Quick poll - anyone besides me think my beloved Scotland side has a chance? What is the generally accepted prediction for how the Six will place?

My admittedly inexpert picks:

6. Italy
5. Wales
4. France
3. England
2. Ireland
1. Scotland

I know, wishful thinking... but that's why it's fun to be a fan!

Thanks y'all,

Dave

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

You'd find some consensus in this thread. https://www.therugbyforum.com/threads/predicted-6n-table-2019.42698/

Scotland have been pretty miserable away from home for a long time now and have France and England away. 1983 was their last win in Twickenham and 1999 was their last win in Paris so they'd have to end one of these streaks while also beating the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams in world rugby at home, I can't see them finishing in the top half to be honest, 2 wins at most is my prediction.

 

[bushytop]

...
6. Italy
5. Wales
4. France
3. England
2. Ireland
1. Scotland

Dave

At first glance I thought you were predicting Italy as champions...

I actually think Scotland could have a big championship this year while Ireland, England and Wales have their eye on the world cup.

 

[andysimcoe]

I'd love to say Scotland for the grand slam but it's not happening. I've seen Scotland beat England and Ireland at Murrayfield in recent years, but it was only 2015 I saw them lose to Italy. We've been saying for years now 'we're finally getting somewhere' and then pumped away from home.

However, I do think they genuinely have a chance in France this year but I cannot see them placing high due to the standard of the other teams and can't see an Scotland win against Ireland this year but I think it will be very close and could beat Wales.

Of course we could see the modern Scotland performance and they bottle it and come away with 1 win.

 

[Dai Perk]

Thanks so much, everyone, very interesting stuff. Ireland would definitely have to take a dump on the field to lose at this point, but I'll keep the hope alive... Scotland forever!

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I'm a bit worried by where Townsend was going with his centres in November and I'm confused why Dunbar is slipping down the pecking order. They really underperformed in the EOYT from my perspectives.

The squad is so thin that losing a starter like Hamish Watson or Dunbar is probably grounds for thinking they can't beat the other top four sides away from home.

Plus, England should improve with them having bolstered their coaching team last summer (I think). Wales will be dangerous without Halfpenny and an apparent slightly greater willingness to gamble and Ireland are as consistent as they come these days.

I always think even bad French sides are a terrible matchup for Scotland due to their physicality.

So yeah, I see only Wales at home as a possible win for Scotland (outside of Italy) and even that is conditional on peak side selection from Scotland and Wales ignoring players like Patchell and having a few injuries.

 

[Dai Perk]

One pundit I was listening to opined that the Irish may slip up simply by looking forward to the World Cup too much, but that felt like a stretch... From my (very limited) experience watching French teams, it seems like it depends on the day whether they decide to play hard or not. Must be an Existentialist thing.

 

[andysimcoe]

Okay I'm a bit biased but I do think Scotland could win any of their home games this year, it's not a massive stretch based on home performances of late. While I still do think Ireland will win I do think it's Scotland's game to lose and should make it a close one.
2017 when Ireland played Murrayfield Scotland obviously came away with a tight win, the first opening game in 5 championships Ireland lost - did they underestimate Scotland? Scotland won their opening 6N match for the first time in 6 championships - did they think sod it we've got nothing to lose?

Sexton was missing in that match which is probably a larger factor than some would like to admit but it shows it's possible, not being Ireland's opening game I think is possibly an advantage for Scotland - again I'm clutching at straws here.

The interesting games for me (as far as Scotland goes) will be Wales and France. Scotland are really only bookies favourite to beat Italy and many putting them on the same odds to win overall as France so it looks like their battle will be 4/5 with France. I think they should be aiming for 3/4 with Wales. An away win in St Denis will be historic and set them up well for the Welsh game.

Obviously massive ifs though and if I wasn't Scottish I'd probably dismiss Scotland down to 5th, possibly taking 4th depending on how badly France screw up.

