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Tier Two & Three Rugby
Rugby World Cup 2019 Qualifying & Repechage Tournament
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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 908650" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Update:</strong></span></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>17 - 17 countries had guaranteed spaces in the final 23:</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC (WRR 1-8, 10-13)<br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification (WRR 15, 9, 14)<br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">16 - Samoa (16) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off <strong>vs Germany</strong>, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">17 - Canada (22) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>20 - 3 countries have earned* spaces in the final 23:</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">18 - Uruguay (18) earned the Final 23 spot for the Americas, and qualified directly as Americas 2</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">19 - Russia (19) qualified directly as Europe 1</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">20 - Germany (29) earned* the Europe 2 spot, and can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa, or the Repechage Tournament</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>28 - 8 countries are still competing for the last 3 spaces in the Final 23:</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">26 - 6 countries from Africa are still able to qualify directly as Africa 1, as well as having the Repechage Tournament as a Plan B. (as Africa 2).<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Namibia (24), Kenya (28), Uganda (37), Morocco (38), Tunisia (42), Zimbabwe (44)</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">28 - Hong Kong (21) and the Cook Islands (54) are only able to qualify at the Repechage Tournament. (As Asia 1/Oceania 4 Play-Off winner)</li> </ul></li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">62 countries eliminated - Including Romania (17), Spain (20) and <strong>Portugal (23)</strong>.</li> </ul><p><span style="font-size: 9px">* - Well... I'm not sure "earned" is exactly the right word in the case of Russia and Germany</span></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Projected Probabilities: </strong></span></p><p></p><p>Hong Kong takes over from Canada as the slight favourite to win the Repechage Tournament, Samoa reaches 99.9% chance of qualifying, while Germany makes a credible appearance at 8.5% chance of qualifying.</p><p></p><p>Morocco vs Kenya this weekend might be interesting - Kenya is only favoured 68%-32%, and a loss here would open up the Africa 2 position into potentially a 5-way contest.</p><p></p><p><strong>Pool B as Africa 1:</strong> Namibia 80% <span style="font-size: 10px">+1</span>, Kenya 19% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Morocco 0.5% -0.3, Uganda 0.2% -0.2, Zimbabwe <0.1% -0.2, Tunisia <0.1% NC</span></p><p><strong>Pool A as Play-Off Winner:</strong> Samoa 99.7%<span style="font-size: 10px"> +1.9</span>,<span style="font-size: 10px"> Germany 0.3% +0.3, <strong>Portugal 0% -2.2</strong></span></p><p></p><p>Repechage Tournament Participants:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Play-Off Loser: <strong>Germany 99.7% <span style="font-size: 10px">+60</span></strong>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Samoa 0.3% -1.9, <strong>Portugal 0% -58</strong></span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Americas 3: Canada</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Africa 2: Kenya 70% <span style="font-size: 10px">+1</span>, Namibia 18% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Uganda 5.0% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Morocco 5.0% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Zimbabwe 0.6% -0.8, Tunisia 1.2% NC</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Asia/Oceania: Hong Kong >99.9% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Cook Islands <0.1% NC</span></li> </ul><p></p><p><strong>Pool B as Repechage Winner:</strong> <u>Hong Kong 42% <span style="font-size: 10px">+12</span></u>, Canada 41% <span style="font-size: 10px">-7</span>, <strong>Germany 8.0% <span style="font-size: 10px">+6.4</span></strong>, Kenya 5.5% <span style="font-size: 10px">+2.5, Namibia 3.0% +0.5, Samoa 0.2% -1.4, <strong>Portugal 0% -13 </strong></span></p><p>Repechage Runner-Up: <u>Canada 33% <span style="font-size: 10px">+3</span></u>, Hong Kong 32% <span style="font-size: 10px">-2</span>, <strong>Germany 18% <span style="font-size: 10px">+12.5</span></strong>, Kenya 12% <span style="font-size: 10px">+3.5</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Namibia 4.5% +0.5, Uganda 0.2% +0.1, Morocco 0.1% +0.1, Samoa 0.1% -0.3, <strong>Portugal 0% -17</strong>, Other <0.1%</span></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>to any Pool (3):</strong> Samoa <u>99.9% <span style="font-size: 10px">+0.5</span></u>, Namibia 84% <span style="font-size: 10px">+2</span>, <u>Hong Kong 42% <span style="font-size: 10px">+12</span></u>, Canada 41% <span style="font-size: 10px">-7</span>, Kenya 24% <span style="font-size: 10px">+2</span>, <strong>Germany 8.5% </strong><span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>+7.0</strong>, Morocco 