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Rugby World Cup 2019 Qualifying & Repechage Tournament
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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 906955" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>France is already automatically qualified for RWC 2023 because they're hosting it. So if France finished 4th in Pool in 2019, there would be 13 AQ teams and only 7 places open to qualifying.</p><p></p><p>-----------------------------------</p><p></p><p>Update:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including:<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC (WRR 1-8, 10-12, 14)<br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification (WRR 15, 9, 13)<br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">16 - Samoa (16) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Europe 2, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">17 - Canada (21) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">18 - Uruguay (18) earned the spot for the Americas and qualified directly as Americas 2</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">19 - <strong>Russia (19)</strong> will have qualified directly as Europe 1</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">25 - 6 countries from Africa are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the Repechage Tournament as a Plan B.<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Namibia (24), Kenya (28), Uganda (37), Morocco (38), Tunisia (42), Zimbabwe (44)</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">29 - 4 further countries can not qualify directly, but have one chance to qualify for the final 23.<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">27 - <strong>Germany (29)</strong> and Portugal (23) can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa, or the Repechage Tournament.</li> </ul><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">29 - <strong>Hong Kong (22)</strong> and the Cook Islands (54) are only able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament.</li> </ul></li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">61 countries eliminated - Including <strong>Romania (17) and Spain (20)</strong> and also WRR 25-27 & 30-36 (be, Brazil, nl, Chile, Korea, cz, ch, lt, pl, ua).</li> </ul><p>This weekend, Germany host Portugal <span style="font-size: 10px">(Portugal is favoured 60%-40%)</span> and the loser is eliminated. Also African qualifying starts - the only remaining intra-continent qualifying. After that it's only Repechage to go.</p><p></p><p>Time for some projected probabilities:</p><p></p><p><strong>Pool B as Africa 1:</strong> Namibia 79% <span style="font-size: 10px">-7</span>, Kenya 19% <span style="font-size: 10px">+8</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Morocco 0.8% -0.2, Uganda 0.4% -0.6, Zimbabwe 0.3% +0.2, Tunisia <0.1% nc</span></p><p><strong>Pool A as Europe 1: </strong>Russia <span style="font-size: 10px">+100 (Romania -100)</span></p><p><strong>Pool A as Play-Off Winner:</strong> Samoa 97.8%<span style="font-size: 10px"> +10</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Portugal 2.2% +1.7, Germany 0% nc, Spain 0% -12</span></p><p></p><p>Repechage Tournament Participants:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Play-Off Loser: Portugal 58%, Germany 40%, <span style="font-size: 10px">Samoa 2.2%</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Americas 3: Canada</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Africa 2: Kenya 69%, Namibia 18%, Uganda 5.0%, Morocco 5.0%, <span style="font-size: 10px">Zimbabwe 1.4%, Tunisia 1.2%</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Asia/Oceania: Hong Kong >99.9%, <span style="font-size: 10px">Cook Islands <0.1%</span></li> </ul><p></p><p><strong>Pool B as Repechage Winner:</strong> Canada 48% <span style="font-size: 10px">+14</span>, Hong Kong 30% <span style="font-size: 10px">+15</span>, Portugal 13% <span style="font-size: 10px">+9</span>, <span style="font-size: 10px">Kenya 3.0% +2.2, Namibia 2.5% +1.9, Samoa 1.6% -8.5, Germany 1.6% +1.6, Spain 0% -35, </span></p><p>Repechage Runner-Up: Hong Kong 34%, Canada 30%, Portugal 17%, Kenya 8.5%, Germany 5.5%, <span style="font-size: 10px">Namibia 4.0%, Samoa 0.4%, Uganda 0.1%, Morocco <0.1%</span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 906955, member: 73940"] France is already automatically qualified for RWC 2023 because they're hosting it. So if France finished 4th in Pool in 2019, there would be 13 AQ teams and only 7 places open to qualifying. ----------------------------------- Update: [LIST] [*]17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including: [LIST] [*]12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC (WRR 1-8, 10-12, 14) [*]15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification (WRR 15, 9, 13) [*]16 - Samoa (16) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Europe 2, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament [*]17 - Canada (21) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament [/LIST] [*]18 - Uruguay (18) earned the spot for the Americas and qualified directly as Americas 2 [*]19 - [B]Russia (19)[/B] will have qualified directly as Europe 1 [*]25 - 6 countries from Africa are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the Repechage Tournament as a Plan B. [LIST] [*]Namibia (24), Kenya (28), Uganda (37), Morocco (38), Tunisia (42), Zimbabwe (44) [/LIST] [*]29 - 4 further countries can not qualify directly, but have one chance to qualify for the final 23. [LIST] [*]27 - [B]Germany (29)[/B] and Portugal (23) can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa, or the Repechage Tournament. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]29 - [B]Hong Kong (22)[/B] and the Cook Islands (54) are only able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament. [/LIST] [/LIST] [LIST] [*]61 countries eliminated - Including [B]Romania (17) and Spain (20)[/B] and also WRR 25-27 & 30-36 (be, Brazil, nl, Chile, Korea, cz, ch, lt, pl, ua). [/LIST] This weekend, Germany host Portugal [SIZE=2](Portugal is favoured 60%-40%)[/SIZE] and the loser is eliminated. Also African qualifying starts - the only remaining intra-continent qualifying. After that it's only Repechage to go. Time for some projected probabilities: [B]Pool B as Africa 1:[/B] Namibia 79% [SIZE=2]-7[/SIZE], Kenya 19% [SIZE=2]+8[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Morocco 0.8% -0.2, Uganda 0.4% -0.6, Zimbabwe 0.3% +0.2, Tunisia <0.1% nc[/SIZE] [B]Pool A as Europe 1: [/B]Russia [SIZE=2]+100 (Romania -100)[/SIZE] [B]Pool A as Play-Off Winner:[/B] Samoa 97.8%[SIZE=2] +10[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Portugal 2.2% +1.7, Germany 0% nc, Spain 0% -12[/SIZE] Repechage Tournament Participants: [LIST] [*]Play-Off Loser: Portugal 58%, Germany 40%, [SIZE=2]Samoa 2.2%[/SIZE] [*]Americas 3: Canada [*]Africa 2: Kenya 69%, Namibia 18%, Uganda 5.0%, Morocco 5.0%, [SIZE=2]Zimbabwe 1.4%, Tunisia 1.2%[/SIZE] [*]Asia/Oceania: Hong Kong >99.9%, [SIZE=2]Cook Islands <0.1%[/SIZE] [/LIST] [B]Pool B as Repechage Winner:[/B] Canada 48% [SIZE=2]+14[/SIZE], Hong Kong 30% [SIZE=2]+15[/SIZE], Portugal 13% [SIZE=2]+9[/SIZE], [SIZE=2]Kenya 3.0% +2.2, Namibia 2.5% +1.9, Samoa 1.6% -8.5, Germany 1.6% +1.6, Spain 0% -35, [/SIZE] Repechage Runner-Up: Hong Kong 34%, Canada 30%, Portugal 17%, Kenya 8.5%, Germany 5.5%, [SIZE=2]Namibia 4.0%, Samoa 0.4%, Uganda 0.1%, Morocco <0.1%[/SIZE] [/QUOTE]
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