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Tier Two & Three Rugby
Rugby World Cup 2019 Qualifying & Repechage Tournament
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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 903930" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>Malaysia (already eliminated by Korea last week) just got slaughtered in Hong Kong. So with one game to go in Asian qualifying, Hong Kong has 14 points and +149 PD and Korea 10 points and +71 PD. Hong Kong also lead Korea head-to-head by 4 table points and +9 PD.</p><p></p><p>The final game is Hong Kong vs Korea this Saturday.</p><p>One of those teams will qualify to a Play-off against the Cook Islands <span style="font-size: 10px">(away 30/06 & home 07/07)</span> to reach the Qualifying Tournament. The other will be eliminated.</p><p></p><p>Barring a situation where only the losing team earns a try bonus point, Korea qualify if they win by 39+, and Hong Kong qualify if they lose by 7 or less.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">(if the margin is in between, who qualifies depends on try bonus points if Korea earns one but Hong Kong doesn't, and beyond that I don't know as I'm not sure what tie-breakers are used)</span></p><p></p><p>By this Thursday, European qualifying should be resolved from legal limbo, (other than the Portugal play-off), so on Saturday we should be down to:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including:<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC (WRR 1-9, 11, 12, 14)<br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification (WRR 15, 10, 13)<br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">16 - Samoa (16) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Europe 2, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">17 - Canada (21) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">18 - Uruguay (18) earned the spot for the Americas and qualified directly as Americas 2</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">19 - <strong>Provisionally Russia (19)</strong> will have qualified directly as Europe 1</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">25 - 6 countries from Africa are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the Repechage Tournament as a Plan B.<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Namibia (24), Kenya (28), Uganda (37), Morocco (38), Tunisia (42), Zimbabwe (44)</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">29 - 4 further countries can not qualify directly, but have one chance to qualify for the final 23.<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">27 - <strong>Provisionally Germany (29)</strong> and also Portugal (23) can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa, or the Repechage Tournament.</li> </ul><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">29 - <strong>Either Hong Kong (22) or Korea (31)</strong> and also the Cook Islands (54) are only able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament.</li> </ul></li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">61 countries eliminated - Including <strong>provisionally Romania (17) and Spain (20)</strong> and also WRR 25-27 & 30 (Belgium, Brazil, Netherlands, Chile).</li> </ul><p>Maybe after that, I'll crank up my probability simulations again. In time for Germany vs Portugal and the June tests WRR changes (except the one in DC).</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 903930, member: 73940"] Malaysia (already eliminated by Korea last week) just got slaughtered in Hong Kong. So with one game to go in Asian qualifying, Hong Kong has 14 points and +149 PD and Korea 10 points and +71 PD. Hong Kong also lead Korea head-to-head by 4 table points and +9 PD. The final game is Hong Kong vs Korea this Saturday. One of those teams will qualify to a Play-off against the Cook Islands [SIZE=2](away 30/06 & home 07/07)[/SIZE] to reach the Qualifying Tournament. The other will be eliminated. Barring a situation where only the losing team earns a try bonus point, Korea qualify if they win by 39+, and Hong Kong qualify if they lose by 7 or less. [SIZE=2](if the margin is in between, who qualifies depends on try bonus points if Korea earns one but Hong Kong doesn't, and beyond that I don't know as I'm not sure what tie-breakers are used)[/SIZE] By this Thursday, European qualifying should be resolved from legal limbo, (other than the Portugal play-off), so on Saturday we should be down to: [LIST] [*]17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including: [LIST] [*]12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC (WRR 1-9, 11, 12, 14) [*]15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification (WRR 15, 10, 13) [*]16 - Samoa (16) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Europe 2, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament [*]17 - Canada (21) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament [/LIST] [*]18 - Uruguay (18) earned the spot for the Americas and qualified directly as Americas 2 [*]19 - [B]Provisionally Russia (19)[/B] will have qualified directly as Europe 1 [*]25 - 6 countries from Africa are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the Repechage Tournament as a Plan B. [LIST] [*]Namibia (24), Kenya (28), Uganda (37), Morocco (38), Tunisia (42), Zimbabwe (44) [/LIST] [*]29 - 4 further countries can not qualify directly, but have one chance to qualify for the final 23. [LIST] [*]27 - [B]Provisionally Germany (29)[/B] and also Portugal (23) can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa, or the Repechage Tournament. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]29 - [B]Either Hong Kong (22) or Korea (31)[/B] and also the Cook Islands (54) are only able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament. [/LIST] [/LIST] [LIST] [*]61 countries eliminated - Including [B]provisionally Romania (17) and Spain (20)[/B] and also WRR 25-27 & 30 (Belgium, Brazil, Netherlands, Chile). [/LIST] Maybe after that, I'll crank up my probability simulations again. In time for Germany vs Portugal and the June tests WRR changes (except the one in DC). [/QUOTE]
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