0.5% -0.3, Uganda 0.2% -0.2, Zimbabwe <0.1% -0.2, Tunisia <0.1% NC, <strong>Portugal 0% -15</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Chances of Pool Placements:</strong></span></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The only team still in qualifying with any chance of a <strong>Quarterfinal</strong> is Samoa, with <0.1%. (via Pool A, against New Zealand)</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Top 3 in Pool: Samoa 5.5%, <span style="font-size: 10px">(Russia 0.6%)</span>, Hong Kong 0.5%, Canada 0.5%, Namibia 0.2%</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Top 4 in Pool A: Samoa 68% <span style="font-size: 10px">(and Russia 32%)</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Top 4 in Pool B: Namibia 37%, Hong Kong 27%, Canada 25%, Kenya 7.5%, Germany 3.5%, Samoa 0.2%, Morocco <0.1%, Other <0.1%</li> </ul></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 908650, member: 73940"] [SIZE=5][B]Update:[/B][/SIZE] [LIST] [*][B]17 - 17 countries had guaranteed spaces in the final 23:[/B] [LIST] [*]12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC (WRR 1-8, 10-13) [*]15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification (WRR 15, 9, 14) [*]16 - Samoa (16) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off [B]vs Germany[/B], and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament [*]17 - Canada (22) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament [/LIST] [*][B]20 - 3 countries have earned* spaces in the final 23:[/B] [LIST] [*]18 - Uruguay (18) earned the Final 23 spot for the Americas, and qualified directly as Americas 2 [*]19 - Russia (19) qualified directly as Europe 1 [*]20 - Germany (29) earned* the Europe 2 spot, and can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa, or the Repechage Tournament [/LIST] [*][B]28 - 8 countries are still competing for the last 3 spaces in the Final 23:[/B] [LIST] [*]26 - 6 countries from Africa are still able to qualify directly as Africa 1, as well as having the Repechage Tournament as a Plan B. (as Africa 2). [LIST] [*]Namibia (24), Kenya (28), Uganda (37), Morocco (38), Tunisia (42), Zimbabwe (44) [/LIST] [*]28 - Hong Kong (21) and the Cook Islands (54) are only able to qualify at the Repechage Tournament. (As Asia 1/Oceania 4 Play-Off winner) [/LIST] [/LIST] [LIST] [*]62 countries eliminated - Including Romania (17), Spain (20) and [B]Portugal (23)[/B]. [/LIST] [SIZE=1]* - Well... I'm not sure "earned" is exactly the right word in the case of Russia and Germany[/SIZE] [SIZE=5][B]Projected Probabilities: [/B][/SIZE] Hong Kong takes over from Canada as the slight favourite to win the Repechage Tournament, Samoa reaches 99.9% chance of qualifying, while Germany makes a credible appearance at 8.5% chance of qualifying. Morocco vs Kenya this weekend might be interesting - Kenya is only favoured 68%-32%, and a loss here would open up the Africa 2 position into potentially a 5-way contest. [B]Pool B as Africa 1:[/B] Namibia 80% [SIZE=2]+1[/SIZE], Kenya 19% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Morocco 0.5% -0.3, Uganda 0.2% -0.2, Zimbabwe <0.1% -0.2, Tunisia <0.1% NC[/SIZE] [B]Pool A as Play-Off Winner:[/B] Samoa 99.7%[SIZE=2] +1.9[/SIZE],[SIZE=2] Germany 0.3% +0.3, [B]Portugal 0% -2.2[/B][/SIZE] Repechage Tournament Participants: [LIST] [*]Play-Off Loser: [B]Germany 99.7% [SIZE=2]+60[/SIZE][/B], [SIZE=2]Samoa 0.3% -1.9, [B]Portugal 0% -58[/B][/SIZE] [*]Americas 3: Canada [*]Africa 2: Kenya 70% [SIZE=2]+1[/SIZE], Namibia 18% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Uganda 5.0% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Morocco 5.0% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Zimbabwe 0.6% -0.8, Tunisia 1.2% NC[/SIZE] [*]Asia/Oceania: Hong Kong >99.9% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Cook Islands <0.1% NC[/SIZE] [/LIST] [B]Pool B as Repechage Winner:[/B] [U]Hong Kong 42% [SIZE=2]+12[/SIZE][/U], Canada 41% [SIZE=2]-7[/SIZE], [B]Germany 8.0% [SIZE=2]+6.4[/SIZE][/B], Kenya 5.5% [SIZE=2]+2.5, Namibia 3.0% +0.5, Samoa 0.2% -1.4, [B]Portugal 0% -13 [/B][/SIZE] Repechage Runner-Up: [U]Canada 33% [SIZE=2]+3[/SIZE][/U], Hong Kong 32% [SIZE=2]-2[/SIZE], [B]Germany 18% [SIZE=2]+12.5[/SIZE][/B], Kenya 12% [SIZE=2]+3.5[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Namibia 4.5% +0.5, Uganda 0.2% +0.1, Morocco 0.1% +0.1, Samoa 0.1% -0.3, [B]Portugal 0% -17[/B], Other <0.1%[/SIZE] [B] to any Pool (3):[/B] Samoa [U]99.9% [SIZE=2]+0.5[/SIZE][/U], Namibia 84% [SIZE=2]+2[/SIZE], [U]Hong Kong 42% [SIZE=2]+12[/SIZE][/U], Canada 41% [SIZE=2]-7[/SIZE], Kenya 24% [SIZE=2]+2[/SIZE], [B]Germany 8.5% [/B][SIZE=2][B]+7.0[/B], Morocco 0.5% -0.3, Uganda 0.2% -0.2, Zimbabwe <0.1% -0.2, Tunisia <0.1% NC, [B]Portugal 0% -15[/B] [/SIZE] [SIZE=5][B]Chances of Pool Placements:[/B][/SIZE] [LIST] [*]The only team still in qualifying with any chance of a [B]Quarterfinal[/B] is Samoa, with <0.1%. (via Pool A, against New Zealand) [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Top 3 in Pool: Samoa 5.5%, [SIZE=2](Russia 0.6%)[/SIZE], Hong Kong 0.5%, Canada 0.5%, Namibia 0.2% [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Top 4 in Pool A: Samoa 68% [SIZE=2](and Russia 32%)[/SIZE] [*]Top 4 in Pool B: Namibia 37%, Hong Kong 27%, Canada 25%, Kenya 7.5%, Germany 3.5%, Samoa 0.2%, Morocco <0.1%, Other <0.1% [/LIST] [/QUOTE]
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