Menu
Forums
New posts
Search forums
What's new
New posts
Latest activity
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles and first posts only
Search titles only
By:
New posts
Search forums
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Help Support The Rugby Forum :
Forums
Rugby Union
Tier Two & Three Rugby
Rugby World Cup 2019 Qualifying & Repechage Tournament
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 910499" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>For Germany and the Cook Islands, they still have the return leg so in theory can still win the play-off... but all probability is now against it as they now have such a large point deficit <span style="font-size: 10px">(Germany)</span> and have used up their home advantage <span style="font-size: 10px">(Cook Islands)</span>.</p><p></p><p>So Samoa is rated 100% to make Pool A with Japan/Ireland/Scotland, and then Germany and Hong Kong 100% to be in the Repechage Tournament.</p><p></p><p>Namibia and Kenya each get past one more hurdle unscathed - Namibia also pick up another bonus point and 0.38 RP.</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Projected Probabilities: </strong></span></p><p></p><p><strong>Pool B as Africa 1:</strong> Namibia 81% <span style="font-size: 10px">+7</span>, Kenya 19% <span style="font-size: 10px">-7</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Uganda <0.1% NC</span></p><p><strong>Pool A as Play-Off Winner:</strong> Samoa <u><strong>100%</strong></u><span style="font-size: 10px"> +0.3</span>,<span style="font-size: 10px"> Germany <u>0%</u> -0.3</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"></span></p><p>Repechage Tournament Participants:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Play-Off Loser: <strong>Germany <u>100%</u></strong> <span style="font-size: 10px">+0.3</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Samoa <u>0%</u> -0.3</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Americas 3: <strong>Canada</strong></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Africa 2: Kenya 77% <span style="font-size: 10px">+6</span>, Namibia 19% <span style="font-size: 10px">-6</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Uganda 3.5% +1.0, Tunisia 1.0% +0.5, Zimbabwe <u><0.1%</u> -0.5, Morocco <u>0%</u> -0.8</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Asia/Oceania: <strong>Hong Kong <u>100%</u></strong> <span style="font-size: 10px">+<0.1</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Cook Islands <u>0%</u> -<0.1</span></li> </ul><p><strong>Pool B as Repechage Winner:</strong> Hong Kong 43% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Canada 37% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Germany 8.5% <span style="font-size: 10px">+0.5</span>, Kenya 7.5% <span style="font-size: 10px">+0.5, Namibia 4.0% -0.5, Samoa <u>0%</u> -0.2</span></p><p>Repechage Runner-Up: Canada 32% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Hong Kong 30% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Germany 17% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Kenya 15% <span style="font-size: 10px">+1</span>, Namibia 5.0%<span style="font-size: 10px"> -1.5, Uganda 0.1% NC, Other <0.1% NC, Samoa 0% -0.1%</span></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>to any Pool (3):</strong> Samoa <u><strong>100%</strong></u> <span style="font-size: 10px">+0.1</span>, Namibia 85% <span style="font-size: 10px">+7</span>, Hong Kong 43% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Canada 37% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Kenya 26% <span style="font-size: 10px">-7</span>, Germany 8.5% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC, Uganda <0.1% NC</span></p><p></p><p>------------------------------</p><p></p><p>Next weekend is Kenya vs Uganda. With home advantage, Kenya are favoured 100% on current rankings <span style="font-size: 10px">(but the model allows for some error so gives them 95.5%)</span>.</p><p>Uganda still have 3 games to go against lower-ranked Tunisia, Morocco and Zimbabwe - and Uganda have home advantage in every single one.</p><p></p><p>A win would suddenly make Uganda the 76% favourite to qualify as Africa 2, and Kenya's RWC qualification hopes would drop to 2.0%.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">(it would substantially help Namibia, Canada, Hong Kong and Germany's qualification chances though, as Uganda would still only be at 1.2%)</span></p><p></p><p>This game Kenya can't afford to lose.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 910499, member: 73940"] For Germany and the Cook Islands, they still have the return leg so in theory can still win the play-off... but all probability is now against it as they now have such a large point deficit [SIZE=2](Germany)[/SIZE] and have used up their home advantage [SIZE=2](Cook Islands)[/SIZE]. So Samoa is rated 100% to make Pool A with Japan/Ireland/Scotland, and then Germany and Hong Kong 100% to be in the Repechage Tournament. Namibia and Kenya each get past one more hurdle unscathed - Namibia also pick up another bonus point and 0.38 RP. [SIZE=5][B]Projected Probabilities: [/B][/SIZE] [B]Pool B as Africa 1:[/B] Namibia 81% [SIZE=2]+7[/SIZE], Kenya 19% [SIZE=2]-7[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Uganda <0.1% NC[/SIZE] [B]Pool A as Play-Off Winner:[/B] Samoa [U][B]100%[/B][/U][SIZE=2] +0.3[/SIZE],[SIZE=2] Germany [U]0%[/U] -0.3 [/SIZE] Repechage Tournament Participants: [LIST] [*]Play-Off Loser: [B]Germany [U]100%[/U][/B] [SIZE=2]+0.3[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Samoa [U]0%[/U] -0.3[/SIZE] [*]Americas 3: [B]Canada[/B] [*]Africa 2: Kenya 77% [SIZE=2]+6[/SIZE], Namibia 19% [SIZE=2]-6[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Uganda 3.5% +1.0, Tunisia 1.0% +0.5, Zimbabwe [U]<0.1%[/U] -0.5, Morocco [U]0%[/U] -0.8[/SIZE] [*]Asia/Oceania: [B]Hong Kong [U]100%[/U][/B] [SIZE=2]+<0.1[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Cook Islands [U]0%[/U] -<0.1[/SIZE] [/LIST] [B]Pool B as Repechage Winner:[/B] Hong Kong 43% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Canada 37% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Germany 8.5% [SIZE=2]+0.5[/SIZE], Kenya 7.5% [SIZE=2]+0.5, Namibia 4.0% -0.5, Samoa [U]0%[/U] -0.2[/SIZE] Repechage Runner-Up: Canada 32% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Hong Kong 30% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Germany 17% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Kenya 15% [SIZE=2]+1[/SIZE], Namibia 5.0%[SIZE=2] -1.5, Uganda 0.1% NC, Other <0.1% NC, Samoa 0% -0.1%[/SIZE] [B] to any Pool (3):[/B] Samoa [U][B]100%[/B][/U] [SIZE=2]+0.1[/SIZE], Namibia 85% [SIZE=2]+7[/SIZE], Hong Kong 43% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Canada 37% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Kenya 26% [SIZE=2]-7[/SIZE], Germany 8.5% [SIZE=2]NC, Uganda <0.1% NC[/SIZE] ------------------------------ Next weekend is Kenya vs Uganda. With home advantage, Kenya are favoured 100% on current rankings [SIZE=2](but the model allows for some error so gives them 95.5%)[/SIZE]. Uganda still have 3 games to go against lower-ranked Tunisia, Morocco and Zimbabwe - and Uganda have home advantage in every single one. A win would suddenly make Uganda the 76% favourite to qualify as Africa 2, and Kenya's RWC qualification hopes would drop to 2.0%. [SIZE=2](it would substantially help Namibia, Canada, Hong Kong and Germany's qualification chances though, as Uganda would still only be at 1.2%)[/SIZE] This game Kenya can't afford to lose. [/QUOTE]
Verification
Post reply
Forums
Rugby Union
Tier Two & Three Rugby
Rugby World Cup 2019 Qualifying & Repechage Tournament
Top
