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Rugby Union
Tier Two & Three Rugby
Rugby World Cup 2019 Qualifying & Repechage Tournament
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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 910109" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Projected Probabilities: </strong></span></p><p></p><p>Kenya got a BP win out of a competitive game, picking up some RP in the process, so they are looking stronger - on paper at least. The prospects for the African underdogs took a massive hit. There's now a 12% chance that Namibia and Kenya will <em>both</em> be in South Africa's pool.</p><p></p><p>Canada drop some RP after a big loss to the USA, making them slightly more vulnerable at the Repechage Tournament, though they're still the 2nd choice.</p><p></p><p><strong>Pool B as Africa 1:</strong> Namibia 74% <span style="font-size: 10px">-6</span>, Kenya 26% <span style="font-size: 10px">+7</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Uganda <0.1% -0.2, Morocco 0% -0.5, Zimbabwe 0% -<0.1, Tunisia 0% -<0.1%</span></p><p><strong>Pool A as Play-Off Winner:</strong> Samoa 99.7%<span style="font-size: 10px"> NC</span>,<span style="font-size: 10px"> Germany 0.3% NC</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"></span></p><p>Repechage Tournament Participants:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Play-Off Loser: Germany 99.7% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Samoa 0.3% NC</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Americas 3: Canada</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Africa 2: Kenya 71% <span style="font-size: 10px">+1</span>, Namibia 25% <span style="font-size: 10px">+7</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Uganda 2.5% -2.5, Morocco 0.8% -4.2, Tunisia 0.5% -0.7, Zimbabwe 0.5% -0.1</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Asia/Oceania: Hong Kong >99.9% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Cook Islands <0.1% NC</span></li> </ul><p></p><p><strong>Pool B as Repechage Winner:</strong> Hong Kong 43% <span style="font-size: 10px">+1</span>, Canada 37% <span style="font-size: 10px">-4</span>, Germany 8.0% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Kenya 7.0% <span style="font-size: 10px">+1.5, Namibia 4.5% +1.5, Samoa 0.2% NC</span></p><p>Repechage Runner-Up: Canada 32% <span style="font-size: 10px">-1</span>, Hong Kong 30% <span style="font-size: 10px">-2</span>, Germany 17% <span style="font-size: 10px">-1</span>, Kenya 14% <span style="font-size: 10px">+2</span>, Namibia 6.5%<span style="font-size: 10px"> +2.0, Samoa 0.1% NC, Uganda 0.1% -0.1, Other <0.1% -0.1</span></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>to any Pool (3):</strong> Samoa 99.9% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Namibia 78% <span style="font-size: 10px">-6</span>, Hong Kong 43% <span style="font-size: 10px">+1</span>, Canada 37% <span style="font-size: 10px">-4</span>, Kenya 33% <span style="font-size: 10px">+9</span>, Germany 8.5% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC, Uganda <0.1% -0.2, Other <0.1% -0.6, </span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Chances of Pool Placements:</strong></span></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">No teams still in qualifying have a chance of a Quarterfinal. (Samoa 0% <span style="font-size: 10px">-0.1</span>)</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Top 3 in Pool: Samoa 3.5% <span style="font-size: 10px">-2.0</span>, Hong Kong 0.5% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Canada 0.3% <span style="font-size: 10px">-0.2</span>, Namibia 0.2% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC, <span style="font-size: 10px">(Russia 0.2% -0.4)</span></span></li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Top 4 in Pool A: Samoa 68% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC (and Russia 32% NC)</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Top 4 in Pool B: Namibia 36% <span style="font-size: 10px">-1</span>, Hong Kong 27% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Canada 22% <span style="font-size: 10px">-3</span>, Kenya 11% <span style="font-size: 10px">+3.5</span>, Germany 3.5% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Samoa 0.2% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Other 0% <span style="font-size: 10px">-0.1%</span></li> </ul></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 910109, member: 73940"] [SIZE=5][B]Projected Probabilities: [/B][/SIZE] Kenya got a BP win out of a competitive game, picking up some RP in the process, so they are looking stronger - on paper at least. The prospects for the African underdogs took a massive hit. There's now a 12% chance that Namibia and Kenya will [I]both[/I] be in South Africa's pool. Canada drop some RP after a big loss to the USA, making them slightly more vulnerable at the Repechage Tournament, though they're still the 2nd choice. [B]Pool B as Africa 1:[/B] Namibia 74% [SIZE=2]-6[/SIZE], Kenya 26% [SIZE=2]+7[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Uganda <0.1% -0.2, Morocco 0% -0.5, Zimbabwe 0% -<0.1, Tunisia 0% -<0.1%[/SIZE] [B]Pool A as Play-Off Winner:[/B] Samoa 99.7%[SIZE=2] NC[/SIZE],[SIZE=2] Germany 0.3% NC [/SIZE] Repechage Tournament Participants: [LIST] [*]Play-Off Loser: Germany 99.7% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Samoa 0.3% NC[/SIZE] [*]Americas 3: Canada [*]Africa 2: Kenya 71% [SIZE=2]+1[/SIZE], Namibia 25% [SIZE=2]+7[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Uganda 2.5% -2.5, Morocco 0.8% -4.2, Tunisia 0.5% -0.7, Zimbabwe 0.5% -0.1[/SIZE] [*]Asia/Oceania: Hong Kong >99.9% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Cook Islands <0.1% NC[/SIZE] [/LIST] [B]Pool B as Repechage Winner:[/B] Hong Kong 43% [SIZE=2]+1[/SIZE], Canada 37% [SIZE=2]-4[/SIZE], Germany 8.0% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Kenya 7.0% [SIZE=2]+1.5, Namibia 4.5% +1.5, Samoa 0.2% NC[/SIZE] Repechage Runner-Up: Canada 32% [SIZE=2]-1[/SIZE], Hong Kong 30% [SIZE=2]-2[/SIZE], Germany 17% [SIZE=2]-1[/SIZE], Kenya 14% [SIZE=2]+2[/SIZE], Namibia 6.5%[SIZE=2] +2.0, Samoa 0.1% NC, Uganda 0.1% -0.1, Other <0.1% -0.1[/SIZE] [B] to any Pool (3):[/B] Samoa 99.9% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Namibia 78% [SIZE=2]-6[/SIZE], Hong Kong 43% [SIZE=2]+1[/SIZE], Canada 37% [SIZE=2]-4[/SIZE], Kenya 33% [SIZE=2]+9[/SIZE], Germany 8.5% [SIZE=2]NC, Uganda <0.1% -0.2, Other <0.1% -0.6, [/SIZE] [SIZE=5][B]Chances of Pool Placements:[/B][/SIZE] [LIST] [*]No teams still in qualifying have a chance of a Quarterfinal. (Samoa 0% [SIZE=2]-0.1[/SIZE]) [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Top 3 in Pool: Samoa 3.5% [SIZE=2]-2.0[/SIZE], Hong Kong 0.5% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Canada 0.3% [SIZE=2]-0.2[/SIZE], Namibia 0.2% [SIZE=2]NC, [SIZE=2](Russia 0.2% -0.4)[/SIZE][/SIZE] [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Top 4 in Pool A: Samoa 68% [SIZE=2]NC (and Russia 32% NC)[/SIZE] [*]Top 4 in Pool B: Namibia 36% [SIZE=2]-1[/SIZE], Hong Kong 27% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Canada 22% [SIZE=2]-3[/SIZE], Kenya 11% [SIZE=2]+3.5[/SIZE], Germany 3.5% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Samoa 0.2% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Other 0% [SIZE=2]-0.1%[/SIZE] [/LIST] [/QUOTE]
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