 

[Dai Perk]

All great points. As they say with the NFL, "They don't play the games on paper," so I've decided to stay optimistic until it becomes impossible.

 

[BobbyM]

Scotland are also not helped by the fact their first choice out half will be knackered and is looking a bit on the beefy side, Laidlaw has barely had a rest, and we've just not got the depth like Ireland England or Wales do.

However, I can see us winning in France, we were extremely close to doing so last time, and although France have some exciting players coming through from the under-20 team, their EOYT results weren't great.

We'll have an epic game against Wales and hopefully the players will be right up for it given our disappointing last two performances against them. So (as per the last couple of years) I could see us winning 3 games this Six Nations.

 

[ncurd]

The reality is Scotland's record at Twickenham is abysmal and the weight of history is huge, they haven't won there in my lifetime or that of the players playing. That's one hell of a thing to overcome as Ireland's history with ABs will tell you it can happen.

Problem is this year with Ireland at home and France away. Honestly I think Scotland should be looking at 2-3 wins. They are a good side just not good enough to cause the kind of upsets that will required for a championship win.

 

[General Melchett]

The reality is Scotland's record at Twickenham is abysmal and the weight of history is huge, they haven't won there in my lifetime or that of the players playing. That's one hell of a thing to overcome as Ireland's history with ABs will tell you it can happen.

Problem is this year with Ireland at home and France away. Honestly I think Scotland should be looking at 2-3 wins. They are a good side just not good enough to cause the kind of upsets that will required for a championship win.

I think injuries and a lack of depth in various positions will hinder Scotland. The game at Twickenham is the last one of the campaign and there could easily be 6-7 first choice players missing with those deputising not having enough quality. The key games are Wales at home and France away. I think Ireland will be too strong at Murrayfield and England will win comfortably. Winning in Paris is a tall order and with home advantage we just shouldn't, on paper, be losing to Wales. Two wins would be a bit disappointing while three would represent a very good campaign.

 

[andysimcoe]

Yeah the England game is the elephant in the room and for a team like Scotland I think this is where the coaching staff have to earn their worth. What I mean is, the easier targets which would still be seen as a massive win are at home with Wales and away to France. If they can beat Ireland at home again that's obviously massive, moreso the effect it'll have on the championship and other teams.

Let's not **** about though, the same year (2017) Scotland beat Ireland they were absolutely humped at Twickenham. Most years England score double Scotland's. It being the last game makes the decision easy, Scotland have to put the strongest team out, if it was the 3rd game I'd question whether it's worth potentially injury certain players and just aim to compete for the other games. I'm not suggesting pulling a trick like Italy and I know it's not what fans want to hear.

However as it is the last game I'd like Scotland to at least make it difficult for England and be within 10 points.

 

[Dai Perk]

Even I don't hold out much hope for beating Ireland, that seems like too big a hill to climb, but if Scotland can win at Twickenham, I'll consider this a hugely successful campaign.

 

[oj121]

I think injuries and a lack of depth in various positions will hinder Scotland. The game at Twickenham is the last one of the campaign and there could easily be 6-7 first choice players missing with those deputising not having enough quality. The key games are Wales at home and France away. I think Ireland will be too strong at Murrayfield and England will win comfortably. Winning in Paris is a tall order and with home advantage we just shouldn't, on paper, be losing to Wales. Two wins would be a bit disappointing while three would represent a very good campaign.

I have to ask why 'shouldnt' you lose? Wales are 3rd in the World are arguably stronger in every position that Scotland? I would argue England are more realistic....

 

[General Melchett]

I have to ask why 'shouldnt' you lose? Wales are 3rd in the World are arguably stronger in every position that Scotland? I would argue England are more realistic....

Because home advantage is massive as has been proven in recent years. Wales were comfortably beaten at Murrayfield two years ago and I believe Scotland would have won four years ago if it weren't for Russell's harsh red card which led to a narrow win for Wales. If this match were in Cardiff then I'd have Wales as strong favourites. Simple as that.